When do you think the first cut in the BoE interest rate will come?

What_time_is_it

Really interesting split of votes on this. 
Particularly the columns should around 1/5 think there will not be a cut in the rate this year at all!

jimexbox

I voted before I read the US inflation figures. Possibly only one cut late in the year. Although the BoE will come under huge pressure to cut rates faster. 

refluxer

From : https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1045055/ftse-100-live-stocks-fall-back-astrazeneca-pay-vote-nears-house-prices-recover-1045055.html

UK rate cut to come in September not August, says analysts 

UK markets are predicting the first rate cut will come in September rather than August, but will still be 0.25%, analysts said. 

Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto, said the changes in expectations came after the release of a hotter-than-expected US inflation reading, which sent the treasury market into a tizzy. 

He said: The Treasury market had its worst day since the Kamikwaze Budget sparked turmoil in gilts.

"The 2yr jumped about 20bps, the most since the regional banking crisis a year ago. The 10yr yield has also risen more than 20bps since the data was released and traders have now priced out a June rate cut.

"That is a big shift from the start of the year – the last mile is proving the hardest. The boulder in the pond is creating ripples elsewhere."

Hoenir

Veteransaver said:

Fed could potentially be increasing rates. UK and Euro will need to follow to some extent, the other central banks always do

Euro is likely to chart a different course. 

Hoenir

S_uk said:

Looks like the fed will be keeping rates higher for longer given the higher than expected US inflation figures released today.

If you read the Fed's actual minutes rather than the constant market chitter chatter commentary. Very little has actually changed since last year. UK inflation is likely to fall then rise a little. Though the announced changes to import duties levied on certain products wil have the benefit of lowering imported inflationary pressures.

slinger2

Seems unlikely to me that the BoE will cut rates in May. The question is then whether they'll wait until the ECB or the Fed cut theirs, and then follow, or whether they might cut first.

GazzaBloom

MeteredOut said:

thunderroad88 said:

I’m more interested in when the Fed will start cutting rates…

At the risk of repeating myself, where the "increase" option?

"Jamie Dimon: Bank boss warns US interest rates could rise to 8%"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68769561

Ah Jamie Dimon, the bellwether of correct forecasting that he is. Often seen on CNBS but not at all fond of the sound of his own voice or smell of his own farts, noooh.

Castle

Hoenir said:

S_uk said:

Looks like the fed will be keeping rates higher for longer given the higher than expected US inflation figures released today.

If you read the Fed's actual minutes rather than the constant market chitter chatter commentary. Very little has actually changed since last year. UK inflation is likely to fall then rise a little. Though the announced changes to import duties levied on certain products wil have the benefit of lowering imported inflationary pressures.

On the other hand, new Brexit import controls to be introduced at the end of this month may raise inflation.

Hoenir

Castle said:

Hoenir said:

S_uk said:

Looks like the fed will be keeping rates higher for longer given the higher than expected US inflation figures released today.

If you read the Fed's actual minutes rather than the constant market chitter chatter commentary. Very little has actually changed since last year. UK inflation is likely to fall then rise a little. Though the announced changes to import duties levied on certain products wil have the benefit of lowering imported inflationary pressures.

On the other hand, new Brexit import controls to be introduced at the end of this month may raise inflation.

I personally focus on the far wider global macro picture. 

Swipe

Give it a rest guys and lets stick to interest rates or the thread will get locked