Ooh buyers are coming back

PasturesNew

GracieP wrote: »

I think what is happening now is what is called the Dead Cat Bounce, or Bull-Trap. Where the boom is over, ther bust has started but due to measures such IR cuts and a certain deal of belief in some sections of the public that there are bargains to be had following the "slow-down" there is a brief upswing in the market again. It happens in nearly every boom-bust cycle.

Yes. I have been thinking this, but didn't want to be the first to mention is for fear of introducing a new concept to people as new ideas/information seem to produce the most violent responses. I believe this is a short-lived bull-trap - and the real bull-trap will come in 2/3/4 years' time. I think this bull-trap will last 1-2 months MAX, with the one near the bottom of the market lasting 4-6 months.

PasturesNew

Nenen wrote: »

We are currently STR (not intentionally for potential HPC but other circumstances) and I constantly teeter on the brink of buying or waiting... my dh is keen to wait and keeps citing arguements in favour of a HPC but I constantly worry this will be the wrong thing to do.

Me too. But I am determined to sit it out. I have no job anyway, so can't even be sure I will be staying here, so on that basis alone it would be crazy to buy a house (even in a rising market it would be) as I might randomly find employment miles away at the drop of a hat.

I am watching the block where I rent as some kind of indicator. The location is a very popular rent block, with a mix of owners who bought 6+ years ago and BTL landlords.

One went on the market yesterday - owner/occupier that have been there 7 years. It is at a 2.8% higher asking price than the last one that sold 2 months ago.... and I thought at the time the last one would never sell at that price.

Fergie73

Another thing high house prices has given us is: a huge benefits bill.

All those private rented accommodations, landlords pocketing the cash of the taxpayer.

This is one thing that really annoys me about the lack of social housing and sell off of council places. My council is currently renting several ex-council places back from private landlords at about five times the price a council tenant pays for renting in the same area in order to mitigate the affordable housing crisis!

All those who think house prices being high and everyone being forced to rent privately is a great thing because they can make money out of it should think about the fact that anytime someone needs housing benefit, they're paying the price for that too. And if there's a downturn (as there's almost certain to be) that's going to be a hell of a lot of money.

GracieP

PasturesNew wrote: »

Yes. I have been thinking this, but didn't want to be the first to mention is for fear of introducing a new concept to people as new ideas/information seem to produce the most violent responses. I believe this is a short-lived bull-trap - and the real bull-trap will come in 2/3/4 years' time. I think this bull-trap will last 1-2 months MAX, with the one near the bottom of the market lasting 4-6 months.

Well I'm about to put my house on the market so my opinion may be tempered with wishful thinking.;) But as 1 of my neighbours went sale agreed in October I think what happens to me will be a good indication of the market.

PasturesNew

A side note, the law on housing benefit is actually changing on 1 April.

From that date, each area will have a list of what rent is acceptable compared to house size. Each claim then has a maximum value set and no matter how much rent you are paying, you won't get benefit higher than what the council list says is a fair rent.

e.g.
Single person, living the life of riley renting a 2-bed waterside apartment at £750/month becomes unemployed. Council looks up how much the local rents are and how many people are in the claim - they then decide that in that area a 1-bed containing a single person is a max of £550. So that is the max benefit claim given. So the single person would need to find the other £200/month from their £250/month JSA.

This will only apply to new claims.

It will reduce, somewhat, the rents that landlords might be able to get in some instances. Those who previously would have rented a bigger place than they needed knowing if they got laid off housing benefit would pay their rent, now face a different scenario as they'd have to stump up the difference, this might make them pick somewhere a bit smaller/cheaper if not now, then as soon as they are out of work (if they can find somewhere to move to in their reduced circumstances). I know I would.

Obviously this doesn't affect those IN work... but you never know when you'll go in and be told 'sorry'.

Fergie73

A side note, the law on housing benefit is actually changing on 1 April.

From that date, each area will have a list of what rent is acceptable compared to house size. Each claim then has a maximum value set and no matter how much rent you are paying, you won't get benefit higher than what the council list says is a fair rent.

That's a good thing. While I reckon everyone should be decently housed, I really don't see why someone on benefits should be able to live in a better place than someone working and paying the rent themselves can afford to live in! With any luck, it might help keep rents at a decent level too :j

motch

Basically 2 months + ago you could of covered your house all over in dog sh*te and still of sold it at or near asking price, where as now it would need to be honey.

PasturesNew

Fergie73 wrote: »

That's a good thing. While I reckon everyone should be decently housed, I really don't see why someone on benefits should be able to live in a better place than someone working and paying the rent themselves can afford to live in! With any luck, it might help keep rents at a decent level too :j

Not many people think of the future. The 'what ifs'. They will therefore be enraged when this hits them. For my situation, I am single and I think realistically in my area a fair rent for me would turn out to be about £450/month for a 1-bed place. However, I don't sign on when I am not working. What I do instead is keep an eye on how much benefits I COULD get and then I find some way to earn that much at least. For this model of independent living I specifically selected something smaller/cheaper. So I am in a studio flatlet. Most people tend to gravitate towards the largest property they can afford, not the smallest they are able/prepared to live in.

It will certainly make a sub-set of people to reassess their needs -v- their wants. For those permanently on benefits and there already, they just have to sit tight. For those who are assured of continual employment who are private renting it won't enter onto their radar of considerations. It's those in/out of work, those laid off, that this will affect.

Also - for families, it can be very surprising just how spacious housing benefit currently sees their needs as being: http://www.therentservice.gov.uk/online-services/room-calculator.asp

e.g. a couple with a 16 year old, a 17 year old and 14 year old would be able to have 6 rooms. That might be: 4 bedrooms and 2 reception rooms. Which would give everybody their own bedroom. While back in the land of those who pay for accommodation, two of those would usually be sharing.

With a prediction for 2008 of a lot of job losses, this new legislation, from the Govt's perspective, will have been introduced just in time!

Zammo

Just had an EA call me wanting to know if I was still interested in buying somewhere. I actually pulled out of buying a house with this particular agent a few months ago. Now that's what I call desperation.

Nenen

PasturesNew wrote: »

Not
Also - for families, it can be very surprising just how spacious housing benefit currently sees their needs as being: http://www.therentservice.gov.uk/online-services/room-calculator.asp

e.g. a couple with a 16 year old, a 17 year old and 14 year old would be able to have 6 rooms. That might be: 4 bedrooms and 2 reception rooms. Which would give everybody their own bedroom. While back in the land of those who pay for accommodation, two of those would usually be sharing.

Oooohhh don't start me off on that one! I am absolutely comitted to living in a society which supports people who, through no fault of their own, have fallen on hard times. However I get soooooooooo cross :mad: that although my dh and I would have dearly loved 4 children (and would have loved and educated them all to become productive members of society) we had to stop at 3 as we just couldn't afford all the extra costs a 4th would entail, including a bigger house! Our 2 boys have always had to share a bedroom and our dd has a tiny boxroom. The house we are currently renting (and paying for ourselves) has a total of 5 smallish rooms plus kitchen and bathroom. I've witnessed a family on benefits living in a council house getting the council to knock two houses together for them in order to house their 7 children! I get so fed up of seeing people who are happy to claim benefits enjoying a far more affluent lifestyle than I can.... being paid for out of my taxes!

Phew... glad to get that off my chest... apologies for the rant!