Euro (€) Currency Thread

inspector_monkfish

1.1160 now

inspector_monkfish

12:15 04Nov09 EURO SEEN AT 91 PENCE IN 3 MTHS, 90P IN 6, 87P IN 12 (91P, 89P, 87P IN OCT POLL)
12:15 04Nov09 GBP SEEN AT $1.62 IN 1 MTH, $1.64 IN 6, $1.65 IN 12 ($1.60, $1.62, $1.65 IN OCT POLL)
12:15 04Nov09 POLL-Pound to hover against dollar in coming year


LONDON, Nov 4 - The pound will gradually strengthen against the dollar over the coming 12 months but is unlikely to move much as a dovish central bank and weak fundamentals weigh on the currency, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

The monthly poll of almost 70 analysts, taken this week, saw the pound <GBP=> at $1.62 in one month, slightly down from the $1.65 it was trading at earlier on Wednesday but above the $1.60 predicted last month.

Median forecasts saw cable strengthening slightly to $1.64 in six months and to $1.65 in a year. This compares to $1.62 and $1.65 forecast in October's poll.

"With the Bank of England set to announce a further increase in quantitative easing on Thursday ... it is hard to put forward the case for an intrinsically higher pound-dollar," said Kenneth Broux at Lloyds TSB.

The Bank of England has cut interest rates to an historic low of 0.5 percent and has been injecting billions of pounds directly into the money supply to try and kick-start the economy.

The central bank is expected to leave rates on hold on Thursday at the end of a two-day meeting and well into 2010 but is seen raising its quantitative easing programme spending, with economists split between an increase to 200 billion pounds or 225 billion pounds from the current 175 billion pounds. The lack of consensus on the central bank's next move has further muddied the waters for sterling.

The range of forecasts was therefore relatively wide, from $1.39 to $1.86 in a year, marginally tighter than last month's poll but all a long way from the $2.10 the pound was at just under two years ago and the 23-year low of around $1.35 hit in January.

Sterling hit a 5-month low last month against the dollar after inflation data cemented views that interest rates were staying near zero and concerns about the UK's fiscal position prompted dealers to dump the pound.

"The combination of a large fiscal deficit, dovish central bank and weak fundamentals should see sterling underperform into year-end and into 2010," said Camilla Sutton at Scotia Capital.

EURO EVEN

Against the euro, the pound <EURGBP=> was seen gaining some ground through the coming year but forecasts were little changed from last month despite the improving outlook for the 16-nation bloc's economy.

The currencies nearly reached parity at the end of last year but the pound has rebounded since and cross rates calculated by Reuters show it trading at 91 pence in three months and 87 pence in a year.

That is in line with forecasts from last month's poll and not far from the 89 pence it was at earlier on Wednesday.

"In the context of the unexpected expansion of QE, we have revised up our end-2009 EUR-GBP forecast. However, we still look for EUR-GBP to correct lower in 2010," said Mengxian Jiao at BoAML.

Britain's economy contracted in the third quarter, quashing hopes the downturn had ended and marking the longest recession on record, surprising markets that had expected a return to growth.

Data released on Monday showed British manufacturing activity grew at its fastest rate in two years in October, while figures earlier on Wednesday showed the dominant service sector saw its strongest activity since August 2007.

Sterling volatility against the dollar was seen falling over the coming month. Analysts say the divergence of forecasts in Reuters currency polls offers a leading indicator of exchange rate volatility in the following month.

inspector_monkfish

1.1125 trading this morning

inspector_monkfish

1.1145 trading at mom

inspector_monkfish

now i've finally hit the the top (and Wu Tang has gone quiet) is anyone else brave enough to challenge me???

http://fantasyfootball.skysports.com/

charlearose

i have around 7000 irish euros what is the best way to exchange them back into sterling is it better to wait until the rate goes up i dont need the sterling desperatly at moment but do want to get a good rate for them the buy back rate in the uk is crap so wondering if better to wait till i return to ireland and change them up then if i will get a better exchange rate

thanks

jammin_2

charlearose wrote: »

i have around 7000 irish euros what is the best way to exchange them back into sterling is it better to wait until the rate goes up i dont need the sterling desperatly at moment but do want to get a good rate for them the buy back rate in the uk is crap so wondering if better to wait till i return to ireland and change them up then if i will get a better exchange rate

thanks

Well seeing as you can only use Irish Euros in Ireland* I would suggest waiting.

*there may or may not be a sarcastic tone to this post which is based on the inaccuracy of that which is quoted.

inspector_monkfish

1.1170 trading now

inspector_monkfish

1.1100 trading after Fitch comments

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08:32 10Nov09 Sterling Drops, Then Stabilizes, On Fitch UK Ratings Talk




LONDON--Sterling fell sharply against other major currencies in Asian trading hours after concerns over the U.K.'s ballooning budget deficit resurfaced.

The pound tumbled from $1.6750 against the dollar to the day's low of $1.6605 after a senior official at Fitch Ratings indicated in an interview that the U.K. is more at risk of losing its AAA status than other major economies.

The euro spiked from GBP0.8940 against the pound to the day's high of
GBP0.9018,

David Riley, the agency's co-head of global sovereign ratings, later
clarified that the U.K.'s current stable rating outlook "reflected our
expectation that the U.K. government will articulate a stronger fiscal
consolidation program next year."

That helped the currency to stabilize. By 0822 GMT, the pound has settled at around $1.6658 against the dollar, while the euro traded at GBP0.8992.

"Concern over the U.K.'s fiscal policy is not new and has been flagged as a
risk by other rating agencies," said Stuart Bennett, a currencies analyst at
French bank Calyon in London.

This has not prevented sterling from being a star performer of late, Bennett
added, noting that the currency has gained more than any other G10 currency
against the dollar over the past month.

inspector_monkfish

1.1045 trading this morning