Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

lojo1000

MeteredOut said:

lojo1000 said:

Actually, i should add i am not a financial advisor, i do not know your financial situation and therefore do not take my advice.

Clearly. No financial advisor would be so readily conflating gold and bitcoin into the same risk category.

Maybe you are a trader as opposed to investor?

MobileSaver

lojo1000 said:

I class Bitcoin ... as low risk

i am not a financial advisor ... do not take my advice

I can confidently say that few, if any, people here were at risk of doing that.

jobbywobbler

lojo1000 said:

Why do you advocate a cut and also argue for stability?  Why not leave rates where they are now for stability?

It aint just the man on the street borrows money, kinda affect businesses as well as paying back the national debt.   Couple this with employers NI Contributions, all the very best in the years ahead.   This will force start-ups into other jurisdications where these challenges are lesser.

RelievedSheff

Inflation up to 2.6%. It's hard to see any reason why rates should be lowered tomorrow!

lojo1000

jobbywobbler said:

lojo1000 said:

Why do you advocate a cut and also argue for stability?  Why not leave rates where they are now for stability?

It aint just the man on the street borrows money, kinda affect businesses as well as paying back the national debt.   Couple this with employers NI Contributions, all the very best in the years ahead.   This will force start-ups into other jurisdications where these challenges are lesser.

Are you saying that you think they should cut rates to increase demand from consumers and business and make govt debt cheaper?

And what level do you think rates should be and should they be held there or moved up and down?

lojo1000

RelievedSheff said:

Inflation up to 2.6%. It's hard to see any reason why rates should be lowered tomorrow!

For sure the trend is down and MoM inflation is very low.

Markets have 2 cuts priced in for 2025.

The error the BoE is making is promising cuts when productivity is zero. Most of the new money will go into non-productive assets.

At this stage no major govt is planning on giving money to working classes and hence general inflation will likely continue to fall whilst asset inflation increases. 

So if they keep cutting, asset prices will continue to rise and make the country even less productive.

jobbywobbler

lojo1000 said:

jobbywobbler said:

lojo1000 said:

Why do you advocate a cut and also argue for stability?  Why not leave rates where they are now for stability?

It aint just the man on the street borrows money, kinda affect businesses as well as paying back the national debt.   Couple this with employers NI Contributions, all the very best in the years ahead.   This will force start-ups into other jurisdications where these challenges are lesser.

Are you saying that you think they should cut rates to increase demand from consumers and business and make govt debt cheaper?

And what level do you think rates should be and should they be held there or moved up and down?

3% / 3.25% - Done   Give people/businesses certainty and give growth a chance

ReadySteadyPop

lojo1000 said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

I think they will hold rates in December.

I think they will cut in anticipation of problems from U.S tariffs, but will be forced to raise again at some point next year, there is likely to be market volatility which will push mortgage rates up anyway in my opinion.

Interesting, often the quick thought is that tariffs raise prices and hence are inflationary. But, of course, it could lead to job losses, lack of confidence and have a deflationary impact.

We don't know what will happen and what decisions will be made by all the vested interests. 

I think the global economy stagnates unless there is a strong infusion of debt from somewhere/everywhere. With yields rising in Japan, US and now across Europe, that does not seem likely.

Not sure what Bailey, et al do in the meantime but I know it will have no material impact on the longer term. They should retire the MPC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stock-market-today-dow-drops-1123-points-and-bond-yields-soar-as-markets-adjust-rate-outlook-after-fed-meeting/ar-AA1w74i6

lojo1000

jobbywobbler said:

lojo1000 said:

jobbywobbler said:

lojo1000 said:

Why do you advocate a cut and also argue for stability?  Why not leave rates where they are now for stability?

It aint just the man on the street borrows money, kinda affect businesses as well as paying back the national debt.   Couple this with employers NI Contributions, all the very best in the years ahead.   This will force start-ups into other jurisdications where these challenges are lesser.

Are you saying that you think they should cut rates to increase demand from consumers and business and make govt debt cheaper?

And what level do you think rates should be and should they be held there or moved up and down?

3% / 3.25% - Done   Give people/businesses certainty and give growth a chance

Why not 2% and done?

lojo1000

ReadySteadyPop said:

lojo1000 said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

I think they will hold rates in December.

I think they will cut in anticipation of problems from U.S tariffs, but will be forced to raise again at some point next year, there is likely to be market volatility which will push mortgage rates up anyway in my opinion.

Interesting, often the quick thought is that tariffs raise prices and hence are inflationary. But, of course, it could lead to job losses, lack of confidence and have a deflationary impact.

We don't know what will happen and what decisions will be made by all the vested interests. 

I think the global economy stagnates unless there is a strong infusion of debt from somewhere/everywhere. With yields rising in Japan, US and now across Europe, that does not seem likely.

Not sure what Bailey, et al do in the meantime but I know it will have no material impact on the longer term. They should retire the MPC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stock-market-today-dow-drops-1123-points-and-bond-yields-soar-as-markets-adjust-rate-outlook-after-fed-meeting/ar-AA1w74i6

So the Fed cut 25bps as expected but gave a hawkish statement - unexpected - and cut their forecast of future cuts from 100bps to 50bps in 2025.

I expect the BoE will follow with similar rhetoric though UK has considerable growth concerns making the situation in the UK more dire.

As i've been banging on about for a long time now, cutting rates with record low unemployment just creates speculative demand - CBs may now be admitting this. Just look at the positive real wage growth to see there is not enough labour slack to cut rates.

I think the Fed is now seeing this clear enough they can no longer ignore it.

This change in the path by the Fed however will add to the deflationary factors.

"If the Fed is no longer going to support the speculative asset bubble then risk has just increased......cut risk".

Subject to what the Trump govt does, I expect growth to begin to fall in 2025. Trump will try and cut taxes whilst promoting his cost cutting (DOGE) agenda. I see the deficit continuing to rise and yields also rising due to concerns over the deficit meaning further contraction.

In 2025 the Fed will need to increase the easing path again as growth and inflation slows. But the same result will occur (unless they wait for unemployment to get over 6-7%) and asset prices will rise even faster as markets know the Fed will need to cut even faster now - and potentially go back to QE.