Price Cap predictions

poppellerant

Part of me would rather they left the prices as they currently are, to help absorb the costs for January.

I'm not ungrateful for a price drop, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

Mstty

poppellerant said:

Part of me would rather they left the prices as they currently are, to help absorb the costs for January.

I'm not ungrateful for a price drop, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

If you want certainty plenty of fixes around offering savings under the current price cap. 

CSI_Yorkshire

poppellerant said:

Part of me would rather they left the prices as they currently are, to help absorb the costs for January.

I'm not ungrateful for a price drop, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

We already see enough "but the spot price for tomorrow at 2pm is quite low, why are the energy companies all profiteering" without deliberately inflating the difference.

Scot_39

Ofgem dropped from 6m to 3m to make the system track market rates quicker.
In part to protect suppliers with no hedged supply contracts, but on down side we see price rises sooner too.
But also has the advantages our bills drop sooner too.
You might not like the changes.
Other people here are happy to live with 1/2 hourly or daily live rates.
But there are other significant differences inherent in the pricing basis - not just time averaging or lack of it.

bristolleedsfan

poppellerant said:

, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

Current price cap is £2,074, Cornwall Insight current prediction for Q124  see link on last post on previous page which is immediately prior to your post   £1,979.76

spot1034

bristolleedsfan said:

poppellerant said:

, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

Current price cap is £2,074, Cornwall Insight current prediction for Q124  see link on last post on previous page which is immediately prior to your post   £1,979.76

Isn't that Q124 figure using the new lower (2700kWh/11500kWh) average consumption figures? Like for like comparison for Q124 using old consumption figures is £2082.56.

bristolleedsfan

spot1034 said:

bristolleedsfan said:

poppellerant said:

, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

Current price cap is £2,074, Cornwall Insight current prediction for Q124  see link on last post on previous page which is immediately prior to your post   £1,979.76

Isn't that Q124 figure using the new lower (2700kWh/11500kWh) average consumption figures? Like for like comparison for Q124 using old consumption figures is £2082.56.

The only relevant TDCV in January will be the lower TDCV taking effect from October, Cornwall insight current prediction for Q124 is £1,979.76 compared with £2,074 now (what future cap levels would have been based on current TDCV for what consumers will be paying in future is irrelevant bar showing for illustration purposes reductions are at least in part due to that change)

michaels

What_time_is_it said:

Cornwall Insight have the following predictions for the price cap next quarter and beyond.
What do you think the price caps will be?

Electricity	Q423 Forecast	Q124 Forecast	Q224 Forecast	Q324 Forecast
Standing Charge (£/day)	0.50	0.50	0.57		0.57
Per Unit Costs (p/kWh)	28.27	29.46	27.83		26.70
Gas	Q423 Forecast	Q124 Forecast	Q224 Forecast	Q324 Forecast
Standing Charge (£/day)	0.29	0.29	0.29		0.29
Per Unit Costs (p/kWh)	7.06	7.63	7.39		7.25

Unless someone can tell me otherwise, these are neither predictions nor forecasts but are merely what the price cap would be if current futures prices remain the same until the cap setting period.  Thus any change in the market (for example expectations on what the supply/demand position will be over the winter) will change the forward projection.  Assuming such changes are basically random (efficient markets) then the decision on whether on not to fix is one of whether you want to gamble on prices falling and risk them increasing or whether you prefer not to take risk.

Also when comparing a fix to SVR note that the price is currently forecast to be highest during the peak use quarter so simply comparing the fix prices against the average of the 4 quarterly forecast prices will make the fix look slightly worse than it is.

poppellerant

Mstty said:

poppellerant said:

Part of me would rather they left the prices as they currently are, to help absorb the costs for January.

I'm not ungrateful for a price drop, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

If you want certainty plenty of fixes around offering savings under the current price cap. 

Which site/s would you recommend to find these fixes?

CSI_Yorkshire said:

poppellerant said:

Part of me would rather they left the prices as they currently are, to help absorb the costs for January.

I'm not ungrateful for a price drop, but it seems like it's only going to last for 3 months before they put the prices up even higher than they are now.

We already see enough "but the spot price for tomorrow at 2pm is quite low, why are the energy companies all profiteering" without deliberately inflating the difference.

Perhaps if the reasoning were explained then people might understand, but I completely hear you.

Scot_39

It's something I have been criticised for saying in the past.

But fixes are not necessarily about saving money - they are about pricing stability.

I have taken 2 year fixes in past that came with an initial small price premium.  The last in Feb 21 - still saved a fortune given Ukraine.

Even some of the initial 1yr fixes came with no savings - and the new ones often small (0-5%).

The cheap suppliers have largely gone - the market has changed - as have the geopolitical realities governing it in EU and UK for years to come.

The recent 40% gas spike - based on announcement of strikes - not actual strikes and shipments actualky being blocked - in just one LNG source nation shows how tight supply remains and so volatile the current market for UK and EU remains.

CI's and others forecasts are just forecasts, an informed guide - not a guarantee.

It want stability fix

If want to gamble on cap dropping take a cap tracker or stay on SVT.

If want to gamble on daily or 1/2 hourly market - Octopus have tariffs to suit.

Worrying about a few % vs current SVT or on cap predictions either way - given in Jan the Ofgem not EPG cap was more than double current - or the recent LNG threat 40% spike - seems perhaps to have lost sight of what I suspect are still very much currently higher pricing biased risks.