Budget predictions / discussion

friolento

enthusiasticsaver said:

 

I think he may lose the triple lock on state pensions.

He doesn't have to do that, and won't do it as it would attract the wrath of the main Conservative voter cohort. There is currently enough money in the NI Fund to finance several years of TL. The point in time when TL inevitably becomes unsustainable is still some time away.

hallmark

If I had to bet on something that WON'T happen it's ending the triple lock.  That would serve the Tories no political benefit and be an absolute gift to Labour if they're in power for the next 5 years.

Albermarle

Hoenir said:

Albermarle said:

Quite a few polls seem to show that the majority of the public would prefer to see waiting times for NHS services cut, ( and other improvements in public services)  rather than tax cuts.

Has more to do with "political" strikes than money being spent. 

I am not going to disagree that just keep pouring money into the NHS, will solve all its problems.

However the mood of the public seems to be moving in a direction of ' what is the point of 1p off NI, if it takes me two weeks to get a GP appointment'
This mood is what will affect the way they vote ( rightly or wrongly) .

boingy

I also think we'll see the suggested 2% cut in NI, which won't benefit the grey voters at all but will be cheaper than the same cut in income tax. I think we'll see another "almost budget" closer to the election date, by which time they'll be desperately hoping they can claim that we're out of recession with interest rates under control. But, frankly, I don't think the current government can do anything to win the next election.

friolento

hallmark said:

If I had to bet on something that WON'T happen it's ending the triple lock.  That would serve the Tories no political benefit and be an absolute gift to Labour if they're in power for the next 5 years.

Neither the Tories nor Labour nor any other Party will trash the Triple Lock in their forthcoming Manifestos. They all know there is existing money in the NI Fund to pay for it for a number of years hence, and they all want/need to woo the grey vote.

The issue of long-term sustainability of TL won't go away. They'll all just kick the can down the road for as long as they can.

boingy

friolento said:

They'll all just kick the can down the road for as long as they can.

That's every policy, from every politician, from all parties, ever!

barafear799

I note that the predictions have moved away from the early thoughts of a cut to the main basic rate of income tax - to the cheaper alternative of NI and then whether it is 1p or 2p. Why not "split the difference" and take a penny off both NI and Income tax? I agree with most sentiments on here that not much will turn things around for the Govt - nor will it have a huge impact on individual's take home pay - or certainly its buying power (given prices are still increasing more than wages - when I say prices, I'm probably referring to other stuff on the horizon such as rent/mortgage payments which potentially are/could be rising at much more than the official CPI. Of course, unfreezing the tax thresholds would help us all - but can't see it being much of a vote winner - as it's unlikely any change to them would be significant enough to be noticed. 

Grumpy_chap

barafear799 said:

Why not "split the difference" and take a penny off both NI and Income tax?

A penny off NI is much cheaper than a penny off Income Tax.
Reducing NI will benefit "hardworking families" / "squeezed middle" but not the retired, rich (who gain income from shares etc) plus it will "make work pay".

Hoenir

Albermarle said:

Hoenir said:

Albermarle said:

Quite a few polls seem to show that the majority of the public would prefer to see waiting times for NHS services cut, ( and other improvements in public services)  rather than tax cuts.

Has more to do with "political" strikes than money being spent. 

I am not going to disagree that just keep pouring money into the NHS, will solve all its problems.

However the mood of the public seems to be moving in a direction of ' what is the point of 1p off NI, if it takes me two weeks to get a GP appointment'
This mood is what will affect the way they vote ( rightly or wrongly) .

Underlying the budget is the serious task of steering the UK economy as a whole in the long term not the next 12 months. Media focusing on the parts that create click bait/ it understands.   More money in peoples pockets circulates back to the Treasury in one form or another. As it gets spent eventually. Or actually even invested. Not the complete giveaway it's portrayed to be when the budget is fully analysed . More a shuffling of deckchairs. 

george4064

These NI cuts (recently and chatter of another) does worry me, that the state pension is going to be cut.

Isn't it NI contributions that fund the state pension? I get a feeling that NI is getting cut because it might not be needed going forward, if state pension gets scrapped altogether.