Is it really quiet for new listings?

lookstraightahead

GDB2222 said:

This thread has been valuable for me, as it is the first time I’ve seen WIBNIF mentioned.

Actually me too! 

Sunsaru

lookstraightahead said:

GDB2222 said:

This thread has been valuable for me, as it is the first time I’ve seen WIBNIF mentioned.

Actually me too! 

At first glance I thought it was Women In Business with a few extra letters.....

MobileSaver

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MobileSaver said:

I'm sure most are like me and put almost everything on a credit card but also like me I'm sure many pay the full balance off every month. Do you really think loads of people who are finding money is tight are still going out and spending £30 on lunch for two?!?!

I didn't take that much interest in the mezzanine traders but from memory the ones we did stop at were in the main being paid in actual paper cash...

There is absolutely no way to know how strangers in a dining area run their credit card, or how many times they go out to spend money,

Of course you can't actually know but you can make educated guesses based on freely available stats.

The majority of people (something like two thirds, 66%) do not pay any interest on their credit card, either because they pay it off in full every month or have a zero percent promotion.

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

Of course but what is pretty much certain is that neither the Ideal Home show, the trader's stalls or the garden centre restaurants are selling anything that is essential - the point is that it's almost all discretionary WIBNIF stuff and people are still buying it however they are paying for it... many people's financial situation is nowhere near as dire as you would like it to be.

I don't think you would get a doctorate with your research methods tbf 🤓.

I don't think you need a doctorate to work out that fully booked restaurants being indicative of "money is tight" is a rather flawed hypothesis!

It actually tells us nothing except that people who go to the ideal home exhibition eat their dinner in a restaurant. It's a massive case of selection bias. 

This was a continuation of earlier posts of my own recent personal experiences; not just one but numerous fully booked restaurants, fully booked hotels and standing-room-only off-peak trains.

If you and @Sarah1Mitty2 want to convince yourselves that such observations somehow demonstrate many of those people are finding money is tight then knock yourself out but for me it's one of the more bizarre theories I've seen on this site!

housebuyer143

MobileSaver said:

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MobileSaver said:

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

EssexHebridean said:

GDB2222 said:

In previous years I’ve seen free entry to the show. Was that available this year?

 I live in London, and the only travel cost is the Underground ticket. 

Yes - through MSE for a start, but there are always masses of options for free tickets. We've been a number of times - and have never parted with any cash for a ticket! 

So looks like it could be a cheap day out, much cheaper than I thought.

Yeah, £46 for lunch for two, £20 for drinks, £18 for the train, £8.50 for parking at the station plus perhaps £20, £40 or £50 that loads of people were handing over to the traders in the mezzanine stalls - that's definitely a sign that money was tight for all those show goers!

Scarily, I was actually thinking of you yesterday Crashy. We popped over the border again to a different garden centre for lunch... just for you I made a point of counting the tables, shortly after noon all 30 tables were occupied with a mix of grandparents and yummy mummies with kids having lunch and there was still a queue at the tills... the cost of living crisis is really hitting hard in Herefordshire!

Why do you assume people actually have money to spend when they spend it? I would say quite a few were using credit. 

I'm sure most are like me and put almost everything on a credit card but also like me I'm sure many pay the full balance off every month. Do you really think loads of people who are finding money is tight are still going out and spending £30 on lunch for two?!?!

I didn't take that much interest in the mezzanine traders but from memory the ones we did stop at were in the main being paid in actual paper cash...

There is absolutely no way to know how strangers in a dining area run their credit card, or how many times they go out to spend money,

Of course but what is pretty much certain is that neither the Ideal Home show, the trader's stalls or the garden centre restaurants are selling anything that is essential - the point is that it's almost all discretionary WIBNIF stuff and people are still buying it however they are paying for it... many people's financial situation is nowhere near as dire as you would like it to be.

I don't think you would get a doctorate with your research methods tbf 🤓.

I don't think you need a doctorate to work out that fully booked restaurants being indicative of "money is tight" is a rather flawed hypothesis!

I personally have never seen restaurants so busy. I routinely go out at lunch to be ask have I booked and they are full, on a Wednesday at 1pm. Places I have never had trouble walking up to and getting a table you now seemingly need to book to get a space.
This is only in the last year I have really noticed this. 

lookstraightahead

MobileSaver said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MobileSaver said:

I'm sure most are like me and put almost everything on a credit card but also like me I'm sure many pay the full balance off every month. Do you really think loads of people who are finding money is tight are still going out and spending £30 on lunch for two?!?!

I didn't take that much interest in the mezzanine traders but from memory the ones we did stop at were in the main being paid in actual paper cash...

There is absolutely no way to know how strangers in a dining area run their credit card, or how many times they go out to spend money,

Of course you can't actually know but you can make educated guesses based on freely available stats.

The majority of people (something like two thirds, 66%) do not pay any interest on their credit card, either because they pay it off in full every month or have a zero percent promotion.

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

Of course but what is pretty much certain is that neither the Ideal Home show, the trader's stalls or the garden centre restaurants are selling anything that is essential - the point is that it's almost all discretionary WIBNIF stuff and people are still buying it however they are paying for it... many people's financial situation is nowhere near as dire as you would like it to be.

I don't think you would get a doctorate with your research methods tbf 🤓.

I don't think you need a doctorate to work out that fully booked restaurants being indicative of "money is tight" is a rather flawed hypothesis!

It actually tells us nothing except that people who go to the ideal home exhibition eat their dinner in a restaurant. It's a massive case of selection bias. 

This was a continuation of earlier posts of my own recent personal experiences; not just one but numerous fully booked restaurants, fully booked hotels and standing-room-only off-peak trains.

If you and @Sarah1Mitty2 want to convince yourselves that such observations somehow demonstrate many of those people are finding money is tight then knock yourself out but for me it's one of the more bizarre theories I've seen on this site!

It's my observations too - packed trains, busy restaurants. Sold out comedy performances. 
It doesn't tell me much at all about the housing market though. 

And you know that it's not that I think it proves money is tight, it's that it doesn't prove it isn't.
Which brings me back to your extremely flawed research methods. 

Sarah1Mitty2

GDB2222 said:

Incidentally, higher interest rates impact people looking to purchase homes, as their ability to borrow is significantly reduced. That’s rather different than whether they can afford lunch out.

Exactly, and that is all that really matters in connection with how many listings there are and how many actually sell.

Sarah1Mitty2

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MobileSaver said:

I'm sure most are like me and put almost everything on a credit card but also like me I'm sure many pay the full balance off every month. Do you really think loads of people who are finding money is tight are still going out and spending £30 on lunch for two?!?!

I didn't take that much interest in the mezzanine traders but from memory the ones we did stop at were in the main being paid in actual paper cash...

There is absolutely no way to know how strangers in a dining area run their credit card, or how many times they go out to spend money,

Of course you can't actually know but you can make educated guesses based on freely available stats.

The majority of people (something like two thirds, 66%) do not pay any interest on their credit card, either because they pay it off in full every month or have a zero percent promotion.

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

Of course but what is pretty much certain is that neither the Ideal Home show, the trader's stalls or the garden centre restaurants are selling anything that is essential - the point is that it's almost all discretionary WIBNIF stuff and people are still buying it however they are paying for it... many people's financial situation is nowhere near as dire as you would like it to be.

I don't think you would get a doctorate with your research methods tbf 🤓.

I don't think you need a doctorate to work out that fully booked restaurants being indicative of "money is tight" is a rather flawed hypothesis!

It actually tells us nothing except that people who go to the ideal home exhibition eat their dinner in a restaurant. It's a massive case of selection bias. 

This was a continuation of earlier posts of my own recent personal experiences; not just one but numerous fully booked restaurants, fully booked hotels and standing-room-only off-peak trains.

If you and @Sarah1Mitty2 want to convince yourselves that such observations somehow demonstrate many of those people are finding money is tight then knock yourself out but for me it's one of the more bizarre theories I've seen on this site!

It's my observations too - packed trains, busy restaurants. Sold out comedy performances. 
It doesn't tell me much at all about the housing market though. 

And you know that it's not that I think it proves money is tight, it's that it doesn't prove it isn't.
Which brings me back to your extremely flawed research methods. 

My observation is that if you travel off peak trains are more or less empty, and the further you get from cities the pubs and eating places are too, the likes of McDonalds drive thru`s get busy as people are addicted to the taste or the experience or something.

ArbitraryRandom

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MobileSaver said:

I'm sure most are like me and put almost everything on a credit card but also like me I'm sure many pay the full balance off every month. Do you really think loads of people who are finding money is tight are still going out and spending £30 on lunch for two?!?!

I didn't take that much interest in the mezzanine traders but from memory the ones we did stop at were in the main being paid in actual paper cash...

There is absolutely no way to know how strangers in a dining area run their credit card, or how many times they go out to spend money,

Of course you can't actually know but you can make educated guesses based on freely available stats.

The majority of people (something like two thirds, 66%) do not pay any interest on their credit card, either because they pay it off in full every month or have a zero percent promotion.

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

lookstraightahead said:

MobileSaver said:

Of course but what is pretty much certain is that neither the Ideal Home show, the trader's stalls or the garden centre restaurants are selling anything that is essential - the point is that it's almost all discretionary WIBNIF stuff and people are still buying it however they are paying for it... many people's financial situation is nowhere near as dire as you would like it to be.

I don't think you would get a doctorate with your research methods tbf 🤓.

I don't think you need a doctorate to work out that fully booked restaurants being indicative of "money is tight" is a rather flawed hypothesis!

It actually tells us nothing except that people who go to the ideal home exhibition eat their dinner in a restaurant. It's a massive case of selection bias. 

This was a continuation of earlier posts of my own recent personal experiences; not just one but numerous fully booked restaurants, fully booked hotels and standing-room-only off-peak trains.

If you and @Sarah1Mitty2 want to convince yourselves that such observations somehow demonstrate many of those people are finding money is tight then knock yourself out but for me it's one of the more bizarre theories I've seen on this site!

It's my observations too - packed trains, busy restaurants. Sold out comedy performances. 
It doesn't tell me much at all about the housing market though. 

And you know that it's not that I think it proves money is tight, it's that it doesn't prove it isn't.
Which brings me back to your extremely flawed research methods. 

It might suggest something about the the consensus attitude of a portion of consumers (at least in a geographic area) as to whether they are better off spending or saving - which is at least interesting to contrast with those who use just as flimsy 'evidence' to argue the whole economic system is on the verge of collapse. 

I have to travel reasonably regularly for work and I've also noticed hotels and restaurants being busier than I would have expected (pre-pandemic) for the time of year, and I have no way of knowing but the people I'm seeing don't look like they're traveling on business (family groups or couples).

It's not evidence of anything, but it does contrast with my recollections of 2008 when I had the impression more people were cutting back because they didn't know how bad things were going to get (or had been made redundant), suggesting rather than proving maybe people are feeling 'crisis fatigue' or don't believe things are all that bad.   

smipsy

North West, where my RightMove is set to, has had a noticeable uptick in properties that looked like a rush, however on closer inspection the majority of it were reductions, which then put the property on top again, or actually relists of properties that failed to sell from autumn/winter.

The actual number of genuine new listings appears quite low, comparably

Sarah1Mitty2

smipsy said:

North West, where my RightMove is set to, has had a noticeable uptick in properties that looked like a rush, however on closer inspection the majority of it were reductions, which then put the property on top again, or actually relists of properties that failed to sell from autumn/winter.

The actual number of genuine new listings appears quite low, comparably

Demand must have dropped quite a bit?