Latest price predictions

Mstty

For those considering fixes here is the latest crystal ball

NorfolkCanary

Don't suppose someone has the Jul-Sept 2023 p/a estimate for comparison ?

dealyboy

Looks like people should weigh up very carefully whether to go for fixes at the moment which are slightly higher than July SVT rates. Just my view.

Scot_39

Except their not - one poster estimated £30pa cheaper on EOn loyalty V4 - iirc around £20 of that was the electric SC - 6p lower. For a low user - that's a real saving - and it's a free to get out of fix - so if Oct is cheaper - swap to SVT or their loyalty v5 or whatever (they seem to be updating it every few weeks) - no fee with EOn.

Scot_39

So now even Ofgem are at the "shrinkflation" game. Just as well they produce the unit rates as well to give a fairer comparison.

QrizB

Clickable link to the Cornwall Insight press release:

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/average-price-cap-forecasts-fall-as-ofgem-revises-definition-of-typical-energy-consumption/

There's an important point that isn't clear from the Twitter thread:

The fall in average price cap predictions can be directly attributed to Ofgem’s adjustment of what it defines as the average household’s gas and electricity consumption, known as the Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs). The values are used to provide consumers with an understanding of the expected energy bill for a typical dual-fuel household.

So it isn't that prices have fallen further, it's that the headline cap forecast is for less energy and that inevitably results in a lower total.

Screenshot comparing the two different calculations:

The forecasts on the 15th of June (link) were £1932.59 and £1943.87 on the old TDCVs so this new forecast is actually slightly higher than the previous one.

bristolleedsfan

Scot_39 said:

Except their not - 

Octopus 12 month fixed rate is  slightly higher than July SVT rates with exit fees applying to tariff changes

CSI_Yorkshire

Scot_39 said:

Except their not - one poster estimated £30pa cheaper on EOn loyalty V4 - iirc around £20 of that was the electric SC - 6p lower. For a low user - that's a real saving - and it's a free to get out of fix - so if Oct is cheaper - swap to SVT or their loyalty v5 or whatever (they seem to be updating it every few weeks) - no fee with EOn.

What's wrong with what dealyboy said?

If you are offered a fix which is higher than July SVT you should think carefully.  You might think carefully and decide to take it, you might think carefully and decide not.

Nothing controversial there!

Scot_39

Sorry misread it - focused on fixes higher - not fixes which are higher.

Sorry @dealyboy

dealyboy

@Qrizb said:

Clickable link to the Cornwall Insight press release:

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/average-price-cap-forecasts-fall-as-ofgem-revises-definition-of-typical-energy-consumption/

There's an important point that isn't clear from the Twitter thread:

The fall in average price cap predictions can be directly attributed to Ofgem’s adjustment of what it defines as the average household’s gas and electricity consumption, known as the Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs). The values are used to provide consumers with an understanding of the expected energy bill for a typical dual-fuel household.

So it isn't that prices have fallen further, it's that the headline cap forecast is for less energy and that inevitably results in a lower total.

Screenshot comparing the two different calculations:

The forecasts on the 15th of June (link) were £1932.59 and £1943.87 on the old TDCVs so this new forecast is actually slightly higher than the previous one.

Point well made and emphasized.

I did notice this reduction in the TDCVs from the OP and what I have found is that it's easy to trip up on making pronouncements.

My comment fixed vs. variable was looking at Cornwall Insight's UC and SC. I have seen July SVT UC electricity rates at around 29p and fixed at about 30p (from memory).

molerat

I think they have messed up on those unit price predictions.  The only way I can reconcile the unit prices is by using the new 2700 / 11500 annual consumption amounts and dividing it by the old  2900 / 12000.  Dividing the totals by the new TDCV gives me 6.84 / 7.25 for gas and 29.56 / 28.92 for electric.