Flying to South America in October - buy now or later?

Thomas_Holding

I am flying to South America in October and the flights have recently increased in price.
(I didn't buy because I had to wait for something).
However I think it might come down again - what do people think?

eskbanker

Why do you think prices might come down again?  Which specific airline(s), route(s), etc, are you monitoring?

Thomas_Holding

eskbanker said:

Why do you think prices might come down again?  Which specific airline(s), route(s), etc, are you monitoring?

Because last year I bought a flight in January for July for South America coming back August. 
In May they changed the schedule and we complained so they gave us a refund, we bought another flight for the same dates and same outward time.
(Different time coming back because the original no longer existed) and we saved £300 on the original price.

So booking closer to the date was a good move.
So prices seem to go up and down.

eskbanker

Thomas_Holding said:

eskbanker said:

Why do you think prices might come down again?  Which specific airline(s), route(s), etc, are you monitoring?

Because last year I bought a flight in January for July for South America coming back August. 
In May they changed the schedule and we complained so they gave us a refund, we bought another flight for the same dates and same outward time.
(Different time coming back because the original no longer existed) and we saved £300 on the original price.

So booking closer to the date was a good move.
So prices seem to go up and down.

I don't think it's safe to assume that price fluctuations in one year will be mirrored next time round - if pricing changes followed a predictable and repeatable pattern then everyone would wait to buy when they're at the lowest point, but of course dynamic pricing reflects a whole range of factors, some of which, e.g. demand, will naturally vary between years.

Thomas_Holding

eskbanker said:

Thomas_Holding said:

eskbanker said:

Why do you think prices might come down again?  Which specific airline(s), route(s), etc, are you monitoring?

Because last year I bought a flight in January for July for South America coming back August. 
In May they changed the schedule and we complained so they gave us a refund, we bought another flight for the same dates and same outward time.
(Different time coming back because the original no longer existed) and we saved £300 on the original price.

So booking closer to the date was a good move.
So prices seem to go up and down.

I don't think it's safe to assume that price fluctuations in one year will be mirrored next time round - if pricing changes followed a predictable and repeatable pattern then everyone would wait to buy when they're at the lowest point, but of course dynamic pricing reflects a whole range of factors, some of which, e.g. demand, will naturally vary between years.

I think you are right - one year I decided to look at how prices rose/fell depending on when they were booked and it seemed a bit random. Very close they are high but for from 12 months to about IIRC 3 months before they are a bit random.

MyRealNameToo

Thomas_Holding said:

eskbanker said:

Thomas_Holding said:

eskbanker said:

Why do you think prices might come down again?  Which specific airline(s), route(s), etc, are you monitoring?

Because last year I bought a flight in January for July for South America coming back August. 
In May they changed the schedule and we complained so they gave us a refund, we bought another flight for the same dates and same outward time.
(Different time coming back because the original no longer existed) and we saved £300 on the original price.

So booking closer to the date was a good move.
So prices seem to go up and down.

I don't think it's safe to assume that price fluctuations in one year will be mirrored next time round - if pricing changes followed a predictable and repeatable pattern then everyone would wait to buy when they're at the lowest point, but of course dynamic pricing reflects a whole range of factors, some of which, e.g. demand, will naturally vary between years.

I think you are right - one year I decided to look at how prices rose/fell depending on when they were booked and it seemed a bit random. Very close they are high but for from 12 months to about IIRC 3 months before they are a bit random.

Prices are ultimately determined by supply and demand. Undoubtedly they have "development patterns" which they can use to predict how it will end up so even if the plane is half empty if they are selling at twice the normal rate the price will go up. If that slows sales to below the normal level then prices will cut again. Likewise they'll watch for events that cause disruption from the normal pattern be it Oasis announcing a gig in Sucre or Trump bombing Bogota, both would cause a sudden change if you were planning to go to either place. 

The very last second is often expensive because that tends to be people who dont have a choice be that family going to a funeral or business people travelling with work so will pay whatever needs to be paid 

Ballard

I’ve booked flights to and from Costa Rica for next Nov/Dec with BA as they currently have a sale. Prior to the sale the were c£1,500 but I paid half of that. It was a bit cheaper with both Air Canada  and Avianca, but the direct option with BA won. I’d suggest that you have a look at BA now as they might cover the country you’re heading towards. 

I flew Lufthansa to Bogotá in 2019 when they had economy for £900 or business for £1,500. Sadly, I think that the days of cheap business are mostly behind us.

Thomas_Holding

Ballard said:

I’ve booked flights to and from Costa Rica for next Nov/Dec with BA as they currently have a sale. Prior to the sale the were c£1,500 but I paid half of that. It was a bit cheaper with both Air Canada  and Avianca, but the direct option with BA won. I’d suggest that you have a look at BA now as they might cover the country you’re heading towards. 

I flew Lufthansa to Bogotá in 2019 when they had economy for £900 or business for £1,500. Sadly, I think that the days of cheap business are mostly behind us.

I will try them - sadly their website is down - also I can't buy just yet (long and boring story).

Thomas_Holding

MyRealNameToo said:

Thomas_Holding said:

eskbanker said:

Thomas_Holding said:

eskbanker said:

Why do you think prices might come down again?  Which specific airline(s), route(s), etc, are you monitoring?

Because last year I bought a flight in January for July for South America coming back August. 
In May they changed the schedule and we complained so they gave us a refund, we bought another flight for the same dates and same outward time.
(Different time coming back because the original no longer existed) and we saved £300 on the original price.

So booking closer to the date was a good move.
So prices seem to go up and down.

I don't think it's safe to assume that price fluctuations in one year will be mirrored next time round - if pricing changes followed a predictable and repeatable pattern then everyone would wait to buy when they're at the lowest point, but of course dynamic pricing reflects a whole range of factors, some of which, e.g. demand, will naturally vary between years.

I think you are right - one year I decided to look at how prices rose/fell depending on when they were booked and it seemed a bit random. Very close they are high but for from 12 months to about IIRC 3 months before they are a bit random.

Prices are ultimately determined by supply and demand. Undoubtedly they have "development patterns" which they can use to predict how it will end up so even if the plane is half empty if they are selling at twice the normal rate the price will go up. If that slows sales to below the normal level then prices will cut again. Likewise they'll watch for events that cause disruption from the normal pattern be it Oasis announcing a gig in Sucre or Trump bombing Bogota, both would cause a sudden change if you were planning to go to either place. 

The very last second is often expensive because that tends to be people who dont have a choice be that family going to a funeral or business people travelling with work so will pay whatever needs to be paid 

True - AFAIK there were no events that changed the desirability last year (unless it was the schedule change) . - which made the price drop so much.