Price Cap predictions

Mstty

poppellerant said:

Mstty said:

poppellerant said:

Part of me would rather they left the prices as they currently are, to help absorb the costs for January.

I'm not ungrateful for a price drop, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

If you want certainty plenty of fixes around offering savings under the current price cap. 

Which site/s would you recommend to find these fixes?

CSI_Yorkshire said:

poppellerant said:

Part of me would rather they left the prices as they currently are, to help absorb the costs for January.

I'm not ungrateful for a price drop, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

We already see enough "but the spot price for tomorrow at 2pm is quite low, why are the energy companies all profiteering" without deliberately inflating the difference.

Perhaps if the reasoning were explained then people might understand, but I completely hear you.

I mean it seems a bit weird sending a user of the forum with nearly 2000 posts to an MSE fixed deals link but here you go.

Also don't forget sometimes it's better to switch and get a referral fee (£50) then fix at the best rate. Very MSE.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/-are-there-any-cheap--fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it--/

la531983

Gas prices up 10% today based on the possibility of a strike on the other side of the world, as a result the Jan cap has gone up.

It's a bit volatile.

Scot_39

From The Times at

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australian-strike-threats-loom-over-gas-prices-kh96pwzq9

Says UK month ahead prices for gas today 100p+ per therm - from under 70p at the start of that month.

Be interesting to see how much of that normal seasonal variation - and how much is Australia supply threat - but its a very large swing.

And that sort of price rise (over 40% - maybe near 50%) - doesn't have to hang around for very long - before it could blow future predictions out of the window.

And if were to last - well maybe the £3000 EPG threshold - isn't as dead a protection as we all hoped it would be this winter.

QrizB

Scot_39 said:

Says UK month ahead prices for gas today 100p+ per therm - from under 70p at the start of that month.

You can see the commodity market prices for yourself at The ICE. I haven't felt the need to post this link for a few months:

https://www.ice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5419497

A couple of examples:

• Gas for delivery in September closed just shy of 100p/therm (3.41p/kWh), up from 68p/therm (2.32p/kWh) on the 1st of August.
• Gas for delivery in January closed at 154p/therm (5.25p/kWh), up from 132p/therm (4.50p/kWh) on the 1st.

Have prices risen? Yes.

Are they still a *lot* cheaper than last year? Yes. In July last year, gas for winter 23/34 was over 300p/therm (10.5p/kWh). At the same time, gas for winter 22/23 was 500p/therm (17p/kWh).

Compared to the tone of that linked thread, this winter looks to be well under control.

Scot_39

Thanks

Just it had numbers for the change - and an actual price definition - whereas the BBC article just had 10% for the day - and that was based on a second hand report from Bloomberg without a link.

michaels

QrizB said:

Scot_39 said:

Says UK month ahead prices for gas today 100p+ per therm - from under 70p at the start of that month.

You can see the commodity market prices for yourself at The ICE. I haven't felt the need to post this link for a few months:

https://www.ice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5419497

A couple of examples:

• Gas for delivery in September closed just shy of 100p/therm (3.41p/kWh), up from 68p/therm (2.32p/kWh) on the 1st of August.
• Gas for delivery in January closed at 154p/therm (5.25p/kWh), up from 132p/therm (4.50p/kWh) on the 1st.

Have prices risen? Yes.

Are they still a *lot* cheaper than last year? Yes. In July last year, gas for winter 23/34 was over 300p/therm (10.5p/kWh). At the same time, gas for winter 22/23 was 500p/therm (17p/kWh).

Compared to the tone of that linked thread, this winter looks to be well under control.

Prices for the Jan-Mar price cap setting window are now considerably higher than they were for the Oct-Dec period that is about to be announced.

QrizB

michaels said:

Prices for the Jan-Mar price cap setting window are now considerably higher than they were for the Oct-Dec period that is about to be announced.

Yes and no.

If I'm reading the guidance correctly, Ofgem will be looking at prices for the next 12 months.  Gas for delivery in summer 2024 hasn't moved much. This should dilute the effects of price rises in the nearer-term market.