House price discussion

ReportInvestor

meanmachine wrote:

I'm sure parts of NI are beautiful and very deseriable, but what is the economic driver behind all of this? Has the population of NI gone up by a quarter in the last year?

Crazy.

It is very beautiful. I guess it's the growing peace dividend. Businesses are now investing in NI in the belief that the troubles will not start up again.

GDB2222

meanmachine wrote:

Really the best index is land registry which looks at prixes per quarter, based on actual sales prices.

I think there are a few probs with the Land Registry index. The main one is that it measures average prices of property sold, but it does not adjust for the mix of houses sold. So, if there are fewer first time buyers, the average price seen by the Land Registry tends to rise. This is because FTB properties tend to be cheaper than the rest of the housing stock.

So, in theory you could have a position where the prices of all properties fall, but the FTB market dries up, so the only transactions are at the more expensive end of the market, so the LR index actually rises.

For many years, Nationwide (and I think Halifax) have used a more sophisticated index system that corrects for the mix of houses sold. Hope that helps, and congrats if you have kept awake to this point.

meanmachine_2

This is interesting.

Now the property muppets are bickering about their respective house price measures.

Not surprisingly, Hometrack are claiming that the Nationwide figures are rather suspect. Lenders and estate agents trying to talk up the market? Never!

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8210-1675067,00.html

QUOTE: Hometrack's house price figures are based on sale price, while Halifax and Nationwide's are done at the point of mortgage approval.

I know which index I'd go with...

Ritter

The graph for house price inflation is flattening out. :j When the higher rate of inflation from last year is factored out of the current year on year index calculations to be replaced by the lower inflation numbers being experienced for this year then eventually the graph will be flat and then will fall indicating house price deflation :j :j . Wake up at the back...

So the annual rate of inflation being quoted month to month is coming down(7% for the year to May followed now by 4% to June and looking something like 2% next month and zero the following month and then into negative territory thereafter).

BUT...The BoE monetary policy committee (whatever they're called) will be trying to fine judge the next cut in interest rates to prevent significant property price falls because with that comes associated feel-bad indicators such as shoppers spending less. Less spent on estate agents (lol...poor things), less spent on solicitors (what a shame), less spent on furnishings, washing machines and so on.

Watch this space.

deemy2004

The sellers are still stuck in fantasy boom land and not cutting their prices hence the number of properties on estate agent books continues to grow as their is stalemate between buyers and sellers.

Yeh an interest rate cut this year looks highly likely but I don't think its going to be of much use to the housing market as GDP growth continues to be estimated lower..

Watch the currency for reaction to ever revised lower GDP growth which will mean a fall in the £ and hence likelyhood that even if the bank of england wants to cut rates more than the expected 0.25%, they won't be able to do so, especially with the Fed raising rates and the Euro nutcases unable to cut their own rates despite the fact that euroland has been stagnating for several years now. !

dprovan

re the N.I rise, what you need to remember is that N.I. was a long way behind in relation to house prices to start with. Whilst there has been a 24% rise in the last year the average house price here is probably only now falling into compariable prices of their like in the rest of Britain.

And it has been catching up for the reasons correctly stated by reporter.

Also worth noting that the outlook for the next few years here is continued growth according to top valuation expert see https://www.propertynews.com for link

GingeG

I am so confused I have no idea what to offer on any house I view now I hat Britain wish I could live abroad this country is scraping by on people working in shops and on loans!!! ##

We have no heavy indsutry anymore what a crap situation.

I think some people are in for a huge shocjk pretty soon.

Pheno

GingeG wrote:

I am so confused I have no idea what to offer on any house I view now I hat Britain wish I could live abroad this country is scraping by on people working in shops and on loans!!! ##

We have no heavy indsutry anymore what a crap situation.

I think some people are in for a huge shocjk pretty soon.

tooo rihgt! thiss country sukcs - we cant evn affordd decent keybaords!!!!!111

deemy2004

LOL

You could always emigrate to Thames Town Thats were the keyboards are made... !

GingeG

Oh Dear I really must start to read what I type.

The keyboard is fine its the muppet pushing the buttons thats not.