Latest price predictions

CSI_Yorkshire

Qyburn said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

OFGEM use the BEIS (or whatever that department is called this week) sub-national consumption figures as the bulk of their input data:

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/sub-national-electricity-consumption-data

The method and initial calculations are described in this document:

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-02/TDCV 2023_Call for Input.pdf

Broadly speaking, they note the lower-quartile, median and upper-quartile figures from the collected data in the two observation years, and then take the average of each pair to create the base table.

Some sensitivity analysis, and a bit of industry comment (there's where the politics come in), gives the final figures.

Weirdly, the 'benchmark consumption' (the one used for the price cap) is still at 3100kWh electric - they decided not to change it because there's a concern about "recovering sufficient revenue" at lower figures because the mean and median are 'the wrong way around'.

The very first link states UK mean domestic consumption in 2021 was 3509kWh.

I wonder if part of the trouble is that they keep saying "mean" but actually mean "median".

As I said, it is median for TDCV but, because the mean is higher, is still 3100 for the price cap benchmark user.

Altior

CSI_Yorkshire said:

Altior said:

All they really need to know is how the cost of a unit is changing ( petrol per litre ) and the fixed cost / standing charge (VED). 

Which would work fine if there weren't 48 versions of each figure.  At that point, using an average or typical is more understandable than quoting a large table.

No, just the median needed in my view. Obviously people pay different prices at the pump, supplier retailer and region dependent. But they would know what it meant if it was published that the average (median) price per litre in England for the last three months was say £1.50. They aren't stupid and know that it might be more in Richmond in London than Richmond in Yorkshire. Anorak types like myself could dig into the minutiae. 

Even now I would say that there are plenty of people who don't know how their domestic fuel bill is calculated, what the standing charge is, why they might carry a credit balance etc. I'm quite switched on but I was unaware of an arbitrary TDCV. Anything arbitrary can be manipulated (doesn't mean that it is, but it could be). 

CSI_Yorkshire

Can't fault that suggestion too much.

molerat

New CI prediction out including Q2 2024

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

The big change is +7p on electric SC from April 24 along with -2p on unit cost.

Gas staying pretty much as now.