Budget predictions / discussion

hallmark

Seems a fairly low-key buildup.  There's some chat about reducing Income Tax.

IMO the focus should be increasing some of the many frozen thresholds. Those are brutal after at least 30% inflation

friolento

I predict a further cut in NI. Hunt can raid the NI Fund without inflicting pain on anyone in the near term, without the need to reduce any other budget, or to increase borrowing. The ongoing NI payments will cover the pension and other obligations for the enxt few years, and there's currently enough spare cash in the NI Fund to finance 3-5 years of Triple Lock, so he can pretend all is rosy and claim that prudent management of the economy enables him to reduce the NI/tax burden for the working population.

What it means in reality is that the NI Fund will be exhausted earlier than it is already forecast, but as this is still outside the next Parliament, no politician will care about it. Which is also the reason why Labour will almost certainly not attack further NI cuts.

Will NI cut be a vote winner? Some working people will no doubt like it - who doesn't like tax cuts. But the clever ones will notice that the fiscal drag will still mean higher taxes overall. Also, the grey vote will not be satisfied as they are not paying any NI. Hunt will try and throw them an olive branch, too, perhaps with a slightly raised Personal Allowance for Pensioners, and/or with higher ISA allowances.

I would like to see a change to the tax incentives for pension contributions. 25% or 30% for all, to further encourage lower earners to build a pension for themselves. Doubtful he will announce this.

Albermarle

Quite a few polls seem to show that the majority of the public would prefer to see waiting times for NHS services cut, ( and other improvements in public services)  rather than tax cuts.
So maybe whatever he does in this area, will have little positive impact on the voters. 
A 1 % NI cut seems to be favourite. Plus hopefully some relaxation in LISA withdrawal rules ( not for me but a family member !) 

MattMattMattUK

NI will be cut by the pre-trailed 2%, tobacco taxes up, taxes on vapes introduced. Beyond that I do not think we will see much, if anything of note, there is not the fiscal headroom for even the 2% cut, but it will happen regardless, they will then promise more in their election campaign, knowing that they will never have to implement it and can leave Labour with a mess to clean up. 

Bigwheels1111

We're doomed doomed I tell you.

aroominyork

Hunt is saying he will not make any irresponsible tax cuts, which is presumably laying the ground for a big tax cut on the grounds it is "responsible and affordable".

enthusiasticsaver

Keeping the personal allowances frozen is their way of dragging more people into paying tax as inflation linked pensions and wages pull us over the thresholds. I would like to see Hunt raise them but I don't think he will. 

The cut in NI will help workers but not pensioners but given he is saying he will not increase debt that means cuts in public services as the economy is still on the ground. That won't be popular either. 

I think he may lose the triple lock on state pensions. If he has any sense he will reduce vat to encourage spending but I cannot see him doing that.  He won't want to increase business taxes or the rates of tax and he has said he won't raise the thresholds for higher rate tax payers so I am at a loss as to what he can do beyond a bit of tinkering. 

njm123

I predict I'll be relatively worse off after this budget, as whilst I'm not in a group targeted for tax rises, I'm also not in a group that he has any interest in helping with tax cuts.  So in real terms largely untouched but relatively worse off as other more favoured groups will get  a bit more in their pocket so inflate the cost of resources we're competing for.

Will get worse when Labour are in as they'll double or even treble down on helping groups I'm not part of.

Hoenir

Albermarle said:

Quite a few polls seem to show that the majority of the public would prefer to see waiting times for NHS services cut, ( and other improvements in public services)  rather than tax cuts.

Has more to do with "political" strikes than money being spent. 

Hoenir

friolento said:

Will NI cut be a vote winner? 

More interested in the broader long term impact  than pure politics. Anything which results in actual work paying must be beneficial. Wealth isn't created by selling houses or shares to each other. While simply borrowing more and more which has to be repaid over longer and longer timescales. Remember Brown always kept to his promise not to increase income tax. Instead every year quietly built in an increase to National Insurance for the following year that went unnoticed. 

eskbanker

enthusiasticsaver said:

I think he may lose the triple lock on state pensions.

I think that would be what Sir Humphrey would famously have labelled "a courageous decision", but there's a lengthy thread on the pensions board about this:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6509551/should-the-triple-lock-be-scrapped-in-the-6-march-budget

https://twitter.com/YesSirHumphrey/status/1539101124778762241