Ooh buyers are coming back

Austin_Allegro

PasturesNew wrote: »

Yes. I have been thinking this, but didn't want to be the first to mention is for fear of introducing a new concept to people as new ideas/information seem to produce the most violent responses. I believe this is a short-lived bull-trap - and the real bull-trap will come in 2/3/4 years' time. I think this bull-trap will last 1-2 months MAX, with the one near the bottom of the market lasting 4-6 months.

Pastures New, could you elaborate on this theory a bit? I thought the popular theory was that house prices are on an 18 year cycle of 14 years boom, 4 years bust. So if the bust started around September 2007, we might expect your 'real bull trap' to occur around 2009-2011. But according to the '18 year' theory shouldn't this be when prices start to pick up again? Or do you think the slide will last a lot longer than the 4 year average?

Sorry if this theory is discredited, but I do seem to see it quoted quite often but I've no idea of its source or credibility.

WTF?_2

firsttimetom wrote: »

This Thursday I would expect a hold followed by a possible rise in february, but I expect it'll go the other way.

(That went incredibly off topic, but once my fingers started, it kept flowing).

You have to understand that the threat of inflation is much less 'real' to the general fiscally ignorant member of the public than the threat of their house losing 'value'.

I'd say it's 50/50 for a cut with one coming for sure after that if it doesn't happen. The strategy will be to try to protect the housing market, inflate debts away and save debtors. Increased inflation will be the penalty but that's a potential, future problem.

I don't think that BoE cuts will be effective and we'll end up with a crashing house market, an economic recession and significant price inflation eroding our savings (those of us who have been prudent enough the save, that is). I don't think wage inflation will keep pace as the government is already borrowing record amounts of cash right now and with low interest rates won't be attractive for bond buyers, which is how they raise much of their money. That means they have to keep public sector pay down and private sector pay will be held down by a poor employment market.

bluejake

Austin_Allegro wrote: »

Pastures New, could you elaborate on this theory a bit? I thought the popular theory was that house prices are on an 18 year cycle of 14 years boom, 4 years bust. So if the bust started around September 2007, we might expect your 'real bull trap' to occur around 2009-2011. But according to the '18 year' theory shouldn't this be when prices start to pick up again? Or do you think the slide will last a lot longer than the 4 year average?

Sorry if this theory is discredited, but I do seem to see it quoted quite often but I've no idea of its source or credibility.

I think this what you mean:

'David Owen, the chief European economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said there had only been four times since the Second World War when average house prices were more than seven times disposable incomes: 1948, 1979, 1988 and 2007. In each previous case, house prices then dropped by 30 per cent, adjusted for inflation.'

But this time it is different...:D. Maybe we will see people getting mortgages of 10 or 15x their disposable income somehow and property prices continue going up...

firsttimetom

You have to understand that the threat of inflation is much less 'real' to the general fiscally ignorant member of the public than the threat of their house losing 'value'.

Very true.

I guess my opinion is biased anyway. Being debt free with large savings and the intention of buying a house, I would much prefer inflation was kept under control with the state of the housing market and debtors pushed to one side, BUT i know it will go the other way and of course, more people fall into the debt laden category than don't.

I guess thats the price i'll have to pay for Gordons Miracle

PasturesNew

SquatNow wrote: »

You misundersand... that's an EXTRA £1400 a year, on top of what you pay now... and it's just to pay the pensions of the civil servants who provided services to your parents.

What I was trying to indicate is that without the deficit we could all have had the money in our pockets instead.

Without that deficit our tax codes might have been 1200L instead of 525L for example.

Mrs_Thrify

Hiya all, I had my viewing at lunch time. They were in/out in 5 minutes with EA in toe :eek: . Not realy worth kicking the dog out for! (got son to take him for a walk). EA said will ring :rolleyes:

PasturesNew

Austin_Allegro wrote: »

Pastures New, could you elaborate on this theory a bit? I thought the popular theory was that house prices are on an 18 year cycle of 14 years boom, 4 years bust. So if the bust started around September 2007, we might expect your 'real bull trap' to occur around 2009-2011. But according to the '18 year' theory shouldn't this be when prices start to pick up again? Or do you think the slide will last a lot longer than the 4 year average?

Sorry if this theory is discredited, but I do seem to see it quoted quite often but I've no idea of its source or credibility.

To be honest, I was reining in some of the figures (massaging if you like) to reduce the amount of pi55iness from people who can't contemplate it lasting more than a week or two at the most.

And I didn't know there would be a test at the end!

I am probably expecting to start looking for a bull trap in about 2 years' time. But it might not start for 4 years....

I have no idea if this slide will last for 4 years, or longer. I just have my opinions, I am not an intellectual.

dolce_vita

PasturesNew wrote: »

I have no idea if this slide will last for 4 years, or longer. I just have my opinions, I am not an intellectual.

You don't need to be an expert Pastures, or quote figures from some "reputable source". You can see what's happening with your own eyes.

And that is enough for me as well.

PasturesNew

julie_d wrote: »

Hiya all, I had my viewing at lunch time. They were in/out in 5 minutes with EA in toe :eek: . Not realy worth kicking the dog out for! (got son to take him for a walk). EA said will ring :rolleyes:

5 minutes?
Did the doggy smell put them off?



I couldn't buy a doggy house as my sister has asthma and wouldn't be able to visit me until after I'd removed all carpeting, had the whole place steam cleaned from top to bottom and about 3-4 months had passed.

Good luck anyway!

carolt

The spelling was simply fantastic, fc123! Sorry to have ever mentioned it - no idea you'd take it seriously....

Found the stuff about people on benefits having all those rooms absolutely shocking - I had no idea. There are 5 of us in 4 rooms plus kitchen and bathroom - I can't begin to say how much I would LOVE those extra 2 rooms.... :happyhear