Triple lock increase for April 2027 is 3.9% (probably)

SarahB16

Veloflyer (Edit: Originally I had quoted the comment from Zagfles but my mistake it was from Veloflyer) said: Triple lock and much else is simply down to whether the ruling party think there is/will be more or less votes for them. 

Not exactly, in his speech on Tuesday AB recognises he may very well pay the price for introducing the amendment to the triple lock. He introduced the amendment as a means to help fund the new National Care Service. He said unless social care is supported then our National Health Service will fail.

At any one time there are c.13,000 people well enough to leave hospital but they can't as they lack the support at home that they require. Ambulances cannot drop off patients as the corridors are full due to the lack of available beds on the wards. When ambulances cannot drop off patients they then cannot go to emergency calls so you can see the knock-on effect this has.

As always, we vote for what we believe in (and not necessarily what is best for oneself because we think of people less fortunate than ourselves). The introduction of the National Care Service is to provide social care but to also ease the pressure on the National Health Service. In addition, the provision of social care will be free when required. Many pensioners may need to pay thousands to pay for the care they require but instead it would be free at the point of use but it does require funding.

Nobody, for decades, has wished to address the social care problem we have, due to not knowing how to fund it.

To note: I have deliberately avoided being political (and am happy to edit my post if it is viewed as being political) and will not share my opinion but I am simply relaying what I heard in AB's speech on Tuesday afternoon.

zagfles

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82158191#Comment_82158191

They presumably will specify it, eg as Martin said a guarantee that the state pension will be 30% of average earnings (or whatever the current % is at the change date).

zagfles

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82158245#Comment_82158245

The problem is whatever the method of funding they use will provide the opposition and media with a golden opportunity to make political capital out of it. Remember Theresa May's solution in 2017, quite a sensible, progressive solution, when she was 20% ahead in the polls and decided to call an election with that in the manifesto.

It was dubbed the "dementia tax" by the media and opposition, with fake news and scare stories like people being forced to sell their homes while still alive to pay it, and she ended up plummeting in the polls and losing her majority. Probably mainly due to that policy.

Andy_L

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82158142#Comment_82158142

The Turner pensions review that preceded the introduction of the triple lock by a few years as well as saying
Raise pension age
Go back to wage indexation
Create NEST

also said that the goal should be that the combination of SP and NEST should be about 50% of average income.

So about £19k in today's money

Albermarle

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82158935#Comment_82158935

In other past threads about income in retirement, there was a (sort of ) consensus that a single person needed at least the full SP + £5k a year as a minimum, to have some sort of decent life in retirement ( assuming no mortgage or rental costs) .

mrklaw

@Andy_L interesting

had a quick compound interest calculator using median earnings an autoenrol minimums and that’d be around 12-14k a year but not everyone will be on median earnings from the start etc

SnowMan

The new state pension (headline figure) should increase by 3.9% from the current £241.30 per week to £250.70 per week in April 2027 (a £9.40 per week increase). Earnings data out today has solidified the precise percentage of this anticipated increase.

To recap, the earnings percentage used for the earnings element of the triple lock calculation has been established through custom to be the July seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses figure, and that figure was provisionally published on 15th September at 3.9%. The July 2026 figure is the average of the year on year increase in earnings for the 3 months of May, June and July. This July earnings figure can be subject to a small revision when further earnings data is published in subsequent months.

The October earnings data has been published today (20th October) and the provisional July 2026 earnings figure has not been revised and remains at 3.9%. As the triple lock increase is usually announced in the budget (28th October this year) this is the last potential revision of the July 2026 earnings figure before then. By custom if there is any further post budget revision to the July earnings figure, for example in November, this is ignored for the purposes of the triple lock increase.

The relevant CPI for September is published tomorrow and is expected to be around 3.4% to 3.5% but will certainly be less than 3.9%*.

Hence the triple lock increase, which is based on the highest of the average earnings increase, CPI price inflation and 2.5%, should be based on this 3.9% earnings figure.

We await the budget for final confirmation.

(* Edit: CPI for September has now been released and is 3.5%)

harz99

@SnowMan and the majority of state pensioners will receive less than £9.40 if this comes about.

QrizB

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82174949#Comment_82174949

And some of them will receive much more than £9.40.

Edit: we had this discussion in this very thread a month ago.

Silvertabby

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82174949#Comment_82174949

Indeed. You may mean those who reached SPA under the old rules, but only about 50% of pensioners who reached SPA after April 2016 receive the full new single tier pension.