House price discussion

GreenB_2

According to the Latest figures from Nationwide the average house has risen in price since June last year.

Here are the price rises for the last year

North 8.3%
Yorks & Humberside 8.3%
North West 9.2%
East Midlands 4.3%
West Midlands 6.1%
East Anglia 4.1%
Outer South East 2.5%
Outer Metropolitan 3.3%
London 3.5%
South West 4.9%
Wales 7.4%
Scotland 10.5%
N Ireland 24.8%

A rise is a rise!

meanmachine_2

From the Nationwide:

UK house prices dipped by 0.2% in June, the Nationwide says, with the annual growth rate falling to its lowest level since July 1996.

FTBers rejoice! The greedy lenders and agents are on the run!

**Boardguide note: Post edited - all opinions are valid**

Pheno

meanmachine wrote:

From the Nationwide:

UK house prices dipped by 0.2% in June, the Nationwide says, with the annual growth rate falling to its lowest level since July 1996.

Please don't believe Estate Agent bulls*t from the trolls on here.

FTBers rejoice! The greedy lenders and agents are on the run!

To clarify a bit - that figure is seasonally adjusted. Here's the full report:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/CMQPRQ205.pdf

dccarm

I'm confused now. Didn't you tell us on another thread that prices had fallen month on month for the past thirteen months. Now you're quoting figures that say they've actually risen by 4% (more than inflation) in the past year?

John_M_Business

meanmachine wrote:

Please don't believe Estate Agent bulls*t from the trolls on here.

Yes. Please don't... er... misrepresent figures. Not that it takes anything to start a thread like this.

John_M_Business

GreenB wrote:

According to the Latest figures from Nationwide the average house has risen in price since June last year.

Here are the price rises for the last year

North 8.3%
Yorks & Humberside 8.3%
North West 9.2%
East Midlands 4.3%
West Midlands 6.1%
East Anglia 4.1%
Outer South East 2.5%
Outer Metropolitan 3.3%
London 3.5%
South West 4.9%
Wales 7.4%
Scotland 10.5%
N Ireland 24.8%

A rise is a rise!

So, could ***someone*** please explain how you can mathematically justify these figures with 'month on month falls for the last thirteen months'.

I don't think so.

Pheno

John_M_Business wrote:

So, could ***someone*** please explain how you can mathematically justify these figures with 'month on month falls for the last thirteen months'.

I don't think so.

Different index. Hometrack reported a negative YoY HPI

bridiej

I'm starting this off as the old discussion is up to 30 pages and could be slow to load for those on dial up.

I've started the ball rolling by merging a couple of other threads into this one.

Enjoy

meanmachine_2

John_M_Business wrote:

So, could ***someone*** please explain how you can mathematically justify these figures with 'month on month falls for the last thirteen months'.

I don't think so.

It's a deliberately confusing picture, designed to give the impression that house prices are in fact going nowhere.

The Hometrack stats are ahead of the game by posting consistent falls - now 13 on the run.

Nationwide's stats are only just starting to factor in these falls.

Basically there are around 8 different indices. They won't all be negative until around Autumn time.

I agree that it's pretty pointless to flit from one index to the next as they all use different data. Rightmove for example measures "asking prices" which is something entirely different to anything else. Really the best index is land registry which looks at prixes per quarter, based on actual sales prices.

However, it suits the industry - including EAs like Green B - because it helps to fog the wider picture.

Pheno

meanmachine wrote:

The Hometrack stats are ahead of the game by posting consistent falls - now 13 on the run.

Hometrack's figures are different mainly because they only cover england and wales.

meanmachine_2

Pheno wrote:

Hometrack's figures are different mainly because they only cover england and wales.

Yes good point. And if you take Northern Ireland's breathtaking 25% (!!!!!) annual rise out of the equation, the picture looks very bleak for the rest of the country.

Maybe posters on here can explain why on god's earth NI has become a property hotspot. I mean, from our vantage point it does seem bizarre, and a mass form of insania (to quite Mr Katie Price).

I'm sure parts of NI are beautiful and very deseriable, but what is the economic driver behind all of this? Has the population of NI gone up by a quarter in the last year?

Crazy.