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Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

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  • lojo1000 said:
    Cut for a short term boost to demand or long term prosperity? What's the economic argument for a cut? I'm not sure I understand.
    long term prosperity - that is a pipe dream, its all short term nowadays - greed and get to the next Qtr.    I do believe rates need to be kept at a level (between 2-3%), stability is what is needed then the idea of people and the country feeling richer and a bit more positive.
  • Why do you advocate a cut and also argue for stability?  Why not leave rates where they are now for stability?
    To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.

    Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.

    No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.
  • penners324
    penners324 Posts: 3,511 Forumite
    Sixth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    lojo1000 said:
    I think they have to - needs to come in tandem with US, there is a wrecking ball coming soon - unemployment will rise (unless you 'retire' early), pure stubborn'ness comes to mind of the BoE - they could play with numbers (like the 20hr week people).    The idiot in Number 11 really has scared most of not all of uK employers, I have been given some scary figures of the cost to my firm, meaning day rates go up and recruitment contracts at the very least (could be redundancies in a number of places/firms).   What employers want is certainty to plan ahead and forecast, never mind grow (provide growth).

    I have a fair amount of savings, so they will suffer but also have mortgages, so it's a catch 22.  Mine clear one end of 2025.

    I put her and Truss in same category with the clowns in the BoE flip flopping about, recipe for disaster if you ask me.
    Are you a bot?
    Was wondering the same about you with your statement about bitcoin. Anything else you've posted after that lost any credibility 
  • lojo1000 said:
    I think they have to - needs to come in tandem with US, there is a wrecking ball coming soon - unemployment will rise (unless you 'retire' early), pure stubborn'ness comes to mind of the BoE - they could play with numbers (like the 20hr week people).    The idiot in Number 11 really has scared most of not all of uK employers, I have been given some scary figures of the cost to my firm, meaning day rates go up and recruitment contracts at the very least (could be redundancies in a number of places/firms).   What employers want is certainty to plan ahead and forecast, never mind grow (provide growth).

    I have a fair amount of savings, so they will suffer but also have mortgages, so it's a catch 22.  Mine clear one end of 2025.

    I put her and Truss in same category with the clowns in the BoE flip flopping about, recipe for disaster if you ask me.
    Are you a bot?
    Was wondering the same about you with your statement about bitcoin. Anything else you've posted after that lost any credibility 
    Risk is dependent on volatility and % holding. You do not need to hold large amounts of a volatile asset.

    You can define risk as volatility alone if you wish. Most people do at the simplest level.

    I class Bitcoin and gold as low risk as my timeframe is higher than 1 year. These assets will prosper due to govts/CBs need to expand the money supply at a constant rate which means an exponential increase in money supply.
    To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.

    Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.

    No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.
  • 1. This chart no better than any other will tell you where general inflation is headed. Just look at history.
    2. The lead time might vary but is 1-2 years roughly dependent on what else is happening in the economy.
    3. The UK has zero productivity as the majority of risk is held in property (very little in business assets)
    4. This means the CB and govt cannot let property fall in price by a meaningful amount.
    5. To achieve this they must keep mortgage demand high by whatever means.
    6. This means banks must increase lending and the money supply must grow.
    7. Ergo, invest in assets which do not rely on incomes = bitcoin, gold.
    8. As incomes are rising below the rate of money supply expansion, income are falling in relative terms and asset prices which do not rely on incomes will increase faster than those that do (e.g. equities, properrty).


    To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.

    Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.

    No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.
  • Today's UK employment data......

    A weakening employment picture as productivity gains, which were easy post covid, revert to zero.

    Wages continue to gain, inflation is above target and unemployment is near historic lows and what is the CB doing?

    The CB is promising more rate cuts in 2025.

    Have you ever taken the time to wonder why they are prioritising expanding the money supply over the risk of inflation rising?


    To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.

    Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.

    No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.
  • lojo1000
    lojo1000 Posts: 288 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 100 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    edited 17 December 2024 at 10:39AM
    lojo1000 said:
    1. This chart no better than any other will tell you where general inflation is headed. Just look at history.
    2. The lead time might vary but is 1-2 years roughly dependent on what else is happening in the economy.
    3. The UK has zero productivity as the majority of risk is held in property (very little in business assets)
    4. This means the CB and govt cannot let property fall in price by a meaningful amount.
    5. To achieve this they must keep mortgage demand high by whatever means.
    6. This means banks must increase lending and the money supply must grow.
    7. Ergo, invest in assets which do not rely on incomes = bitcoin, gold.
    8. As incomes are rising below the rate of money supply expansion, income are falling in relative terms and asset prices which do not rely on incomes will increase faster than those that do (e.g. equities, properrty).


    Just to add, if you are in the UK invest in bitcoin and gold in GBP term not USD. You want to be short GBP vs these assets, not short the USD.

    I am not selling anything by the way and clearly whatever you do is not going to impact the price of bitcoin, gold or GBP!

    Actually, i should add i am not a financial advisor, i do not know your financial situation and therefore do not take my advice.
    To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.

    Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.

    No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.
  • MeteredOut
    MeteredOut Posts: 3,063 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Second Anniversary Name Dropper
    lojo1000 said:


    Actually, i should add i am not a financial advisor, i do not know your financial situation and therefore do not take my advice.
    Clearly. No financial advisor would be so readily conflating gold and bitcoin into the same risk category.
  • lojo1000 said:


    Actually, i should add i am not a financial advisor, i do not know your financial situation and therefore do not take my advice.
    Clearly. No financial advisor would be so readily conflating gold and bitcoin into the same risk category.
    Why........?
    To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.

    Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.

    No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.
  • lojo1000 said:
    lojo1000 said:


    Actually, i should add i am not a financial advisor, i do not know your financial situation and therefore do not take my advice.
    Clearly. No financial advisor would be so readily conflating gold and bitcoin into the same risk category.
    Why........?
    A chart comparing the price.


    To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.

    Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.

    No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.
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