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Doom scrolling and the next financial crash!
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The tool you chose does not appear to suitable for solving your problem. When in a hole stop digging. That says nothing about whether that tool will solve other problems, or whether another tool will solve your problem. The skill is matching the tool to the problem.
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Both can be true, gross doesn't include fixed costs, including the significant infrastructure costs.
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I'd approach anything written about AI by a GitHub software engineer with a critical eye. LLMs might be profitable in some circumstances, but those circumstances must include the capital costs of the debt, ongoing maintenance of the data centers as GPUs and cooling systems age and the usual salaries and overhead. The article does mention amortizing the GPU cost over 5 years, but I don't really follow the logic and many costs are ignored. The amount of use and the amount people will pay are critical and that's where the open source models are dangerous for the companies like OpenAI. But probably the most important factor is the speed of the uptake as profits need to be made pretty soon to pay off contracts…that's not revenue, but profit. Although I can imagine terms being renegotiated in a desperate attempt to forestall consequences. The announcement from OpenAI that we have AGI (whatever that is) and the large number of ads I see from OpenAI and Anthropic combined with several high level AI executive resignation make me believe that things are not very stable right now.
And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.2 -
Similarities to my approach though I have less equity and a chunk of actively managed corporate bonds. Monevator's missive today updates on its No Cat Food retirement portfolio and uses small cap value, AVSG, for 'low tech exposure'. I also hold AVSG but at about 10% of my equities so just under 5% of my portfolio; I don't have this guy's tilt stomach.
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I absolutely would not hold that allocation to SCV.
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We could share a plate of chicken livers.
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I have very little small cap. In my rebalancing I just moved a large percentage of my US Equity Index (VTSMX, 40% tech) over to US Value Index (VVIAX, 10% tech).
And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.0 -
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It's not a matter of being convinced, I just don't care.
And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.0 -
Fair point, if you are not interested in small caps and just want to diversify/de-tech your large caps.
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