Stock Market Predictions 2024

sevenhills

Hoenir said:

[Deleted User] said:

How will the following markets do?

1. Global
   
2. USA
   
3. UK
   
4. Emerging markets (India, China, Mexico)

Financially the world is now highly interlinked. Purely from a UK perspective returns may well be determined more by currency movements rather than by actual domestic economy performances.

I have just been watching a YouTube speaker saying that China is in dire state and if it fails wwe will all fail. 
Just an opinion from a guy with a poney tail,, so probably total tosh. 

Macsidia

Theres dozens of videos on youtube predicting a crash, so I'm saying it will continue to rise.

mark_cycling00

People who didn't invest before the FTSE went from 7300 to 7800 in a few weeks, now confidentially predict a crash. 

Always the same. 

Baldeagle095

How does the flatlining UK economy affect equity? Is this already built in to the markets?

Linton

I predict there will be a 50%+ global crash in the next 12 months with absolute certainty and will then contimnue investing in the same way regardless....

If it happens I can write a bestseller and get 5 years on the lecture circuit as "the man who predicted the 2024 crash".  If the prediction is wrong there's no loss.

Swipe

Baldeagle095 said:

How does the flatlining UK economy affect equity? Is this already built in to the markets?

If you invest globally the UK economy is pretty much irrelevant

adindas

Predicting the future with absolute certainty, a 100% probability, is impossible. However, individuals can increase the likelihood of accurate predictions by closely observing the crucial factors influencing the global stock market. Among the key factors are:

1.The Centra Bank (FED) Monetary Policy: The Fed's decisions on interest rates will significantly impact market sentiment and corporate borrowing costs.

2. Inflation: Continued decline in inflation would be positive for markets, while renewed inflationary pressures could trigger further tightening and dampen investor confidence.

3. Geopolitical Events: Unexpected events like global conflicts or political instability could trigger market turbulence.

4. Corporate Earnings: Strong corporate earnings performance would boost investor confidence and support stock prices.

Recent Statements from Jerome Powell and economic trend:

December 13, 2023: The Fed maintained its current interest rate range, holding it steady at 4.25% to 4.50%. While acknowledging some progress in slowing inflation, Chair Jerome Powell stated they haven't "decided how much further to raise rates.

November 1, 2023: Powell hinted at potentially pausing rate hikes, noting the "cumulative tightening of monetary policy" and the need to assess its impact.

October 19, 2023: Powell suggested the Fed might hold rates steady at the next meeting but left the door open for future hikes if economic data warrants it.

Economic Trends:
Slowing Inflation: Inflation has shown signs of cooling, potentially heading to the Fed's target of 2%. This might reduce pressure for aggressive rate hikes from the FED. Good for the stock Market.

Economic Growth: The economy is showing signs of slowing, raising concerns about a potential recession. The Fed wants to avoid stifling growth with further tightening. Again Good for the stock Market.

Geopolitical Uncertainty: Global events like the Ukraine war and tensions between China and Taiwan, Gaza war. This one is difficult to predict.

Unless there is another geopolitical event, there is a clear sign that the global stock market in 2024 will be performing better than 2023.  This is also the opinion of reasonable number of financial analysts at CNBC.

Where is Type_45 nowadays who predicted the stock market to crash 80%  in this thread ??

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6275320/economy-crash-stock-market-crash/p1

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6373283/how-much-longer-will-this-bear-market-go-on-for/p1

Swipe

adindas said:

Where is Type_45 nowadays who predicted the stock market to crash 80%  in this thread ??

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6275320/economy-crash-stock-market-crash/p1

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6373283/how-much-longer-will-this-bear-market-go-on-for/p1

I suspect they are quite relieved that they got banned.

Hoenir

Baldeagle095 said:

How does the flatlining UK economy affect equity? Is this already built in to the markets?

The value of the equity would remain static. Though UK listed companies derive much a high % of their revenue from overseas. Net result will be that UK equities will continue to remain good value while investors shun them. 

coastline

Most will be pleased there's been a rally since October in equity and bonds . Sticking with the UK and bonds the 10 yr Gilt Bond Yield has dropped from 4.75% to 3.5% . Similar in the US . So what's priced in and what's not given there's forecasts of rate cuts worldwide in 2024. ? That could well be it ? All of it ? Well unless there's a recession central banks don't want and cut even more ? So all boils down to the predicted recession and will it happen ? 

UK 10 Year Gilt Bond Yield - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com)

VGOV has rallied but still under for the year. Yield is 3.3% ish and YTM 4.4% ish. Could easily go sideways in 2024 ?

Vanguard UK Gilt UCITS ETF, UK:VGOV Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:VGOV, Vanguard UK Gilt UCITS ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

The shock inflation has eased but been highlighted it usually has further waves. ? As if by magic it would really fall to 2% and stay there which the central banks continue to push.

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From that Pensioncraft video it highlights the aggregate P/E ratio in the US which is exaggerated by the Mega 7. Been talked about for good while now. Many are negative about the US and it's 60% market share of the global tracker. Let's say they get their wish and those 7 fall 50% . According to the video they represent 30% of the weight in the SP 500 ? So the US market falls 15% if these stocks re-rate. Just a guess ? Would the rest of the markets stay the same or fall in sympathy. ? I don't know the answer but most of the world equity markets would then be more in line . Japan is P/E 14 so not far behind. UK and Europe have forward valuations of just 10 but again that's an aggregate . Growing companies tend to trade at a premium and the dominant players such as BP in the UK are closer to 10 . There's reasons why the markets have stocks at certain levels. Another one in favour of the US is forecasts for 2025 are even better. I'll predict an early sell off / correction in 2024 after the rally we've just had . Mightn't be much just depends on the slowdown forecast and rate cuts. Rate cuts have tended to be bad news historically ? Then all will be priced in again and away we go. Choppy year that's my prediction but you can't predict anything really. Good luck.

F8japLjWAAA5MXN (700×420) (twimg.com)

video on the SP 500 v global portfolio

Don't Invest in the S&P 500. Especially if you're retired. (108-year backtest results) (youtube.com)

Our Best Investment Ideas for 2024 | Morningstar