Advice on fix

gj373

matt_drummer said:

gj373 said:

I'm tempted to go for it as I can only see the cap going up in December and this offer may be withdrawn on Friday. Very torn

What are you thinking of doing garden?

Can I ask, why are you torn?

What is the possible gain in not fixing now?

What could you lose by not taking the fix when offered, let's say if costs go up by 25% in December?

There's potentially very little to gain by not fixing with a much higher chance of losing loads in my opinion.

I don't see what the dilemma is?

In case there are lower fixes once the new price cap comes in?

la531983

gj373 said:

matt_drummer said:

gj373 said:

I'm tempted to go for it as I can only see the cap going up in December and this offer may be withdrawn on Friday. Very torn

What are you thinking of doing garden?

Can I ask, why are you torn?

What is the possible gain in not fixing now?

What could you lose by not taking the fix when offered, let's say if costs go up by 25% in December?

There's potentially very little to gain by not fixing with a much higher chance of losing loads in my opinion.

I don't see what the dilemma is?

In case there are lower fixes once the new price cap comes in?

That's the gamble you take. Nobody on here knows. 

matt_drummer

gj373 said:

matt_drummer said:

gj373 said:

I'm tempted to go for it as I can only see the cap going up in December and this offer may be withdrawn on Friday. Very torn

What are you thinking of doing garden?

Can I ask, why are you torn?

What is the possible gain in not fixing now?

What could you lose by not taking the fix when offered, let's say if costs go up by 25% in December?

There's potentially very little to gain by not fixing with a much higher chance of losing loads in my opinion.

I don't see what the dilemma is?

In case there are lower fixes once the new price cap comes in?

There may be lower fixes, there may not be, but they aren't going to be very much lower than those be offered now if at all, they could well be higher.

My point is that if you are concerned enough about future price rises to consider a fix then there really isn't any good reason for not taking the fix now. It is almost certain that you will save virtually nothing by waiting.

As an example, let's say your annual electricity use is 3,000 kWh and the price went down by 1p per kWh you would save £30 a year.

Is £30 a year worth the risk?

matt_drummer

la531983 said:

That's the gamble you take. Nobody on here knows. 

True, but I think most of us can be pretty confident that prices aren't going down by much.

In gambling terms the odds are pretty poor, very little potential return for the risk of not fixing.

la531983

matt_drummer said:

la531983 said:

That's the gamble you take. Nobody on here knows. 

True, but I think most of us can be pretty confident that prices aren't going down by much.

In gambling terms the odds are pretty poor, very little potential return for the risk of not fixing.

I agree and this current issue with the gas strikes is pushing the Jan cap up and this will be priced into any new fixes. 

GardenGirl77

gj373 said:

I'm tempted to go for it as I can only see the cap going up in December and this offer may be withdrawn on Friday. Very torn

What are you thinking of doing garden?

I am very tempted to grab it now in case it disappears, but would worry that it could turn out to be the wrong decision if better deals become available in the meantime. I suppose if things change and much better deals start to emerge it would be worth paying the £75 exit fee.

Just writing this is making me think that I should go for it so thank you.

GardenGirl77

Clicker9180 said:

I am in the same situation. 2 year fix ending in October, got an email for a new offer today. Based on the "Should I fix my energy or stay on the Price Cap?" calculator on this website (won't let me post the link because my account is new) I'd save 4% compared to the July price cap.

My questions is, if I go for this fixed deal now, will it start in October when my old fix ends? Or will the new fix start now so I lose 1.5 months of my old cheap deal?

When I click through to the quote page it states that you can take the deal today and they will switch when the current fix ends. It's worth double checking but it should be the same for you .

Swipe

So if the energy suppliers are offering fixes at current rates then why would the suppliers do this if the prices is more likely to go up on average over the next 12 months. They would be locking in a probable loss (by Matt's reckoning)? Surely if they expected prices to go up on average, then the fix would be slightly more expensive?

la531983

Swipe said:

So if the energy suppliers are offering fixes at current rates then why would the suppliers do this if the prices is more likely to go up on average over the next 12 months. They would be locking in a probable loss (by Matt's reckoning)? Surely if they expected prices to go up on average, then the fix would be slightly more expensive?

Because they will have already bought the energy on the futures markets.

matt_drummer

Swipe said:

So if the energy suppliers are offering fixes at current rates then why would the suppliers do this if the prices is more likely to go up on average over the next 12 months. They would be locking in a probable loss (by Matt's reckoning)? Surely if they expected prices to go up on average, then the fix would be slightly more expensive?

Yes, I would expect the fixes to become slightly more expensive in the near future based on what we know now.

They could remain the same as now or they could go up significantly should unforseen events occur.


What is virtually impossible to happen is that fixes will appear that are significantly lower than they are now. Prices may come down a little but it is practically certain it won't be by a lot.

If it is almost certain that prices aren't coming down by much and there's more chance of them going up a lot in the coming months then not fixing now is a mistake.

Fixing is not about locking in at the absolute rock bottom, it's about protecting yourself against potentially damaging future price rises.

If you weren't worried about the future you would never consider a fix.