Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

ReadySteadyPop

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

Please don't take this personally, but since exiting the property market a few years ago, you're now starting to sound desperate for a house price crash (not just this post, but the underlying message across most of your posts).

I doubt its going to happen - people will just not move. It's not like 2008 where so many people we overleveraged on their property and had to sell. This time, the affordability rules have ensured that the majority can still cope their mortgage payments and will accept a squeeze elsewhere in their lives rather than selling for below what they perceive is the true value of their house.

Not sure what you mean by that, in the run up to 2008 houses were much cheaper than they are now!

ReadySteadyPop

RelievedSheff said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

I'm not so sure you are right there.

Yes there will be people around the fringes who are struggling or starting to struggle but on the whole I think the vast majority of people are managing just fine with the rate rises.

The percentage of mortgage accounts in arrears is still low which suggests that people are finding ways to balance their budgets.

Lets not forget that not all homeowners have a mortgage. 30% give or take own outright. 

I mean people buying, they have the choice to step away from the market (as they seem to be doing in large numbers) people who already have mortgage debt have no choice but to find the payments, the problem is that they will cut back on spending into the real economy and this is leading to job losses.

naf123

Time to update the thread title! 

MeteredOut

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

Please don't take this personally, but since exiting the property market a few years ago, you're now starting to sound desperate for a house price crash (not just this post, but the underlying message across most of your posts).

I doubt its going to happen - people will just not move. It's not like 2008 where so many people we overleveraged on their property and had to sell. This time, the affordability rules have ensured that the majority can still cope their mortgage payments and will accept a squeeze elsewhere in their lives rather than selling for below what they perceive is the true value of their house.

Not sure what you mean by that, in the run up to 2008 houses were much cheaper than they are now!

Do you know what the current affordability tests are? I'm talking in relative terms. People had mortgages repayments that were not tested against what could be a significant increase in mortgage rates, so when rates went up, they could no longer afford the new monthly payments.

Despite all the media noise around the recent increases in mortgage rates, there is no evidence that is happening to any similar extent today.

Back on subject, I predict no cut in the next announcement.

RelievedSheff

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

I'm not so sure you are right there.

Yes there will be people around the fringes who are struggling or starting to struggle but on the whole I think the vast majority of people are managing just fine with the rate rises.

The percentage of mortgage accounts in arrears is still low which suggests that people are finding ways to balance their budgets.

Lets not forget that not all homeowners have a mortgage. 30% give or take own outright. 

I mean people buying, they have the choice to step away from the market (as they seem to be doing in large numbers) people who already have mortgage debt have no choice but to find the payments, the problem is that they will cut back on spending into the real economy and this is leading to job losses.

Yet despite you repeating this like a broken record there is little evidence to support it.

Mortgage approvals are rising, unemployment stands at just 4.2%, house prices are static and activity in the housing market is on the increase.

There have been massive changes in lending criteria since 2008 to put a stop to the situations that occurred back then. 

RelievedSheff

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

Please don't take this personally, but since exiting the property market a few years ago, you're now starting to sound desperate for a house price crash (not just this post, but the underlying message across most of your posts).

I doubt its going to happen - people will just not move. It's not like 2008 where so many people we overleveraged on their property and had to sell. This time, the affordability rules have ensured that the majority can still cope their mortgage payments and will accept a squeeze elsewhere in their lives rather than selling for below what they perceive is the true value of their house.

Not sure what you mean by that, in the run up to 2008 houses were much cheaper than they are now!

Do you know what the current affordability tests are? I'm talking in relative terms. People had mortgages repayments that were not tested against what could be a significant increase in mortgage rates, so when rates went up, they could no longer afford the new monthly payments.

Despite all the media noise around the recent increases in mortgage rates, there is no evidence that is happening to any similar extent today.

Back on subject, I predict no cut in the next announcement.

I agree. No cut in June.

Although the next two rounds of inflation data between now and then will show a decrease in inflation to below 2%.

I predict a small 0.25% rate cut at the September meeting.

naf123

Interesting how the economy has coped with the increase in rates, e.g mortgage approvals are on the up. In a way high interest rates should weed out unproductive businesses and boost productivity in the economy in general. So I imagine there is no incentive to cut rates again until the next real economic "crisis", 

Therefore going to predict , no cuts until 2025

ReadySteadyPop

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

Please don't take this personally, but since exiting the property market a few years ago, you're now starting to sound desperate for a house price crash (not just this post, but the underlying message across most of your posts).

I doubt its going to happen - people will just not move. It's not like 2008 where so many people we overleveraged on their property and had to sell. This time, the affordability rules have ensured that the majority can still cope their mortgage payments and will accept a squeeze elsewhere in their lives rather than selling for below what they perceive is the true value of their house.

Not sure what you mean by that, in the run up to 2008 houses were much cheaper than they are now!

Do you know what the current affordability tests are? I'm talking in relative terms. People had mortgages repayments that were not tested against what could be a significant increase in mortgage rates, so when rates went up, they could no longer afford the new monthly payments.

Despite all the media noise around the recent increases in mortgage rates, there is no evidence that is happening to any similar extent today.

Back on subject, I predict no cut in the next announcement.

 Sales have dropped considerably, that is where the effects are being seen so far, but it seems obvious that if houses are much more expensive than 2008 but interest rates are about the same that some people are going to struggle? It is the long period in-between 2008 and now, the zero interest rate period, that caused the problems.

ReadySteadyPop

So the BOE press conference; They waffled quite a bit as usual and basically said - The World is Changeable - We might cut rates, but we might also hold them or put them up! LOL, they were even accused of "damaging the economy" by one journalist, he got short shrift though. Not much comfort there I`m afraid if you are carrying heavy debt loads, is is just me or is there an element of relishing these higher borrowing costs in some way coming from Bailey?

BarelySentientAI

It's just you.

We want to see the evidence more clearly before making a decision is a legitimate stance.