Price Cap predictions

What_time_is_it

Cornwall Insight have the following predictions for the price cap next quarter and beyond.
What do you think the price caps will be?

Electricity	Q423 Forecast	Q124 Forecast	Q224 Forecast	Q324 Forecast
Standing Charge (£/day)	0.50	0.50	0.57		0.57
Per Unit Costs (p/kWh)	28.27	29.46	27.83		26.70
Gas	Q423 Forecast	Q124 Forecast	Q224 Forecast	Q324 Forecast
Standing Charge (£/day)	0.29	0.29	0.29		0.29
Per Unit Costs (p/kWh)	7.06	7.63	7.39		7.25

Scot_39

They normally publish the 2 in parallel, so look again on their Website or twitter feed at where you got those unit prices - or do the maths.

Those look like the July 24 price figures - which are already potentially a bit old by now (*)

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

365xsc + 2700 x electric unit rate
365xsc + 11500 x gas unit rate.

2700 and 11500 the Oct onwards tdcv iirc.

So making direct comparisons with the current q3 23 £2074 and the old EPG £2500 more difficult - as they were based on 2900 and 12000 units respectively.


The CI forecast was £20 out for July iirc c 2054 vs actual 2074.

And the current regional average electric sc isn't 50p but nearer 53p according to mse article.  So not sure if that 7p rise is correct or not.

So best to view such tables as a guide to trends.

(*) As last week's jump in gas wholesale due iirc to fears over LPG issues in Australia (announcements re possible strikes at terminals halting shipments according to some reports) - 40% on peak, settled 27% on the day - now ? - the energy market is still very much on the edge as global supply remains tight.

And so rumours and actions that it would have ridden through in past - are amplified in pricing.

No one knows the future much beyond next Q.

frugalmacdugal

Hi,

this was the MSE newsletter last week,

wild666

I'm on the tracker tariff with Octopus so the price cap isn't affecting me as the average kWh price is around 17p which is around 12p lower than the cap price. The daily rate has being as low as 9p on one Sunday and the SC is only 48.65p, about 7p per day lower than the cap price for electric and 26.84p and for gas about 0.8p per day lower.
Since going on the tracker in July my monthly bill in July was £46.48, nearly £26 lower than the June bill of just under £72 

CSI_Yorkshire

I could be wrong, but I thought the OP was asking what we thought would happen - not asking for advice on how to read the CI figures.

I think that Q4 is about right, Q1 and Q2 are underestimates and Q3 is an overestimate.

More interest will come in fixes of various flavours. 

Mstty

What_time_is_it said:

Cornwall Insight have the following predictions for the price cap next quarter and beyond.
What do you think the price caps will be?

Electricity	Q423 Forecast	Q124 Forecast	Q224 Forecast	Q324 Forecast
Standing Charge (£/day)	0.50	0.50	0.57		0.57
Per Unit Costs (p/kWh)	28.27	29.46	27.83		26.70
Gas	Q423 Forecast	Q124 Forecast	Q224 Forecast	Q324 Forecast
Standing Charge (£/day)	0.29	0.29	0.29		0.29
Per Unit Costs (p/kWh)	7.06	7.63	7.39		7.25

I believe this gives an indication of some better fixes entering the market for the traditionalists energy customers.

I am pleased to see the ratio between gas and electricity prices reducing.

Others as indicated above may take a punt on TOU and beta tariffs which potentially give greater reward as long as you stay on top of market prices.

What_time_is_it

CSI_Yorkshire said:

I could be wrong, but I thought the OP was asking what we thought would happen - not asking for advice on how to read the CI figures.

I think that Q4 is about right, Q1 and Q2 are underestimates and Q3 is an overestimate.

More interest will come in fixes of various flavours. 

Yep, I'm basically getting a feel for what people expect to happen.
Q1 is the big one of course as it's when most of us use the most energy. A big increase in gas prices for that quarter will be very painful for many.
Thanks.

Scot_39

7.6p in Q1 is still a lot lower than the c10.3p average under EPG last winter.

Gas users are benefitting far more than electric - gas down over 1/4 cf last winter - electric around 1/10th  (and CI predicting it's SC going up another 7p in Apr 24) - which of course all electric and duel fuel users pay.

Nearly 80% in the drop between EPG £2500 and current £2074 cap - is the gas unit rates at he old 12,000 kWh TDCV.  And the total - not much more than covers the loss of the £400 EBSS.

As a low user and all electric - the loss of the £400 EBSS discount - far outweights the much smaller cut in my annual energy use costs when priceds as predicted at the above sort of levels.

spot1034

What_time_is_it said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

I could be wrong, but I thought the OP was asking what we thought would happen - not asking for advice on how to read the CI figures.

I think that Q4 is about right, Q1 and Q2 are underestimates and Q3 is an overestimate.

More interest will come in fixes of various flavours. 

Yep, I'm basically getting a feel for what people expect to happen.
Q1 is the big one of course as it's when most of us use the most energy. A big increase in gas prices for that quarter will be very painful for many.
Thanks.

The assessment period for the price cap from January to March begins pretty much this week or next, does it not?  Wholesale prices for that period have risen significantly in the past couple of weeks, and if these prices are sustained it would be logical to assume that the last CI prediction will turn out to be a little on the low side, as it was presumably set using prices before the rise due to fears of strikes in Australia. I notice that prices are climbing again today.

What_time_is_it

spot1034 said:

What_time_is_it said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

I could be wrong, but I thought the OP was asking what we thought would happen - not asking for advice on how to read the CI figures.

I think that Q4 is about right, Q1 and Q2 are underestimates and Q3 is an overestimate.

More interest will come in fixes of various flavours. 

Yep, I'm basically getting a feel for what people expect to happen.
Q1 is the big one of course as it's when most of us use the most energy. A big increase in gas prices for that quarter will be very painful for many.
Thanks.

The assessment period for the price cap from January to March begins pretty much this week or next, does it not?  Wholesale prices for that period have risen significantly in the past couple of weeks, and if these prices are sustained it would be logical to assume that the last CI prediction will turn out to be a little on the low side, as it was presumably set using prices before the rise due to fears of strikes in Australia. I notice that prices are climbing again today.

That's my thinking too. I'm currently weighing up an offer of a 12 month fix from my current supplier set at just below the current price cap. Looks to me like this will probably end up being cheaper over the next 2 (winter) quarters. Q1 is always the most important one for me as it's when the most gas gets used.

molerat

New CI predictions out.  Slight increase on previous for Oct, still down though,  but a noticeable rise for Jan back to where we are now.

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66542340