For those that believe ASHP and EV's are increasing demand

born_again

Andreg said:

ASHPs and EVs are increasing demand because there are more of them coming into use all the time.  In suggesting otherwise I wonder if you are making a joke or trying to make a serious point?

UK electricity consumption has been falling for years for various reasons, including particularly energy efficient lighting, and this trend seems unlikely to continue.

You are missing solar set ups & batteries that many use to power ASHP's & EV's 👍

As well as part of the reducing demand, as people create their own power.

greenbee

Qyburn said:

pete-20-11 said:

Qyburn said:

Managing demand would be a big help. I can see how it can be done by scheduling EV charging, but can it be done for heat pumps? I had understood that they need to run pretty much 24/7 to be efficient. Recall the complaints in the US about electricity providers cutting back customers air conditioning during a heat wave. The UK equivalent would be turning off ASHPs during cold Winter days when there's no wind.

Not sure if it's the same everywhere, but my friend was paid when he let the electric company control his air con. He could opt out for that day if he wanted to, but otherwise get a bit of money back if he was happy to cool the place slightly less than usual. 

That's probably the same thing.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/texas-power-grid-thermostats-heat-b1869989.html

Bearing in mind that the "grid" in the US is pretty flaky by our standards.

The Texas grid isn’t connected to the rest of the US and it causes problems when they have unexpected cold snaps too. But despite the impact, they’re not prepared to be connected to the rest of the country. 

Micro generation in the US is becoming popular with businesses and householders in states that have regular power cuts (generators seem to be standard equipment in Connecticut for example), it’s interesting that one of the big generator suppliers has recently acquired a startup with tech to manage micro generation https://solarbuildermag.com/news/kohler-power-group-acquiring-heila-technologies-to-expand-der-focus/

markin

MultiFuelBurner said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/03/uk-gas-coal-electricity-fossil-fuels-renewables

Look at this downward trend in total demand

If total Generation has also dropped by coal and nuclear not being replaced then the chart is pointless, Heat pumps, HGV's and Busses will add to daytime load, I don't believe all routes will manage a full day on a night charge, or will always have time to do a full charge if working over night.

Trains with batteries will also be day charging.

Winter peak times are the problems so no help from Solar, So it will have to be mass storage when the wind is low.

MacPingu1986

Markin - I think you've misunderstood the chart - look at the red line that shows *total* demand - that's what's being flagged as on a downward trend, and that's because total demand is *also* blow the 2000 peak (because generation must match usage)

markin

MacPingu1986 said:

Markin - I think you've misunderstood the chart - look at the red line that shows *total* demand - that's what's being flagged as on a downward trend, and that's because total demand is *also* blow the 2000 peak (because generation must match usage)

No i understand the chart, As demand has fallen over the years so will have Generation peak thats available, So if we double the demand and any is in the day time vs night the will be a generation shortfall at peak times, In winter, With low wind and no sun.

Nuclear has peaked and will soon will be very low, leaving it all up to Gas, Wind and storage.

We have lost 13GWH of peak generation from 2010-2022.

Within the next 3 years, or when the next plant closes we could be limited to a peak of 47 GWH if wind drops to 0, meaning we would be reliant entirely on the interconnects to have spare energy when they may have little wind themselves. Norway won't power all the EU!


If EV sales and heapumps actually exploded, The grid would not have time to adapt, all their plans seem too long term 2030, 2040.

 



 NG think they can add 40 GWP of Wind, like that will fix everything, But the day time peak won't start moving up until 2027, Chart from July 2013.

Coal has already pretty much gone now and most the nuclear has been scrapped so the chart is really off.

Qyburn

Out of interest, do ASHPs (or GS for that matter) have power factor correction? Just asking because a technical paper I'm reading has mentioned reactive power management as a contributory factor in the 2003 US failure. Specifically pointing to the poor PF of small induction motors as used in domestic AC. That was 20 years ago so equipment should be better. But as domestic customers aren't billed for reactive power, maybe not. 

markin

Qyburn said:

Out of interest, do ASHPs (or GS for that matter) have power factor correction? Just asking because a technical paper I'm reading has mentioned reactive power management as a contributory factor in the 2003 US failure. Specifically pointing to the poor PF of small induction motors as used in domestic AC. That was 20 years ago so equipment should be better. But as domestic customers aren't billed for reactive power, maybe not. 

They are inverter based now so should have a lower surge, but they will still ramp up and use more power if the outside temp drops 1c - 5c as the sun sets.