Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

RelievedSheff

ReadySteadyPop said:

Hoenir said:

BarelySentientAI said:

It's just you.

We want to see the evidence more clearly before making a decision is a legitimate stance.

Borrowers are only interested in today while the BOE focusses on the future. Very different perspectives at work. 

New borrowers will probably defer their decisions into the future, to give higher rates time to do their job.

Or they will just get on with their lives and not try to time the market.

After all that has been proven to be a mugs game.

RelievedSheff

Figures today show that the UK economy grew 0.6% between January and March which brings us out of the shallowest of technical recessions.

Puts less pressure on the BOE to drop rates.

lojo1000

Bailey, et al displaying no intellectual knowledge above any one person on this forum yesterday. BoE should have no role in monetary policy. 

Just leave base rates at 5% forever and let the market do the rest.

No change in yields following yesterday's pointless meeting so those talking about a June cut are p*ssing in the wind on the current outlook.

lojo1000

Literally just talking about future rates cuts has been enough to stimulate markets and keep employment high. There is literally no need to cut rates.

As the next meeting comes into view, it becomes clear that cutting rates when employment is so strong would be a mistake so the market prices out the chance of a cut as the meeting approaches.

Then at the meeting, the BoE talks again about the next cut and everyone wets themselves again over the prospect of a cut.

The perfect economy where speculators get deeper into debt in the belief that rate cuts are coming.

naf123

lojo1000 said:

Literally just talking about future rates cuts has been enough to stimulate markets and keep employment high. There is literally no need to cut rates.

As the next meeting comes into view, it becomes clear that cutting rates when employment is so strong would be a mistake so the market prices out the chance of a cut as the meeting approaches.

Then at the meeting, the BoE talks again about the next cut and everyone wets themselves again over the prospect of a cut.

The perfect economy where speculators get deeper into debt in the belief that rate cuts are coming.

You have a good point. All this talk about rate cuts itself is actually stimulating the economy. It is what the BoE and government wants . An constant "plateau phase" without any intention of ever climaxing.  

sevenhills

RelievedSheff said:

Figures today show that the UK economy grew 0.6% between January and March which brings us out of the shallowest of technical recessions.
Puts less pressure on the BOE to drop rates.

One area of the economy that struggled between January and March was construction. It shrank by 0.9% official figures show, though that is an improvement from a steeper contraction in the last three months of last year.

RelievedSheff

sevenhills said:

RelievedSheff said:

Figures today show that the UK economy grew 0.6% between January and March which brings us out of the shallowest of technical recessions.
Puts less pressure on the BOE to drop rates.

One area of the economy that struggled between January and March was construction. It shrank by 0.9% official figures show, though that is an improvement from a steeper contraction in the last three months of last year.

Not surprising given the weather conditions for the first part of the year.

It's pretty difficult to build on saturated ground.

Construction will bounce back again in the next quarter.

ReadySteadyPop

sevenhills said:

naf123 said:

Interesting how the economy has coped with the increase in rates, e.g mortgage approvals are on the up. In a way high interest rates should weed out unproductive businesses and boost productivity in the economy in general. So I imagine there is no incentive to cut rates again until the next real economic "crisis", 

Therefore going to predict , no cuts until 2025

Surely the political need for an interest rate cut will see another small cut before 2025

Another cut, when was the first one?

ReadySteadyPop

RelievedSheff said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

Hoenir said:

BarelySentientAI said:

It's just you.

We want to see the evidence more clearly before making a decision is a legitimate stance.

Borrowers are only interested in today while the BOE focusses on the future. Very different perspectives at work. 

New borrowers will probably defer their decisions into the future, to give higher rates time to do their job.

Or they will just get on with their lives and not try to time the market.

After all that has been proven to be a mugs game.

 Yes people who thought recent times were a good time to buy have certainly been caught out by the rate rises.The problem for those undecided is the monthly mortgage payment, they can`t move ahead with buying until that drops, of course you could get on with your life living anywhere, you don`t need a mortgage to do that.

RelievedSheff

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

Hoenir said:

BarelySentientAI said:

It's just you.

We want to see the evidence more clearly before making a decision is a legitimate stance.

Borrowers are only interested in today while the BOE focusses on the future. Very different perspectives at work. 

New borrowers will probably defer their decisions into the future, to give higher rates time to do their job.

Or they will just get on with their lives and not try to time the market.

After all that has been proven to be a mugs game.

 Yes people who thought recent times were a good time to buy have certainly been caught out by the rate rises.The problem for those undecided is the monthly mortgage payment, they can`t move ahead with buying until that drops, of course you could get on with your life living anywhere, you don`t need a mortgage to do that.

Where is this evidence that people have been "caught out by the rate rises?"

It certainly doesn't seem to be indicated in any of the statistics publications.