Ooh buyers are coming back

PasturesNew

Watch BBC2 immediately - they are covering some of this stuff.
The economy of 2008

carolt

I'm sure there ARE more buyers overall now than there were a few weeks ago - that's because it was just before Christmas, always traditionally the quietest time in the market. Once Christmas is out of the way, people who want to move start looking again.

But that does not change the facts that:
- in the most recent figures, transaction volumes were down 40% on a year ago
- these people haven't yet made offers and may yet make rather lower offers than they would have done a few months ago if at all
- even if these people do make higher offers,or indeed any offers, they may not be able to fulfil them, as the credit crunch means they may not find it easy to get a(n affordable) mortgage.

So, whilst you may be right, I wouldn't count your chickens before they're hatched, let alone brag about them.

And to match one anecdote that proves nothing with another, I was sent an email yesterday about a property 'back on the market' yesterday. It was a really deeply unattractive 3 bed house in the worst road in the next village. It was truly horrible, and when it came on for 285K at the peak of the market (about 35K more than previous asking prices for that road), I was reluctant to go and see it, even though we'd only recently been let down on a house we were hoping to buy and there was almost nothing of an equivalent price on the market. EA told me 'it would go immediately, loads of buyers desperate to buy it etc'. I ignored it. Well, it stayed unsold for about 6 months and then reduced to 275K. It then went under offer, finally just before Christmas, at (I suspect), a very reduced price (the EA had told me repeatedly how open to offers they were). But it has now fallen through.

Appreciate my local anecdote is just that - no more. And lengthy, dull, and tedious too. But to me it is a better reflection of the current state of the UK housing market than the one posted by the OP.

fc123

"Appreciate my local anecdote is just that - no more. And lengthy, dull, and tedious too."

No it's not! it's interesting because all these little anecdotes help to build up a bigger picture........................but I'm still no clearer on the way to go forward in our situation!

Was the spelling ok?!

[Deleted User]

The house has been on the market for 8 weeks so not a long time at all. The person who rang last re viewing rang the estate agent from a couple of hundred miles away ie they are actively seeking a home

Yes the house is a very good buy and my dd told the EA to market it under 300k instead of the 310k that was suggested. No they will not accept silly offers as the area is desireable and the property is already at a good and fair price and will sell. 4 bed detatched in a good location are few and far between and I don`t see any other at anything near the price they are asking

Yes in the current climate it is naturally fingers-crossed time but they can wait until the spring rush and beyond if needs be

[Deleted User]

carolt. A good observation.

Location and house condition are key and of course the best locations will sell first

and my advice to my dd in this climate is to set moral standards to one side and if gazumping comes into the picture, they should partake

mystic_trev

kittie wrote: »

Yes in the current climate it is naturally fingers-crossed time but they can wait until the spring rush and beyond if needs be

I trust you haven't been partaking in illegal substances! Here's just one of many of todays 'bearish' articles, from someone who predicted the 'market right last year.

As of yet, it is unclear whether this will mutate from a mere slowdown into a full-scale housing crash. The distinction is key. A slowdown means annual house-price inflation dropping to around zero for a few years - so property gradually becomes more affordable compared with our salaries, which grow at a faster rate. A crash is far worse: not only would it mean house prices falling at a faster rate - perhaps 10 per cent or so for a year or two, pushing hundreds of thousands into negative equity - it could tip the entire economy into recession.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.jhtml?xml=/property/2008/01/04/nosplit/pcrash105.xml#form

I'd quite like a spring bounce, as I want to flog one of my BTL's under the new CGT rules!

WTF?_2

m00m00 wrote: »

4.1% looks like it won't cut it any more

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7171345.stm

Don't be too surprised if all these price increases don't get reflected by the official CPI figure. It's become crystal clear to anyone with intelligence that this figure is 'massaged' to be as low as possible.

Anyone who does shopping and pays bills will know what a complete and utter joke the official inflation figure of around 2% is. Food, electricity, gas, oil and petrol have all been rocketing in price over the last six months but the government has beeing telling us that anual inflation is only a couple of percent - claiming that stuff like cheaper furniture and plasma tellies offset all the other huge increases :rolleyes:

I think we're getting back to the days when the ordinary people don't believe a single thing that government ministers utter (I can remember the utter public scepticism as Thatcher fiddled the unemployment figures to get below 3 million). We last saw this around the time of the last recession I think, when people were less inclined to act and think like sheep than they are these days.

TTMCMschine

HugoSP wrote: »

Estate agents in our area are telling us the same.

It seems that confidence is beginning to creep back into the housing market as the BoE hinted that more interest rate cuts are on the way.

Shares in lenders and housebuilders reported a rally after Christmas.

Yes i can't wait. My Grandmother's house has been on since september. So far it's had two, yes count 'em two veiwings. One resulted in an offer which was consequently pulled five days later due to their sale falling through on theirs. "Oh it will pick up in spring" they say "it's just a quiet time of year". And i think quietly to myself who are you trying to convince?!

I suppose it would be pointless them talking the market down, and some of them bless them, sound so young, they've probably only ever worked in a boom - it probably seems so alien to them.

So yes, i am fully expecting to be trampled by viewers in the spring. I'm off to buy combat gear, because i'm need it to defend myself what with there being so many people fighting to buy my Grandma's house. I'll have a carpenter on standby as well in case they break the door down! Especially with those first time buyers being the lowest in 25 years.

All those people telling us how house prices are on the up....oh, hang on a minute - where've they all gone?

Before you go on about it being old etc - a few years ago it would have been snapped up like a shot. Just like ours was sold in two weeks - that wouldn't happen now.

GracieP

I think what is happening now is what is called the Dead Cat Bounce, or Bull-Trap. Where the boom is over, ther bust has started but due to measures such IR cuts and a certain deal of belief in some sections of the public that there are bargains to be had following the "slow-down" there is a brief upswing in the market again. It happens in nearly every boom-bust cycle.

Nenen

mystic_trev wrote: »

I trust you haven't been partaking in illegal substances! Here's just one of many of todays 'bearish' articles, from someone who predicted the 'market right last year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.jhtml?xml=/property/2008/01/04/nosplit/pcrash105.xml#form

Thanks for that link Trev... as I said before I'm very interested in hearing both sides of the HPC debate as I really want to make an informed decision re house buying. On a purely selfish level I am hoping for a large reduction in house prices both for myself and my children (as well as all the other young people and families wanting a decent house).
We are currently STR (not intentionally for potential HPC but other circumstances) and I constantly teeter on the brink of buying or waiting... my dh is keen to wait and keeps citing arguements in favour of a HPC but I constantly worry this will be the wrong thing to do. The graph shown in your link is the most compelling evidence I have ever seen that my dh is correct in encouraging me to wait...



I also found this comment on the article VERY thought provoking!

"A honest assessment of where the market currently stands and where its heading.
Remember this motto: It takes less than 10 seconds for a property owner to be told and accept his house has risen in value 20%, but at least 10 months (often more) to be told and accept it has fallen in value 20%.
The correction is long overdue and necessary, yet many Vested Interest cheerleaders will still continue to try and breathe new life into the dying patient; it will be a futile exercise however.
Why buy today and be a high debt slave for many years to come when more reasonable, affordable prices are only a year or two away?
Posted by David on January 4, 2008 9:53 PM"