Doom scrolling and the next financial crash!

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82127676#Comment_82127676

Quoting this over here on Savings & Investments because it is about the AI bubble and whether your experience is evidence that AI is over-hyped, and the valuations associated with it are unrealistic.

Using a technical edge-case as evidence that the AI sector is in a bubble does not make any sense. The commercial value driving valuations right now comes from automating large-scale workflows, processing huge amounts of data, writing standard code, and streamlining operations across industries. Pointing to a consumer AI search failing to solve a hyper-specific, obscure utility task doesn't prove the technology lacks economic value, any more than a Swiss Army knife failing to act as a sledgehammer proves multi-tools are useless.

What makes the argument even weaker is that conventional search engines, technical forums, and existing software utilities haven't handed over a quick, off-the-shelf solution to your problem either. When a problem is genuinely niche or fundamentally constrained by how a system works, neither a standard Google search, an AI summary, nor human forum members are going to deliver an easy answer. You have your thread in the techie stuff forum now, so maybe someone will have some expert knowledge and make a suggestion.

I am actually in the camp that believes AI company valuations are currently stretched, overly speculative, and due for a market correction. However, basing a macro-economic bear case on "it couldn't solve my specific tech issue" does the position a real disservice. There are plenty of solid financial, ROI, and capital expenditure arguments for why AI stock prices may be inflated, but this just isn't one of them.

aroominyork

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82127462#Comment_82127462

My hunch is that the older among us - especially those with maybe enough to retire on - are less keen to ride the USA/AI wave and are de-risking. If I were 30 years younger and still accumulating, I might stick with the index and let events take their course. Running a poll on age bracket and USA% might be interesting.

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82127765#Comment_82127765

Guilty as charged! Someone with relatively little of their lifetime capital invested already will be presented with a great buying opportunity sooner or later. Just as I was in the late 2000s. It would have made very little difference whether I had been able to skilfully avoid the financials during that crash. In fact, I'm sure one of our favourite youtube commentators recently did that analysis of investing at the top vs bottom of a long investment horizon to show this point.

We would probably see a different narrative dominating on a forum frequented by more younger folk.

talexuser

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82127718#Comment_82127718

Again you persist in straw man arguments. I gave one example on my stated feeling that in my experience many AI answers are simply wrong, and the technology seems not to live up to the hype, and that reinforces my opinions on ridiculous overvaluations and effects on index funds and the inevitable correction. To portray my post as that single example made me think thus is just wrong and misleading. Whether a solution was found or not does not change the fact that answers given did not reflect the criteria specified in the question and were useless and a waste of tme, if in fact the answer was something that will do that cannot be found yet.

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82127836#Comment_82127836

You accuse me of a straw man, but I responded directly to what you actually posted. That single technical example was the only piece of evidence you offered to substantiate your view on AI valuations. If you have substantive, macroeconomic reasons for believing the market is in a bubble, you didn’t share them. Instead your anecdote was all you offered. Me pointing out that your only evidence doesn't support your conclusion isn't a straw man, it's basic logic. If you want to argue that AI valuations are in a bubble, make those actual arguments.

Meanwhile, over in the techie stuff thread I created for you, other forumites seem to be successfully using AI tools to help you solve your problem. It suggests the issue might not lie with the technology.

For all its flaws, one distinct benefit of an AI is that it is infinitely agreeable and will put up with endless goading when it doesn't give you the answer you want. Human forums tend to be less forgiving.

Dead_keen

I gave one example on my stated feeling that in my experience many AI answers are simply wrong

I guess it matters what you mean by an AI answer. If you mean using a free LLM that is not state of the art, knows nothing about you or your system and just gives an answer without testing it then you are probably right.

Try it with agentic AI using a state of the art model that knows you and it will spend time understanding your system, researching the issue and trying different ways to achieve your goal. The closed loop nature of agentic AI is a very different thing to asking Gemini or whatever.

There is a market for free search / chat LLMs. Some people even people pay £20 per month for them. If that was the end of the story then the AI boom is completely bust. But equally my next door neighbour sent me a WhatsApp a few days ago saying:

Just found out I spent $7500 on Claude Code this month hahah

One person, one month. Will they spend the same next month? No idea. But there will be lots of people out there who will have a business case to do that. At the moment relatively few companies spend significant amounts on AI. One of the bets is that many more companies will spend a lot.

Will they? No idea and that, as per my earlier post, means that the commitment to buy compute in 2028 without having customers known to want to buy the tokens in 2028 means that we might be just before the financial crash. Or we might not be.

talexuser

"That single technical example was the only piece of evidence you offered to substantiate your view on AI valuations."

So I can't expess an opinion I've posted in previous posts about index skewing and overvaluations and not believing the AI hype without documenting all the examples which formed that opinion just for your benefit.

I tried the AI script on the other forum, it did not work.

GeoffTF

You can express an opinion if you wish, but do not expect anyone to be impressed unless you have credible evidence. I have said that I do not know, but I do not expect that has impressed anyone either.

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82129032#Comment_82129032

If you present a single anecdote to justify a claim on a forum, don't be surprised to get a response focusing on what you actually posted.

Increasing the number of examples that are irrelevant to the index composition and company valuations will not strengthen your argument about those things.

If you want to discuss index concentration and macro valuations, discuss those. Nobody is stopping you.

"I tried the AI script on the other forum, it did not work."

It is beginning to look like neither human nor AI can help you with this issue. I think both have underestimated the challenge of tool use when placed in unfamiliar hands.

talexuser

AI has so far given me 3 programs that don't work, 2 do not even run in windows, the other does not fulfill the basic criteria, 2 powershell scripts that don't work and 2 command line sequences that don't work. I found by conventional searching a free program that does work, albeit with a bug that is not unsurmountable. I frankly think it is beneath you to suggest that it is somehow my fault.