"Average Earnings Growth" and triple lock

LHW99

Grumpy_chap said:

hugheskevi said:

I agree with this, but think that past administrations going back to the previous Labour administrations have brought this upon themselves.

Once upon a time there was well established protocol that announcements would be made in the Commons first, not announced or deliberately leaked in advance.

Yes, past Governments really were far more reserved and "Statesperson-like" in their dealings with the media and both the Governments and the wider Commons membership would adhere to protocol in a somewhat more professional way.

The rise of 24-7 news media creating ever more vacuums to be filled has just driven constant comments going straight to the public without any validation or consideration.  Being an MP is becoming ever-more like a reality TV show.  It can't be long before we get to see "Naked Ambition at First Sight Stranded in Traitors Bar" on our screens - watch these pour souls as they are stranded in a commons bar and only their recently matched partner to support them - but which partner will betray whom to further their own career ahead of true love?

But they also didn't have to worry (so much) about "freedom of information" and "transparency".

MeteredOut

Eldi_Dos said:

Regarding short memories the fiqures of, 412 a increase of 211, 121 a decrease of 251 and 72 a increase of 64 seems have left some forumites still in a state of shock/ denial, but it is pretty clear what the country thought.

I've no idea what this means. Are we playing bingo?

hugheskevi

MeteredOut said:

Eldi_Dos said:

Regarding short memories the fiqures of, 412 a increase of 211, 121 a decrease of 251 and 72 a increase of 64 seems have left some forumites still in a state of shock/ denial, but it is pretty clear what the country thought.

I've no idea what this means. Are we playing bingo?

Parliamentary seats at the 2024 General Election for Labour, Conservative, and Lib Dems, along with increase/decrease.

Eldi_Dos

MeteredOut said:

Eldi_Dos said:

Regarding short memories the fiqures of, 412 a increase of 211, 121 a decrease of 251 and 72 a increase of 64 seems have left some forumites still in a state of shock/ denial, but it is pretty clear what the country thought.

I've no idea what this means. Are we playing bingo?

The fiqures for another type of House.

michaels

Eldi_Dos said:

Regarding short memories the fiqures of, 412 a increase of 211, 121 a decrease of 251 and 72 a increase of 64 seems have left some forumites still in a state of shock/ denial, but it is pretty clear what the country thought.

The only surprise to me is the use of consensus rather than using the big majority to press legislation through.

I think 34.8%, the lowest ever vote share for a governing party (and lower that Corbyn received) should perhaps be remembered by those clearly still in shock/denial....

BlackKnightMonty

Unless the government gets a grip, we will end up like France, where pensioners ‘earn’ more than working age.

Cobbler_tone

Well we know what is coming next. It’ll be fun not talking politics after the next election.

SnowMan

SnowMan said:

SnowMan said:

The earnings percentage used for the earnings element of the triple lock calculation has been established through custom to be the July 2025 seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses figure published today (16th September) of 4.7%. The July 2025 figure is the average of the year on year increase in earnings for the 3 months of May, June and July. 

This July 2025 earnings figure can be subject to a small revision when further earnings data is published on 14th October and 11th November. These publications occur before the budget takes place on 26th November, which is when the triple lock increase is usually announced. For example in 2024 the corresponding July 2024 earnings figure of 4% published in September was revised to 4.1% in October and the triple lock increase was based on this 4.1% revised figure.

So while CPI is unlikely to exceed 4.7% and the earnings element will almost certainly bite, there could still be a small revision to the 4.7%. 

The October further earnings data mentioned above has been published today (14th October) and the July 2025 seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses figure of 4.7% published on 16th September has been revised upwards to 4.8%.
Consequently the anticipated triple lock increase, that should be announced in the budget, should now be 4.8% and not 4.7% unless this July 2025 earnings figure is further revised in the earnings data publication of 11th November. 

CPI is out for September 2025, and at 3.8%, this is what is used for checking the inflation element of the triple lock, so that just confirms that it is the earnings element that will bite, based on the established custom of how triple lock increases are calculated.

So the triple lock increase is expected to be 4.8% unless the July 2025 earnings figure is further revised in the earnings publication of 11th November (which is before the budget date of 26th November). And if it is further revised there would then be the question of whether the revised figure would be used or the 4.8% figure.   

On a separate point the September 2025 CPI figure of 3.8% is relevant for statutory increases in deferment to final salary deferred pensions, as it's this figure that is used as the basis of excess (over GMP) increases into the 2026 calendar year (subject to the rules on which excess the increase applies to and the cumulative over the deferment period 2.5% and 5% maxima that apply).

BlackKnightMonty

SnowMan said:

SnowMan said:

SnowMan said:

The earnings percentage used for the earnings element of the triple lock calculation has been established through custom to be the July 2025 seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses figure published today (16th September) of 4.7%. The July 2025 figure is the average of the year on year increase in earnings for the 3 months of May, June and July. 

This July 2025 earnings figure can be subject to a small revision when further earnings data is published on 14th October and 11th November. These publications occur before the budget takes place on 26th November, which is when the triple lock increase is usually announced. For example in 2024 the corresponding July 2024 earnings figure of 4% published in September was revised to 4.1% in October and the triple lock increase was based on this 4.1% revised figure.

So while CPI is unlikely to exceed 4.7% and the earnings element will almost certainly bite, there could still be a small revision to the 4.7%. 

The October further earnings data mentioned above has been published today (14th October) and the July 2025 seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses figure of 4.7% published on 16th September has been revised upwards to 4.8%.
Consequently the anticipated triple lock increase, that should be announced in the budget, should now be 4.8% and not 4.7% unless this July 2025 earnings figure is further revised in the earnings data publication of 11th November. 

CPI is out for September 2025, and at 3.8%, this is what is used for checking the inflation element of the triple lock, so that just confirms that it is the earnings element that will bite, based on the established custom of how triple lock increases are calculated.

So the triple lock increase is expected to be 4.8% unless the July 2025 earnings figure is further revised in the earnings publication of 11th November (which is before the budget date of 26th November). And if it is further revised there would then be the question of whether the revised figure would be used or the 4.8% figure.   

On a separate point the September 2025 CPI figure of 3.8% is relevant for statutory increases in deferment to final salary deferred pensions, as it's this figure that is used as the basis of excess (over GMP) increases into the 2026 calendar year (subject to the rules on which excess the increase applies to and the cumulative over the deferment period 2.5% and 5% maxima that apply).

Totally unsustainable.

SnowMan

BlackKnightMonty said:

SnowMan said:

SnowMan said:

SnowMan said:

The earnings percentage used for the earnings element of the triple lock calculation has been established through custom to be the July 2025 seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses figure published today (16th September) of 4.7%. The July 2025 figure is the average of the year on year increase in earnings for the 3 months of May, June and July. 

This July 2025 earnings figure can be subject to a small revision when further earnings data is published on 14th October and 11th November. These publications occur before the budget takes place on 26th November, which is when the triple lock increase is usually announced. For example in 2024 the corresponding July 2024 earnings figure of 4% published in September was revised to 4.1% in October and the triple lock increase was based on this 4.1% revised figure.

So while CPI is unlikely to exceed 4.7% and the earnings element will almost certainly bite, there could still be a small revision to the 4.7%. 

The October further earnings data mentioned above has been published today (14th October) and the July 2025 seasonally adjusted total pay including bonuses figure of 4.7% published on 16th September has been revised upwards to 4.8%.
Consequently the anticipated triple lock increase, that should be announced in the budget, should now be 4.8% and not 4.7% unless this July 2025 earnings figure is further revised in the earnings data publication of 11th November. 

CPI is out for September 2025, and at 3.8%, this is what is used for checking the inflation element of the triple lock, so that just confirms that it is the earnings element that will bite, based on the established custom of how triple lock increases are calculated.

So the triple lock increase is expected to be 4.8% unless the July 2025 earnings figure is further revised in the earnings publication of 11th November (which is before the budget date of 26th November). And if it is further revised there would then be the question of whether the revised figure would be used or the 4.8% figure.   

On a separate point the September 2025 CPI figure of 3.8% is relevant for statutory increases in deferment to final salary deferred pensions, as it's this figure that is used as the basis of excess (over GMP) increases into the 2026 calendar year (subject to the rules on which excess the increase applies to and the cumulative over the deferment period 2.5% and 5% maxima that apply).

Totally unsustainable.

Not sure why you've quoted my post, which was a factual post about what next year's triple lock increase would be