Doom scrolling and the next financial crash!

Bostonerimus1

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82109806#Comment_82109806

Ah, my comment shows the danger of only reading the last part of a conversation.

Bostonerimus1

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82109812#Comment_82109812

I think today's pull back was largely connected to the recent rise in US long term bond rates. There are some worrying signs in the US economy, but it will take some company failures for the real crash to emerge and that might be some time from now.

masonic

I'm perplexed as to why discussion has moved to over-analysing a sub-1% intra-day drop that left the index higher than it was for most of the last quarter.

aroominyork

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82109896#Comment_82109896

LL_USS might have hacked into Geoff's account.

GeoffTF

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82109896#Comment_82109896

VWRP is down 3% from its peak, but that may mean nothing. I am sitting on my hands. I do not know what will trigger the next crash, or which companies will be the biggest casualties.

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82109937#Comment_82109937

I was thinking we just need Type_45 to come back and confidently tell us this means the global index will be 80% lower by the end of the year!

DT2001

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82108642#Comment_82108642

May I ask what your aim is for your portfolio? Having read quite a few of your very sensible posts over the years I know that your expenditure is covered by other sources of income. We are fortunate in having guaranteed income plus income focused investment trusts which will cover our needs. The balance of our funds are in global ETFs as it fits in with our heirs requirements (as we see them!).

We are aiming to unravel a few property deals and then recalculate our requirements to ‘release’ excess funds sooner rather than later.

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82111509#Comment_82111509

I'm not sure if we've gradually worn Boston down over the years 😉, but for an inter-generational investment where the heirs are comfortable with the risks of the market, you are doing the right thing. A few of us have intended horizons shorter than that and are addressing potential tail-risks, but over a long enough holding period, these tilts, which are fairly modest in any case, will not make a significant difference.

Cus

I thought that you either believe that one should not try to time the market as how can one know better than the overall market, and that one should use market cap based index funds for the right risk profile regardless of current value. If your risk level is 80% equity for example, then make sure you rebalance when required. People have been saying the market will crash for 10 years. If there is a crash, when do you go back in? What is the right time? Emotions

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82111629#Comment_82111629

That is the challenge. The longer your time horizon, the less you need to worry about returns over the next decade or whatever. As you are one who exited the market a while ago, I'm keen for an update about your plans. I am one who derisked a while ago and I have done nothing since. I don't expect to increase my risk level unless and until a rebalancing need arises. But if I do need to rebalance, the likelihood is I will "over-rebalance".