Tesla Developments

paul991

As  some one who only buys second  hand cars this would not effect me 

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Indeed: “ One thing is certain: depending on the model, electric cars are less harmful to the climate than internal combustion engines only after 60,000 to 110,000 kilometres.”

The average car in the UK is driven around 10,000km per year, so that’s between 6 and 11 years to break even. 

Is it, though?
I am not disputing the average mileage figure as a simple internet search will return average mileages in the similar order to that you have suggested.

It is not necessarily the case that the average mileage necessarily equates to the 6 (or 11) year CO2 break-even.

It seems quite plausible that the higher-mileage driver would be the more likely to invest in the brand new car, so 20k miles per year (which is certainly not an excessive mileage for a business user) is 30k km.  By the time the company vehicle is divested at the end of a 4-year lease, 120k km have been covered and the embedded CO2 break-even already surpassed.
The second owner of that vehicle is then realising the CO2 gains with no further embedded CO2 impact.

JKenH

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

Let’s assume the CO2 manufacturing emissions of the both cars excluding battery are the same. 

Why are we assuming that ?  Has somebody invented a method of manufacturing IC engines that doesn't generate any CO2 ?  The battery may well generate more but to include that whilst excluding the bits an EV doesn't have seems rather silly.

Because I am attempting to explain a principle. I could just as easily have said “let’s assume that the additional CO2 cost of manufacturing an EV is 5tons of CO2”. However if you want to be picky about it we can be. EVs are substantially heavier than their ICE counterparts and that isn’t all just down to the battery weight. 

Let’s look at the Peugeot 208 as an example, a small hatchback which is available with either a petrol engine or as an electric car. If you go for the 1.2-litre petrol model, it tips the scales at 1,090kg. On the other hand, the all-electric e-208 with its 50kWh battery weighs in at 1,910kg, almost double the amount.

https://www.carwow.co.uk/editorial/going-electric/ev-tips-and-advice/are-electric-cars-heavier-than-petrol-and-diesel-cars

The difference in weight between the two cars (the Peugeot 208 I believe uses the same platform as the Corsa) is 820kg of which the battery itself probably accounts for about half of that. So even excluding the battery there is another 400kg of extra materials in the EV over and above the weight of the complete ICE car. Those materials/components all need to be manufactured and there is a CO2 cost to that. I don’t know what they are but probably a significant amount of steel, copper and aluminium (and possibly some rare earth metals) and all of that is CO2 intensive to manufacture. So, actually in addition to the battery, in the case of a car like the Corsa, there is a significant further CO2 debt still to recover from the additional material manufacturing cost. 

EricMears

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

Let’s assume the CO2 manufacturing emissions of the both cars excluding battery are the same. 

Why are we assuming that ?  Has somebody invented a method of manufacturing IC engines that doesn't generate any CO2 ?  The battery may well generate more but to include that whilst excluding the bits an EV doesn't have seems rather silly.

Because I am attempting to explain a principle. Albeit not managing to make the 'explanation'   clear "


I could just as easily have said “let’s assume that the additional CO2 cost of manufacturing an EV is 5tons of CO2”. 
Only if you have found out that 5 tons is an appropriate figure.

Apparently I need to include 10 characters outside the quote block.

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Indeed: “ One thing is certain: depending on the model, electric cars are less harmful to the climate than internal combustion engines only after 60,000 to 110,000 kilometres.”

The average car in the UK is driven around 10,000km per year, so that’s between 6 and 11 years to break even. 

Is it, though?
I am not disputing the average mileage figure as a simple internet search will return average mileages in the similar order to that you have suggested.

It is not necessarily the case that the average mileage necessarily equates to the 6 (or 11) year CO2 break-even.

It seems quite plausible that the higher-mileage driver would be the more likely to invest in the brand new car, so 20k miles per year (which is certainly not an excessive mileage for a business user) is 30k km.  By the time the company vehicle is divested at the end of a 4-year lease, 120k km have been covered and the embedded CO2 break-even already surpassed.
The second owner of that vehicle is then realising the CO2 gains with no further embedded CO2 impact.

That’s a fair point regarding company cars but not everyone drives a company car and many people buy EVs as second cars or are retired like I was and don’t do big miles. Out of curiosity it would be interesting to take a straw poll on here of EV miles driven pa, but as the sample would be self selecting, it wouldn’t prove anything, one way or the other . 

Something else, though, to bear in mind, there is a lead time from when cars are built to when they get in the road. Much of the CO2 cost in mining materials for the battery are incurred months before the batteries are manufactured whereas the CO2 from running an ICE car is incurred as it is used.

I think it is fair to say that there are times, aggravated by demand or supply chain issues, when the gap between incurring the CO2 debt in producing the battery and it starting to offset CO2 could be a year or more. As an example, my Leaf purchased in March 2020 left the factory in August 2019 and that was before COVID kicked in with all the supply chain issues for electronic components. The battery CO2 debt could have easily been well over a year. That was for a car manufactured in the UK. Cars being shipped from China are taking a further couple of months to reach the consumer. Reports abound that there is a substantial oversupply of EVs and there may be millions of EVs sitting at docks and on airfields which have all substantially contributed to CO2 emissions in manufacturing that are doing nothing to pay back CO2 debt. When I looked, last month, even Tesla still had 2023 model TM3s (pre Highland) available. 

Edit: I just had a quick look on Autotrader and there are 732 BEVs from 2023 being advertised with less than 100 miles on the clock. That might only be a small percentage but the likelihood is that on average there has been unmitigated CO2 debt outstanding for over a year, if not more, on those cars. 

JKenH

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

Let’s assume the CO2 manufacturing emissions of the both cars excluding battery are the same. 

Why are we assuming that ?  Has somebody invented a method of manufacturing IC engines that doesn't generate any CO2 ?  The battery may well generate more but to include that whilst excluding the bits an EV doesn't have seems rather silly.

Because I am attempting to explain a principle. Albeit not managing to make the 'explanation'   clear "


I could just as easily have said “let’s assume that the additional CO2 cost of manufacturing an EV is 5tons of CO2”. 
Only if you have found out that 5 tons is an appropriate figure.

Apparently I need to include 10 characters outside the quote block.

I tried to pick a figure (5tons) that I didn’t think would present a problem even if it was on the low side. MIT Climate looked at 4 papers rejected one and gave a range of 2400 kg to 16000kg depending on country of manufacture for an 80 kWh battery https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-much-co2-emitted-manufacturing-batteries The 16000kg figure referred to China where I hypothesised the battery might be made as the majority are so on this basis a 50kWh battery might produce 10 tons of CO2. As I said I chose 5 tons to try and avoid argument (little chance) but can use the 10 ton figure if you prefer. 

I note you have criticised my figures and even called my simplifications “silly” but as I explained, it wasn’t the numbers per se that mattered rather the principle of accumulated carbon dioxide. You don’t like my figures but you don’t give alternative calculations and that type of criticism might be regarded as sniping.  

Perhaps as a metallurgist and presumably, compared to the rest of us an expert in these matters, you would like to explain the difference in weight between the ICE and EV Corsas/208s and give your calculations of the relative CO2 figures for manufacture. Do you still consider I was being “silly” suggesting we focus just on the extra CO2 cost of the battery?

As for your comment “Albeit not managing to make the 'explanation'   clear “, I apologise if my explanation wasn’t clear but for some it might be a difficult concept to accept. It is always easier to explain something to a receptive mind and I am well aware on this board that there may be a fundamental resistance (an objection in principle, if you like) to the principle I am trying to explain, so it was never going to be easy. Your reaction, therefore, doesn’t really surprise me

JKenH

An explanation of the EV battery supply chain which might help give some indication of the time frame involved. It is the earl6 stages of mining and processing which generate the most CO2.

What is the EV battery supply chain?

The term supply chain describes the process by which a product is made and delivered to a consumer.

The steps involved in producing and using an EV battery fall into four general categories:

• Upstream: Mines extract raw materials; for batteries, these raw materials typically contain lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, and graphite.
• Midstream: Processors and refiners purify the raw materials, then use them to create cathode and anode active battery materials; commodities traders buy and sell raw materials to firms that produce battery cells.
• Downstream: Battery manufacturers assemble the battery cells into modules and then pack and sell them to automakers, who place the finished batteries in EVs. Some automakers like Ford and Stellantis have formed partnerships with battery manufacturers to produce their own batteries for the vehicles they sell.

https://rmi.org/the-ev-battery-supply-chain-explained/

Magnitio

JKenH said:

Let’s look at the Peugeot 208 as an example, a small hatchback which is available with either a petrol engine or as an electric car. If you go for the 1.2-litre petrol model, it tips the scales at 1,090kg. On the other hand, the all-electric e-208 with its 50kWh battery weighs in at 1,910kg, almost double the amount.

https://www.carwow.co.uk/editorial/going-electric/ev-tips-and-advice/are-electric-cars-heavier-than-petrol-and-diesel-cars

The difference in weight between the two cars (the Peugeot 208 I believe uses the same platform as the Corsa) is 820kg of which the battery itself probably accounts for about half of that. So even excluding the battery there is another 400kg of extra materials in the EV over and above the weight of the complete ICE car. Those materials/components all need to be manufactured and there is a CO2 cost to that. I don’t know what they are but probably a significant amount of steel, copper and aluminium (and possibly some rare earth metals) and all of that is CO2 intensive to manufacture. So, actually in addition to the battery, in the case of a car like the Corsa, there is a significant further CO2 debt still to recover from the additional material manufacturing cost. 

It's worth doing some fact checking before posting information. The unladen weight of a Peugeot e-208 is 1530kg, 1910kg is the gross vehicle weight i.e. the max weight the car is designed for with passengers and luggage. https://ev-database.org/uk/car/1168/Peugeot-e-208 

If I get some time, I will fact check the rest of your posts for you.

JKenH

Magnitio said:

JKenH said:

Let’s look at the Peugeot 208 as an example, a small hatchback which is available with either a petrol engine or as an electric car. If you go for the 1.2-litre petrol model, it tips the scales at 1,090kg. On the other hand, the all-electric e-208 with its 50kWh battery weighs in at 1,910kg, almost double the amount.

https://www.carwow.co.uk/editorial/going-electric/ev-tips-and-advice/are-electric-cars-heavier-than-petrol-and-diesel-cars

The difference in weight between the two cars (the Peugeot 208 I believe uses the same platform as the Corsa) is 820kg of which the battery itself probably accounts for about half of that. So even excluding the battery there is another 400kg of extra materials in the EV over and above the weight of the complete ICE car. Those materials/components all need to be manufactured and there is a CO2 cost to that. I don’t know what they are but probably a significant amount of steel, copper and aluminium (and possibly some rare earth metals) and all of that is CO2 intensive to manufacture. So, actually in addition to the battery, in the case of a car like the Corsa, there is a significant further CO2 debt still to recover from the additional material manufacturing cost. 

It's worth doing some fact checking before posting information. The unladen weight of a Peugeot e-208 is 1530kg, 1910kg is the gross vehicle weight i.e. the max weight the car is designed for with passengers and luggage. https://ev-database.org/uk/car/1168/Peugeot-e-208 

If I get some time, I will fact check the rest of your posts for you.

Thanks, much appreciated. I suppose you felt you owed me after my helpful comments about the erroneous EV fire stats you quoted. You just can’t trust anything you read on the internet. Nothing like a peer review to highlight flaws in any argument. Everybody wins. 

EricMears

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

Let’s assume the CO2 manufacturing emissions of the both cars excluding battery are the same. 

Why are we assuming that ?  Has somebody invented a method of manufacturing IC engines that doesn't generate any CO2 ?  The battery may well generate more but to include that whilst excluding the bits an EV doesn't have seems rather silly.

Because I am attempting to explain a principle. Albeit not managing to make the 'explanation'   clear "


I could just as easily have said “let’s assume that the additional CO2 cost of manufacturing an EV is 5tons of CO2”. 
Only if you have found out that 5 tons is an appropriate figure.

Apparently I need to include 10 characters outside the quote block.

I tried to pick a figure (5tons) that I didn’t think would present a problem even if it was on the low side. MIT Climate looked at 4 papers rejected one and gave a range of 2400 kg to 16000kg depending on country of manufacture for an 80 kWh battery https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-much-co2-emitted-manufacturing-batteries The 16000kg figure referred to China where I hypothesised the battery might be made as the majority are so on this basis a 50kWh battery might produce 10 tons of CO2. As I said I chose 5 tons to try and avoid argument (little chance) but can use the 10 ton figure if you prefer. 

I note you have criticised my figures and even called my simplifications “silly” but as I explained, it wasn’t the numbers per se that mattered rather the principle of accumulated carbon dioxide. You don’t like my figures but you don’t give alternative calculations and that type of criticism might be regarded as sniping.  

Perhaps as a metallurgist and presumably, compared to the rest of us an expert in these matters, you would like to explain the difference in weight between the ICE and EV Corsas/208s and give your calculations of the relative CO2 figures for manufacture. Do you still consider I was being “silly” suggesting we focus just on the extra CO2 cost of the battery?

As for your comment “Albeit not managing to make the 'explanation'   clear “, I apologise if my explanation wasn’t clear but for some it might be a difficult concept to accept. It is always easier to explain something to a receptive mind and I am well aware on this board that there may be a fundamental resistance (an objection in principle, if you like) to the principle I am trying to explain, so it was never going to be easy. Your reaction, therefore, doesn’t really surprise me

Not sure why you think I might be a metallurgist ?  In fact I spent my career as a chemist/chemical engineer in the cement industry although reasonably familiar with other heat generating processes.

If your research shows a range of 2400 kg to 16000kg depending on country of manufacture for an 80 kWh battery,  alarm bells ought to be ringing !  How on Earth could a similar manufacturing process give results differing by a factor of 6.67 ?  I believe Magnitio has already explained that the apparent difference in weight between a Corsa and a Peugeot e208 stems from misreading the respective specs !   It might have been more thorough to use either the Vauxhall or Peugeot  websites to compare either conventional Corsa vs e-Corsa or conventional 208 vs e-208.

But don't overlook the small (but not zero) amounts of extra iron/steel used in an ICEV for the engine block, fuel tank & lines etc.  It's absolutely pointless trying to explain a concept by plucking numbers out of the air rather than researching them properly.