Energy Price Cap from October 2024

tseb

Does anyone know why moneysavingexpert site says that the October increase will be 10% and the Cheap Energy club page says it will be 18%?

I thought ML was supposed to be making it easier to decide to stick or twist suppliers.

la531983

At a guess, one is wrong or not been updated recently.

The current guess is £1723, which would be much nearer 10% than 18%

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

mmmmikey

tseb said:

Does anyone know why moneysavingexpert site says that the October increase will be 10% and the Cheap Energy club page says it will be 18%?

I thought ML was supposed to be making it easier to decide to stick or twist suppliers.

They're both estimates made at a point in time, presumably different points in time. We don't know what will actually happen yet, so be aware that they could both be wrong.

tseb

Thanks. Just finding it difficult to decide as usually use Cheap Energy Club to do the hard stats and wondering if they are not as well staffed as they used to be.

BarelySentientAI

tseb said:

Thanks. Just finding it difficult to decide as usually use Cheap Energy Club to do the hard stats and wondering if they are not as well staffed as they used to be.

There are no hard stats yet, only guesses.

You need to make your own guesses based on whatever evidence you believe.

MP1995

Incorrect imo above, Cornwall insights and others have become better at their "educated guesses" since the move to quarterly price cap reviews.

The recent estimates for October even have some hard review period data in them so one might say accurate to within a certain percentage (barring Biden going to war with Putin)

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

spot1034

Wholesale prices have been falling since the last CI update so if that persists it might come in a little lower, but still another five weeks of the assessment period to go. 

BarelySentientAI

MP1995 said:

Incorrect imo above, Cornwall insights and others have become better at their "educated guesses" since the move to quarterly price cap reviews.

The recent estimates for October even have some hard review period data in them so one might say accurate to within a certain percentage (barring Biden going to war with Putin)

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

spot1034 said:

Wholesale prices have been falling since the last CI update so if that persists it might come in a little lower, but still another five weeks of the assessment period to go. 

So they're still guesses, educated ones getting more accurate over time, but still not confirmed, and the OP should use that as evidence to decide their own guess.

What does that make incorrect?

mmmmikey

If you're considering fixing for, say, 12 months in the hope of getting a lower price (i.e. not just for stability) then it's the prices over the next 12 months that matter, not just the October price. Over the next 12 months there will be an American presidential election and if Trump is elected anything could happen to the global economy. It also seems likely that things will come to a head in Gaza and possibly Ukraine, again with unknown effects. Do the CI forecasts factor in the possibility of global price shocks, or just include an "if that happens all bets are off" clause? Important to know if you're going to rely on them.

Easy to forget that fixing isn't just a way of possibly saving a few quid, it's an insurance against the unexpected. It seems to me that prices are more likely to rise unexpectedly than fall - why risk it?

What_time_is_it

What do people here think will happen to the price cap for Jan-Mar 2025?
Apologies to Play Your Cards Right, but.... higher or lower?

EssexHebridean

What_time_is_it said:

What do people here think will happen to the price cap for Jan-Mar 2025?
Apologies to Play Your Cards Right, but.... higher or lower?

Tell you what - as you have every bit as much of an idea as anyone else, you go first. What do you think....and why?