Ofgem Prices from July

stripling

@[Deleted User]  
Funny you should say that because my central heating boiler is not going to last very much longer but even with the grant an ASHP is out of my reach. Octopus don't fit them in my area and any others are financially beyond me. 
LPG is not really an option for my condensing boiler.  It's a catch 22 - because if I buy a new gas boiler there's a fair chance policy-wise that gas prices will be inflated to force consumer change.  

[Deleted User]

stripling said:

@[Deleted User]  
Funny you should say that because my central heating boiler is not going to last very much longer but even with the grant an ASHP is out of my reach. Octopus don't fit them in my area and any others are financially beyond me. 
LPG is not really an option for my condensing boiler.  It's a catch 22 - because if I buy a new gas boiler there's a fair chance policy-wise that gas prices will be inflated to force consumer change.  

Worth doing the sums to compare the cost of a new boiler with the cost of an electric system to replace it and the running costs of a gas system with the running costs of an electric system. Although the unit costs are higher for electricity, you'd save the gas standing charge and any annual servicing costs so it may well be that you'd be better off going electric. Air to air heat pumps (essentially air conditioning units with a reverse mode that allow them to work as heaters) can work well - I have a couple in the back of the house and they use about 1/3 of the energy of more traditional alternatives. And modern HHR storage heaters get good reports on this forum. Food for thought......

BarelySentientAI

Scot_39 said:

1.37 GW / 30GW installed rated capacity as licensed = sub 5%

Todays say 1.37GW vs that winters 40GW demand - would actually only be 3.5%.

You do know that load factor is an actual, technical thing - and isn't a spot calculation based on a single period that happens to support your argument?

We'd get nowhere if we planned the system like that.

wrf12345

It's a pity the govn grant excludes air to air heat pumps as smaller apartments or houses might be able to get away with a single one in the lounge, the bedroom warmed by circulating air and also it get rids of humidity and gives a nice flow of fresh air. Instant hot water heaters and electric shower would solve the hot water problem, although personally I don't use hot water any more but ice cold showers do require an infrared heater in the bathroom for winter, turned on for twenty minutes and consuming 200W in that time.

Scot_39

The lowest Ofgem cap was iirc just under £1050 in 2020/21 - but that was at the previous TDCV levels - which were dropped c 5% last year (11500 vd 12000 4.2% , 2700 vs 2900 6.9%)

So closer to £1000 to compare to current.

So it's up more like 70% in current - and 60% if take today's July - in 3/4 years.

Some of the myriad of charges in the cap do simply escalate with costs / inflation - some however are linked to costs - so drop - e.g. the EBIT allowance - as wholesale drops.  Others have been definite strategies - like the SoLR levies (electric SC / gas uint rate from other posters here iirc), the Covid and now debt specials and the PPM levelisation.

On Apr 1 2024 policy charge jumped £30 (including that £30 - it had only changed £37 in total over five years iirc). the debt charge jumped to £28 for DD/credit and the PPM levelisation levy was added £10 for DD/credit.  £68 in total for DD / credit caps.

Being cynical you might argue Ofgem are taking advantage of the lowering in wholesale prices to add those extras.

When did a similar comparison of Apr 24 cap - network charges were also up £98 - against 2019 some of which again is likely to be inflation.

But we are still a long way from seeing wholesales costs drop back to the £300-£400 in some of the early lower caps iirc.  (£307 - Oct 2020 total £1042 - jumped 20% to £373 in Apr 21 - total £1138 etc). 

From 1st cap in 2019 - See 

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/policy-and-regulatory-programmes/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-policy/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-levels

And tariff letters therein for some price splits and changes.

But trying to index it - you will get mixed results - depening on what old cap you compare it against - as prices were dropping - before started to increase post Covid then Ukraine spikes.

Going back before cap - your 10 years - not sure of a reliable source for pricing.

BarelySentientAI

Scot_39 said:

Going back before cap - your 10 years - not sure of a reliable source for pricing.

The cap spreadsheets show what result the same calculations would have had for a few years before the cap actually starting.

pensionpawn

wrf12345 said:

It's a pity the govn grant excludes air to air heat pumps as smaller apartments or houses might be able to get away with a single one in the lounge, the bedroom warmed by circulating air and also it get rids of humidity and gives a nice flow of fresh air. Instant hot water heaters and electric shower would solve the hot water problem, although personally I don't use hot water any more but ice cold showers do require an infrared heater in the bathroom for winter, turned on for twenty minutes and consuming 200W in that time.

I've just had A/C installed in my lounge and both double bedrooms. It warms as well as cools / purifies the air. As tomorrow morning is forecast to be unusually cold for May, though sunny, I've programmed the A/C to heat rather than take Nest out of Eco mode. It will be interesting to see how this affects my Octopus consumption data. In reverse mode the CoP is suppose to be between 4 and 5.25, which should be marginally better than gas. Fun experiment, though only if my wife wakes up warm lol!

wrf12345

Out of interest how much did you pay for the a/c install, there is a cosy tariff on Octopus with half price energy for two periods a day if you have a heat pump, no idea if air to air qualifies. Quick heating is another benefit of air to air.

pensionpawn

wrf12345 said:

Out of interest how much did you pay for the a/c install, there is a cosy tariff on Octopus with half price energy for two periods a day if you have a heat pump, no idea if air to air qualifies. Quick heating is another benefit of air to air.

Around £5k4 all in. Panasonic. I'm on Octopus Flux so it just costs me my lost export, currently ~ 15p / kWhr, or import at ~25p / kWhr. However with a CoP of 4-5, much less. The rooms warmed well this morning however in the bedrooms, even on quiet mode, they woke us up, however in time we'll no doubt sleep through their start up. No doubt the clanking of gas CH was considered noisy at first. Given that the gas boiler comes on in the morning anyway for hot water, it probably makes sense to let gas do the "first thing in the morning" routine and let the A/C keep the temp throughout the day.

Qyburn

BarelySentientAI said:

Scot_39 said:

1.37 GW / 30GW installed rated capacity as licensed = sub 5%

Todays say 1.37GW vs that winters 40GW demand - would actually only be 3.5%.

You do know that load factor is an actual, technical thing - and isn't a spot calculation based on a single period that happens to support your argument?

We'd get nowhere if we planned the system like that.

The system needs to cope with exactly those "spots" or maybe even more extreme. You can't just say "no wind power today but it doesn't matter because it averages out over the year".