Ofgem Prices from July

[Deleted User]

On a related note I used to be a bit skeptical about the role of solar energy in the UK until I started looking at this chart:

https://emoncms.org/ukgrid

Combining solar and wind energy gives a pattern of supply that meets demand very well - i.e. wind at night and a combination of solar and wind during the day. Not the whole story of course but I'm sure this isn't just luck and it illustrates very well that a lot of thought has gone into these £multi-billion investments.

However you look at it, and looping back to a question I asked about how prices have changed over the last ten years or so, there's no avoiding the fact that (a) we're paying much the same now in real terms for energy that we were paying ten years ago (b) we're doing this in a much more environmentally friendly/sustainable way with a high proportion of our energy now coming from low carbon sources.

There's still a way to go but there's plenty to be positive about.

Scot_39

As I said the averages are not the problem

The lows are - as far as securing supply to match demand - to keep the lights on - so need other generation sources.

Adding another c9 or 10GW wind adds just sub 0.5 GW at 5% delivery  -  you cannot confidently remove much if any  existing conventional generation infrastructure - or stop building its replacements as they age.

Think of it as needing a hybrid car with an electric motor and an ice - that you regularly have to run in ice mode -  2 power sources -  the battery motor and ice add significant capital costs.  And to win over those capital costs need to find sufficient savings from lower cost fuel as and when can use it.

And right now - CfD renewables are once again adding costs £20 - and these are going up to £37 in July - and someone has to pay for literally  £10s bn in grid upgrades to connect and distribute often remote new wind and solar locations or capacity upgrades to existing - to consumers.

Longer term we might see savings - but as the last auction demonstrated and at least one licensee saying they were not proceeding on their license  - 22 lows for OSW at 3.7xp  - seem to have long since past.  One large farm builder wanted near double iirc.

Netexporter

And right now - CfD renewables are once again adding costs £20 - and these are going up to £37 in July - and someone has to pay for literally  £10s bn in grid upgrades to connect and distribute often remote new wind and solar locations or capacity upgrades to existing - to consumers.

Still miles cheaper than nuclear and available quickly, not a decade, or more late.

Once V2G for EVs is established, there will be a growing amount of distributed storage available. Similarly home batteries.

MacPingu1986

Scot - I don't think you read my previous post - "backup" generation sources are needed *irrespective* of whether you have a renewable or fossil fuel based grid. nuclear/gas/coal stations trip, need maintenance, can't get the fuel, or just don't turn on if power prices aren't economical. Renewable systems require *more* sure, but that's more than offset by the overall benefits of very cheap clean power (and this is before we even get to the wider urgency and costs of general de-carbonisation and net zero)

I'm not sure where you're getting your 5% load factor figure from - load factors in the UK are around 35% and by having a *diverse* renewable mix we vastly decrease intermittency risk. Solar and wind tend to counter-balance each other, and if it's not windy in one location, that won't be true everywhere, so the intermittency risk is managed that way both within the UK and via the interconnectors in from Europe + growth of battery storage / demand management services. All this stuff is already being managed by grid and the ESO, it's nothing new, just organic growth of existing operations and management.

We don't need need to wonder if we "might" see savings long term, we have the cheap renewable power *now* that more than offsets the increase in network and policy costs. Wholesale prices remain stubbornly high compare to pre-crisis levels because the UK still has a high dependency on fossil fuels, and wholesale gas is expensive.

The latest CfD auction had issues because the government didn't adjust the CfD price to reflect the 10% inflation that the UK faced this year. 

spot1034

Whilst there might be many occasions when if it isn't windy at one location it will be at another, there will still be the risk of a huge area of high pressure parked across the whole of northern Europe in the middle of winter when the temperature is sub-zero in many locations, fog at night lifting to low cloud during the day which blocks out the sunlight which would be at its weakest at that time of year anyway. That is the situation which does occur from time to time, it tests power grids to their limit, and there's no point in looking the other way and saying well it might only happen every second or third or fourth year so we don't need to worry too much - it will still happen and we need to have sufficient backup to cover it.

stripling

northernstar007 said:

as im still on the old tracker with lower SC ive not just looked at the northern area
crickey thats high over 70p SC !!!!!! highest in the  country and thats taking the urine

I was too (early V1) but I am now paying more in gas standing charges than I am for gas. My energy bill as a low user has increased by approx £500 a year. More than half of that is for standing charges. 
We need a better standing charge system - in Spain it's banded based on estimated annual use. 

[Deleted User]

stripling said:

northernstar007 said:

as im still on the old tracker with lower SC ive not just looked at the northern area
crickey thats high over 70p SC !!!!!! highest in the  country and thats taking the urine

I was too (early V1) but I am now paying more in gas standing charges than I am for gas. My energy bill as a low user has increased by approx £500 a year. More than half of that is for standing charges. 
We need a better standing charge system - in Spain it's banded based on estimated annual use. 

Have you done the sums to work out if you'd be better off ditching gas altogether and going all electric? Or maybe using bottled gas?

Scot_39

1.37 GW / 30GW installed rated capacity as licensed = sub 5%

Even in the event of failure - taking one say gas, coal or nuclear plant boiler unit out would only drop say as little as 0.5 GW. Even the large nuclear reactors at Hinkley would only take 1.6 GW out at a time.

Wind can see the output range from last years highs of c22GW to lows of sub 2 GW - e.g. 1.3x GW - where its again been today = against a throretical rated capacity of 30GW.

Even compared to last years average = c9.4 GW, todays - 1.3x GW is 8GW below that.  Thats the equivalent of taking several plants off line at once - for maintenance or fault - not one.

Regular maintainence could be scheduled around peak demand months - the same cannot be said for winds failure to deliver. 

The first instance I mentioned was in a cold snap - Sunday - so light industrial / office loads - but still c40GW demand. Wind from c30GW capacity at the time. 

The second today at about 1:35-1:40pm - just over 30 GW demand.

Todays say 1.37GW vs that winters 40GW demand - would actually only be 3.5%.

Some of the renewable power that is available now - and forecast for coming quarters if you read the Ofgem cap letter - is not cheaper - if it was renewables under CfD from 2015 auction on  - would not once again be increasing our bills.

It did save money during the peak of gas and so electric from gas generation - but that is not the case now. Currently £20, today's July cap increased added costs to £37 built in the wholesale costs - of just over £600 for gas and electric - in the total cap.

And as to the 10% figure - I think you'll find that the industry was asking for nearer 100% not 10% for OSW.  Work on Norfolk Boreas was stopped by Vattanfal citing iirc upto 40% cost increases a year.

Other parts of the renewables auction were subscribed too - only FOSW failed to receive bids - not that you would know that from some of the articles written at the time.

Other similar auctions in other EU states also failed to attract bids - the UK was not alone.

stripling

[Deleted User] said:

Does anyone know how today's prices compare with long term prices over the last ten years? I read on the BBC website that they're about £400 more (about 35%?) than they were 3 years ago and given that we had enjoyed low prices for a good few years before that (I think ?)does this mean we're back to some sort of "normal" prices that are in line with long term general inflation?

That's a very British definition of 'low' - our consumer energy prices are generally a lot higher than many other European countries.  Although of course ours were a lot lower than they are now. 
I know my DD has risen in the last 4 years from £45 pcm to £105 pcm. During that time my electric consumption has never changed and my gas consumption has shrunk considerably.  

[Deleted User]

stripling said:

[Deleted User] said:

Does anyone know how today's prices compare with long term prices over the last ten years? I read on the BBC website that they're about £400 more (about 35%?) than they were 3 years ago and given that we had enjoyed low prices for a good few years before that (I think ?)does this mean we're back to some sort of "normal" prices that are in line with long term general inflation?

That's a very British definition of 'low' - our consumer energy prices are generally a lot higher than many other European countries.  Although of course ours were a lot lower than they are now. 
I know my DD has risen in the last 4 years from £45 pcm to £105 pcm. During that time my electric consumption has never changed and my gas consumption has shrunk considerably.  

I agree - the word I should have used was "lower" Your experience sounds fairly typical, hopefully we are through the worst of it now.