Advice on fix

matt_drummer

QrizB said:

matt_drummer said:

They could remain the same as now or they could go up significantly should unforseen events occur.
What is virtually impossible to happen is that fixes will appear that are significantly lower than they are now. Prices may come down a little but it is practically certain it won't be by a lot.

You keep saying this, but its only your opinion.

One might instead say that energy prices are currently double the long-term historical average and are extremely likely to fall in the medium term as market forces exert themselves.

Well, of course it is my opinion, I add that sometimes.

I doubt that 12 months would count as the medium term.

12 months is not that far away, and in my opinion (obviously) prices are not going to fall much if anything.

Places like Cornwall Insight support this assertion.

People come here to ask strangers for advice, my opinion is as valid as yours or anybody else's.

Come back to me this time next year.

If prices have halved I will quite happily admit how wrong I was.



Please don't castigate me for giving what I believe to be sound advice without backing up your criticism.


I have asked several people why they are deliberating over a fix now, how much do they think prices will fall.

I never get an answer..


How much do you think prices might fall in the next 12 months and why?

QrizB

matt_drummer said:

Please don't castigate me for giving what I believe to be sound advice without backing up your criticism.

Apologies, I did not intend to be seen as castigating you but in hindsight I can see how it reads that way. I will edit my post to remove personal references.

Sorry, this next bit will be necessarily personal.

matt_drummer said:

I doubt that 12 months would count as the medium term.
12 months is not that far away, and in my opinion (obviously) prices are not going to fall much if anything.

Part of what prompted my reply was that your assertions in this thread have not included a timeframe. On the face of it, you are claiming that energy prices will never fall. I thought this needed to be challenged, and (hoping to avoid confusion) I included reference to "the medium term" in my post.
I agree that 12 months is not the medium term.

matt_drummer said:

I have asked several people why they are deliberating over a fix now, how much do they think prices will fall.
I never get an answer..
How much do you think prices might fall in the next 12 months and why?

Over the next 12 months I consider that a 10% fall in prices is just as likely as a 10% rise, and that any change is more-likely-than-not will be within those bounds. Feel free to fact-check me on this in August 2024.

Any larger change during the 12-month period will be due to wider social-political-economic factors. There are rumblings of a potential recession in China, for example, and if this occurs it might be expected to result in demand for all commodities (including energy) falling. A fall in demand usually means a fall in prices, and I would guess that this could filter through to a 20%+ fall in consumer energy prices by this time next year. Again, we'll know whether anything like this has happened by August next year.

My medium-term is 3-5 years. Why 3-5 years? Because current energy prices will promote additional generation, but building generation takes time - weeks for rooftop solar, years for utility-scale renewables, a decade or so for nuclear.

The UK has a pipeline adding about 10GW of renewable electricity generation (producing something like 30TWh of electricity) each year, much of it at a fixed wholesale price of less than £60/GWh (6p/kWh), equivalent to a retail price of under 20p/kWh. plus there's HPC due to come online in 2025, 3.2GW of 24/7 electricity at somewhere around £100/kWh. That has got to bring average prices down.

Agile price plunges are an extreme example, but they illustrate the influence of the UK's increasing renewables supply. I'm sure we've seen more negative-pricing periods this year than in the entire previous history of Octopus Agile, while the (unweighted) average price of Agile has been lower than the cap - ie. the price plunges haven't been entirely offset by higher prices during low-renewables periods.

Edit: here's a table from Nordpool showing average wholesale electricity prices in the UK, in £/MWh, by month, for the last decade. you can see just how abnormal the last 24 months have been, although May to July have been a lot closer to the norm.

matt_drummer

QrizB said:

Apologies, I did not intend to be seen as castigating you but in hindsight I can see how it reads that way. I will edit my post to remove personal references.

Sorry, this next bit will be necessarily personal.

Part of what prompted my reply was that your assertions in this thread have not included a timeframe. On the face of it, you are claiming that energy prices will never fall. I thought this needed to be challenged, and (hoping to avoid confusion) I included reference to "the medium term" in my post.
I agree that 12 months is not the medium term.

All the posts I have replied to are concerning 12 month fixes.

There was no need to specify the time period as it was implicit in the thread topic.

Anybody considering a fix need only concern themselves with price changes during the duration of the fix.

As all of the fixes were for 12 months my comments and opinions only related to that timeframe.

I would have thought that was obvious but clearly not.



But, not that I was ever suggesting this or intending to suggest this, I don't believe prices will fall that much in any future, I even hope they don't.

I think the current prices are about right and maybe even a little low, especially for gas.

As a whole, in my opinion, we have become too accustomed to cheap energy and have become wasteful. The last two years have prompted everybody (to some extent) to become more aware of how much energy they consume and have become less wasteful.

I am aware of and sympathetic to those who have struggled but that is a different matter. 

More awareness and a reduction in energy use and wise energy use can only be good for all of us in the longer term.

For me, the less we burn the better.



But to be clear, my replies to people's dilemmas regarding fixes only applied to the period of the fix.



Finally, on a positive and friendly note, apology accepted.

I agree with most or even all of your posts and hold you in high regard here.

cook0891

manic37 said:

ArbitraryRandom said:

Erm... this might be a silly thing to say (and a bit late) - but if you take the fix today (in case it's pulled after the announcement) then you can cancel at any point within 14 days without paying the exit fees. 

So you can fix now AND keep an eye on any other offers/predictions over the next couple of weeks.  

Not according to EON Next.

Looks like depends who you speak to….

gj373

Thanks for all the advice, went ahead and fixed today

gj373

cook0891 said:

manic37 said:

ArbitraryRandom said:

Erm... this might be a silly thing to say (and a bit late) - but if you take the fix today (in case it's pulled after the announcement) then you can cancel at any point within 14 days without paying the exit fees. 

So you can fix now AND keep an eye on any other offers/predictions over the next couple of weeks.  

Not according to EON Next.

Looks like depends who you speak to….

According to their contract terms the 14 day cooling off only applies when switching supplier

cook0891

gj373 said:

cook0891 said:

manic37 said:

ArbitraryRandom said:

Erm... this might be a silly thing to say (and a bit late) - but if you take the fix today (in case it's pulled after the announcement) then you can cancel at any point within 14 days without paying the exit fees. 

So you can fix now AND keep an eye on any other offers/predictions over the next couple of weeks.  

Not according to EON Next.

Looks like depends who you speak to….

According to their contract terms the 14 day cooling off only applies when switching supplier

I have just rang them and they said it does apply. Seems some are getting different information to others. 

As my 2 year fix ends 3rd September I am going to fix tonight, using the 14 day cooling off period, if something better comes out following news tomorrow. 

manic37

cook0891 said:

manic37 said:

ArbitraryRandom said:

Erm... this might be a silly thing to say (and a bit late) - but if you take the fix today (in case it's pulled after the announcement) then you can cancel at any point within 14 days without paying the exit fees. 

So you can fix now AND keep an eye on any other offers/predictions over the next couple of weeks.  

Not according to EON Next.

Looks like depends who you speak to….

gj373 said:

cook0891 said:

manic37 said:

ArbitraryRandom said:

Erm... this might be a silly thing to say (and a bit late) - but if you take the fix today (in case it's pulled after the announcement) then you can cancel at any point within 14 days without paying the exit fees. 

So you can fix now AND keep an eye on any other offers/predictions over the next couple of weeks.  

Not according to EON Next.

Looks like depends who you speak to….

According to their contract terms the 14 day cooling off only applies when switching supplier

Very confusing information EON Next are giving out, been chatting to them today, it looks like by the last poster they do have a 14 day cooling off period even for existing customers choosing new tariffs 

I have a cheap 2 year fix ending Oct 7th so deciding whether to choose new Next Secure Fixed 12M V1 fix with exit fees or choose Next Pledge Tracker 12M V1 without exit fees before tomorrow's Ofgem Price Cap announcement. 

cook0891

manic37 said:

cook0891 said:

manic37 said:

ArbitraryRandom said:

Erm... this might be a silly thing to say (and a bit late) - but if you take the fix today (in case it's pulled after the announcement) then you can cancel at any point within 14 days without paying the exit fees. 

So you can fix now AND keep an eye on any other offers/predictions over the next couple of weeks.  

Not according to EON Next.

Looks like depends who you speak to….

gj373 said:

cook0891 said:

manic37 said:

ArbitraryRandom said:

Erm... this might be a silly thing to say (and a bit late) - but if you take the fix today (in case it's pulled after the announcement) then you can cancel at any point within 14 days without paying the exit fees. 

So you can fix now AND keep an eye on any other offers/predictions over the next couple of weeks.  

Not according to EON Next.

Looks like depends who you speak to….

According to their contract terms the 14 day cooling off only applies when switching supplier

Very confusing information EON Next are giving out, been chatting to them today, it looks like by the last poster they do have a 14 day cooling off period even for existing customers choosing new tariffs 

I have a cheap 2 year fix ending Oct 7th so deciding whether to choose new Next Secure Fixed 12M V1 fix with exit fees or choose Next Pledge Tracker 12M V1 without exit fees before tomorrow's Ofgem Price Cap announcement. 

I was about to fix but then thought, how would you know what deals are available following tomorrow announcement, as won’t they all disappear from your account when sign up? 

So will have nothing to compare to? 

manic37

cook0891 said:

manic37 said:

cook0891 said:

manic37 said:

ArbitraryRandom said:

Erm... this might be a silly thing to say (and a bit late) - but if you take the fix today (in case it's pulled after the announcement) then you can cancel at any point within 14 days without paying the exit fees. 

So you can fix now AND keep an eye on any other offers/predictions over the next couple of weeks.  

Not according to EON Next.

Looks like depends who you speak to….

gj373 said:

cook0891 said:

manic37 said:

ArbitraryRandom said:

Erm... this might be a silly thing to say (and a bit late) - but if you take the fix today (in case it's pulled after the announcement) then you can cancel at any point within 14 days without paying the exit fees. 

So you can fix now AND keep an eye on any other offers/predictions over the next couple of weeks.  

Not according to EON Next.

Looks like depends who you speak to….

According to their contract terms the 14 day cooling off only applies when switching supplier

Very confusing information EON Next are giving out, been chatting to them today, it looks like by the last poster they do have a 14 day cooling off period even for existing customers choosing new tariffs 

I have a cheap 2 year fix ending Oct 7th so deciding whether to choose new Next Secure Fixed 12M V1 fix with exit fees or choose Next Pledge Tracker 12M V1 without exit fees before tomorrow's Ofgem Price Cap announcement. 

I was about to fix but then thought, how would you know what deals are available following tomorrow announcement, as won’t they all disappear from your account when sign up? 

So will have nothing to compare to? 

Good point, you'd have to check on here and get unit rates for any new deals from other posters. 

Just as I thought I had it sorted EON Next message me this, !!!!!!! Now I am confused. 🤦‍♂️