with all the coverage of impending market crashes, what are you doing?

Alexland

SB1980 said:

I am half tempted to sell some funds i'm pretty much 100% global equities in ISA LISA and Pension, 45yo M. My thoughts are that thing every is advised to avoid, timing the markets, sell now (high) hold in cash until the upcoming (therein lies the risk, i know) fall and then buy back in low.

My view is inflation linked gilts are currently looking attractive. Global equities are looking overvalued which is likely to affect returns in the short to medium term but most likely will still be fine over the long term.

In my pensions I am currently holding around 2/3rd equities and 1/3rd IL gilts down from the 100% equities when bonds were overvalued a few years ago. I could meet my early retirement objectives with just IL gilts now so I am left wondering what's the point continuing to take the equities risk but I guess it's diversification and there's always the possibility of a better long term return.

thunderroad88

The media just love scare stories…not saying it won’t happen but it was doom, gloom and crash in April with the Trump slump…glad I held then and I’ll hold now as I don’t need the funds for 7 years if at all

jimexbox

The circular lending which is creating that AI bubble will probably chug along into 2026. The private credit or shadow banking is what will most likely bring the whole pack of card's down sooner. It looks extremely precarious. 

GeoffTF

Here is PensionCraft's advice:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ipFwEOviiE

Pretty much what I am doing. Stay diversified.

Ivkoto

What, if you miss 50% growth, before the "expected crash" come? How would you feel then?

clairec666

If you are questioning whether to respond to rumours of market crashes, then you need to question whether your money is in the right place irrespective of whether a crash happens.

If, for example, you have been working hard to save for a house deposit, and intend to buy in the next couple of years, then you would be devastated if the value of your savings plummeted. But should that money have been in S&S in the first place, as the value was likely to fluctuate over that timescale anyway?

If your investments are longer-term, say 20 years plus, then presumably you are already prepared to ride out some peaks and troughs over the years. There may or may not be a big trough coming, but you may still make long-term gains. Or not. That's the risk you were prepared to take when you originally invested.

jaypers

If they crash, buy more if you can. Generally things always recover and the worst thing you can do is to sell in a falling market unless you need the cash. And if they don’t recover, it’s because there are bigger things to worry about than the stock market. 

OldScientist

SB1980 said:

Sorry if this has been covered in other posts.

As the title says really... all i see these days are reports that the AI bubble will crash, a market correction is coming etc etc i know that no one really knows, but is anyone doing anything in advance?

I am half tempted to sell some funds i'm pretty much 100% global equities in ISA LISA and Pension, 45yo M. My thoughts are that thing every is advised to avoid, timing the markets, sell now (high) hold in cash until the upcoming (therein lies the risk, i know) fall and then buy back in low.

I am not sure i am brave enough to actually do it, but is/has/will anyone attempt this?

Market timing requires making two decisions

1) When to get out
2) When to get in

These times are very easy to spot after the event, e.g., the small 'dip' at the beginning of this year looked like this (using a global index fund), but harder at the time.



In 2025, getting out at the peak of the market (mid-Feb 2025) and getting back in at the bottom (early April) would have been great (although having bought back in at bottom, the second, short lived, dip might have caused some trepidation). But, at the time, nothing would have particularly identified either of those times since the same 'news' has been around (tariffs, Ukraine, AI, 'bubbles', etc.) for a while. Certainly, in the middle of the dip, there was no reason to believe that markets would not fall further or that they would recover so strongly as they eventually have (so far).

After every dip there are people online saying how well they did because they timed it right, but not many people own up to getting it wrong (since every trade has a buyer and a seller, they must exist). I also note that anyone contributing to their pension on a monthly basis would have 'bought the dip' without even having to think about it.

Assuming all your investments are for retirement and you are this nervous, then, as others have said, gradually dropping from 100% equities might be a good plan.

If your investments also include money that you might spend soon, do you have a cash buffer (perhaps 6 months expenditure) to see you through a) market fluctuations, and b) other unforeseen circumstances (e.g., unemployment)?

noclaf

I am approaching my mid-40's,  pension, LISA and SIPP remain 100% Equities and in the work pension am spread between fairly standard global equity trackers and more concentrated bets on US/Tech but comfortable on the basis am contributing monthly so drops are a good thing longer term.

S&SISA is where I have been slightly more concerned about potential drops....last few years I topped-up the allowance annually once per year so much harder to take advantage of market drops.. admittedly I am trying to have my cake and eat it which isn't happening (market timing useless IMO) so last year I adjusted from 100% Equities to a roughly 75/20/5 (Equities/Agg bonds and Gilts/Gold) and it's been interesting to see how it dampened the peaks and troughs Vs my 100% Equities accounts...fairly happy so far.  I also moved away from a market cap 100% Equities tracker to a Ex-US + US +EM mainly to reduce US exposure...part of me questions whether all that faff is worth it as would expect a drop impacting US Equities could hit rest of the market anyway.

As a final point, we all have different targets based on future needs(income).....my total pensions (DC/SIPP) are currently around £260k......so for my anticipated needs in the future am far from where I want to be come retirement. .. haven't won the game yet but if my pensions were double the current value would have a different view and consider whether 100% Equities is really needed i.e: an 60/40 or 80/20 split for example might suffice to give me 'sufficient' growth rather than aiming to smash the lights out.
Just my 2p and thoughts (ramblings), guess we will see how it all plays out.

Alexland

noclaf said:

I am approaching my mid-40's,  pension, LISA and SIPP remain 100% Equities and in the work pension am spread between fairly standard global equity trackers and more concentrated bets on US/Tech but comfortable on the basis am contributing monthly so drops are a good thing longer term.

I have noticed that my ongoing contributions now seem immaterial in comparison to accumulated account valuations so it's going to be less reassuring to think 'well at least my contributions and dividends are buying more units' during a crash. But then when it does next crash I guess the account valuations will be lower so the contributions will seem more material.

When markets seem high then I like to take comfort in being diversified, but still sniffing on valuation, so I have some levers to pull if opportunities present themselves. Sure this might not generate as much return as if I had a crystal ball to say which asset class was going to do best over the next period but I accept my limits.

It's nice to have to have several good things to invest in right now - the TINA period was rather uncomfortable feeling compelled to hold 100% equities because the lower risk stuff was even higher risk. Now yields are positive and attractive again holding IL gilts is giving me great comfort - it feels like I am starting to lock in a good retirement income.