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Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?
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Continued weak numbers out of European manufacturing today, including UK.
Currently there are plenty of jobs, unemployment is low. So, why is manufacturing weak?
When productivity is low and central banks are cutting rates and promising more cuts, what are you going to do?
Your best return comes from investing in low-risk assets - gold, bitcoin, even property with its govt backed guarantees.
That just means any increase in money supply goes to assets and supply is constrained. That lowers business investment in improving supply chains and lowers the chance of improving productivity.
Central banks are working against the best outcome for the economy.
Central banks are myopic and the decision makers only care about their legacy which is near term. They cut rates to encourage people/business into debt to increase the money supply and create monetary demand.
Unfortunately for central banks, people are cleverer than they give them credit for. People see the future and are investing rather than consuming.
To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
Bitcoin is not remotely a low-risk asset - it's probably one of the riskiest gambles anyone could take.lojo1000 said:Your best return comes from investing in low-risk assets - gold, bitcoin, even property with its govt backed guarantees.
Every generation blames the one before...
Mike + The Mechanics - The Living Years0 -
There's plenty to read on the BOE website. That generally gets ignored other than in the serious press.lojo1000 said:
Sounds like something the MPC would say.Hoenir said:
Fulfill their mandates of reducing inflation and maintaining financial stability. They are looking constantly into the future. Months in advance. As interest rate changes take 18 months to impact the real economy. Far removed from the news headlines that dominate the discussion on social media.lojo1000 said:ReadySteadyPop said:
I think they will cut in anticipation of problems from U.S tariffs, but will be forced to raise again at some point next year, there is likely to be market volatility which will push mortgage rates up anyway in my opinion.RelievedSheff said:I think they will hold rates in December.
Not sure what Bailey, et al do in the meantime but I know it will have no material impact on the longer term. They should retire the MPC.0 -
Do you mean it is volatile?MobileSaver said:
Bitcoin is not remotely a low-risk asset - it's probably one of the riskiest gambles anyone could take.lojo1000 said:Your best return comes from investing in low-risk assets - gold, bitcoin, even property with its govt backed guarantees.To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
Looks like no BoE rate cut this week as they are faced with the ramification of cutting rates with near record low unemployment and inflation above target. I guess that's why they're paid the big bucks.To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
I think they have to - needs to come in tandem with US, there is a wrecking ball coming soon - unemployment will rise (unless you 'retire' early), pure stubborn'ness comes to mind of the BoE - they could play with numbers (like the 20hr week people). The idiot in Number 11 really has scared most of not all of uK employers, I have been given some scary figures of the cost to my firm, meaning day rates go up and recruitment contracts at the very least (could be redundancies in a number of places/firms). What employers want is certainty to plan ahead and forecast, never mind grow (provide growth).
I have a fair amount of savings, so they will suffer but also have mortgages, so it's a catch 22. Thinking to clear one end of 2025.
I put her and Truss in same category with the clowns in the BoE flip flopping about, recipe for disaster if you ask me.0 -
Are you a bot?jobbywobbler said:I think they have to - needs to come in tandem with US, there is a wrecking ball coming soon - unemployment will rise (unless you 'retire' early), pure stubborn'ness comes to mind of the BoE - they could play with numbers (like the 20hr week people). The idiot in Number 11 really has scared most of not all of uK employers, I have been given some scary figures of the cost to my firm, meaning day rates go up and recruitment contracts at the very least (could be redundancies in a number of places/firms). What employers want is certainty to plan ahead and forecast, never mind grow (provide growth).
I have a fair amount of savings, so they will suffer but also have mortgages, so it's a catch 22. Mine clear one end of 2025.
I put her and Truss in same category with the clowns in the BoE flip flopping about, recipe for disaster if you ask me.To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
What's a bot? as in a robot? Just making a guess that he/they will do nought when they should cut.0
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Cut for a short term boost to demand or long term prosperity? What's the economic argument for a cut? I'm not sure I understand.To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
Nice to hear some common sense for once.
Economists and policy experts warn Reeves against City deregulation https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/16/economists-policy-experts-warn-rachel-reeves-city-deregulation?CMP=share_btn_urlTo solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0
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