Ofgem Prices from July

t0rt0ise

New cap pricing from July.  Prices include VAT. Scroll down.

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/get-energy-price-cap-standing-charges-and-unit-rates-region

JoshinLeeds

Beat me too it, I'll have to delete my post now!

Sea_Shell

How does that compare with what Cornwall Insights had predicted?    anyone know?

[Deleted User]

Sea_Shell said:

How does that compare with what Cornwall Insights had predicted?    anyone know?

CI predictions are like the estimated arrival times on my satnav. They're always nearly right in the end because they are constantly updated and the nearer you get the easier it is to estimate correctly. Apologies for not answering your question, just making the point that the accuracy of the prediction probably depends on which one you look at. So my question would be, does someone know the history of this, starting with the original forecast and working through each update?

BarelySentientAI

Sea_Shell said:

How does that compare with what Cornwall Insights had predicted?    anyone know?

CI talked more recently than this chart but didn't actually produce a public update table.

CI headline forecast £1559.61 - OFGEM actual £1568.

CI Electric   22.43p/kWh + 60p SC
OFGEM      22.36p/kWh + 60p SC

CI Gas         5.38p/kWh + 32p SC
OFGEM       5.48p/kWh + 31p SC

northernstar007

as im still on the old tracker with lower SC ive not just looked at the northern area
crickey thats high over 70p SC !!!!!! highest in the  country and thats taking the urine

spot1034

It's early days yet to talk about the next price cap but probably just worth a mention here that prices have firmed up quite a bit in the past week or so, and if those higher wholesale rates were to be maintained for the whole of the assessment period between now and mid-August, there could be quite a significant rise in three months time.

BarelySentientAI

Some really interesting bits hidden in the detail (at least to me).

Wholesale cost contribution dropped by about 15% overall, but the CfD contributions in this (paying extra to wind farms when the price is too cheap) went up by 50%.

Network costs were due to drop by 25% but didn't because the balancing costs didn't drop as expected.  Lack of smart meters is a significant technical contributor to that cost.

EBIT allowance dropped by 5% to £38 on the 'average' bill.

[Deleted User]

Does anyone know how today's prices compare with long term prices over the last ten years? I read on the BBC website that they're about £400 more (about 35%?) than they were 3 years ago and given that we had enjoyed low prices for a good few years before that (I think ?)does this mean we're back to some sort of "normal" prices that are in line with long term general inflation?

BarelySentientAI

[Deleted User] said:

Does anyone know how today's prices compare with long term prices over the last ten years? I read on the BBC website that they're about £400 more (about 35%?) than they were 3 years ago and given that we had enjoyed low prices for a good few years before that (I think ?)does this mean we're back to some sort of "normal" prices that are in line with long term general inflation?

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/quarterly-energy-prices goes back to 2015 with publications.

That says that the average annual bills in 2013 were £577 for electricity and £729 for gas -- a total of £1306.

Earlier numbers are only a graph on the summary pages - but more detail is available in the data source tables:


Although you should note that the 'average' consumption has changed so they are not directly comparable without a little extra maths.

MattMattMattUK

[Deleted User] said:

Does anyone know how today's prices compare with long term prices over the last ten years? I read on the BBC website that they're about £400 more (about 35%?) than they were 3 years ago and given that we had enjoyed low prices for a good few years before that (I think ?)does this mean we're back to some sort of "normal" prices that are in line with long term general inflation?

My guess is that we are probably below the forty year average, in line with the twenty year average, above the ten year average and below the five year average when accounting for inflation. I cannot find a reference point for the actual per kWh costs, but if anyone can I am happy to crunch the numbers and work out in line with inflation and average earnings.