Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

Hoenir

BarelySentientAI said:

It's just you.

We want to see the evidence more clearly before making a decision is a legitimate stance.

Borrowers are only interested in today while the BOE focusses on the future. Very different perspectives at work. 

MeteredOut

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

Please don't take this personally, but since exiting the property market a few years ago, you're now starting to sound desperate for a house price crash (not just this post, but the underlying message across most of your posts).

I doubt its going to happen - people will just not move. It's not like 2008 where so many people we overleveraged on their property and had to sell. This time, the affordability rules have ensured that the majority can still cope their mortgage payments and will accept a squeeze elsewhere in their lives rather than selling for below what they perceive is the true value of their house.

Not sure what you mean by that, in the run up to 2008 houses were much cheaper than they are now!

Do you know what the current affordability tests are? I'm talking in relative terms. People had mortgages repayments that were not tested against what could be a significant increase in mortgage rates, so when rates went up, they could no longer afford the new monthly payments.

Despite all the media noise around the recent increases in mortgage rates, there is no evidence that is happening to any similar extent today.

Back on subject, I predict no cut in the next announcement.

 Sales have dropped considerably, that is where the effects are being seen so far, but it seems obvious that if houses are much more expensive than 2008 but interest rates are about the same that some people are going to struggle? It is the long period in-between 2008 and now, the zero interest rate period, that caused the problems.

You weren't talking about sales dropping. You said "People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now."

I pointed out that this is not like 2008. The number of people who will have to sell, or have their homes repossessed will be nothing like what happened then; people will simply not sell their house below what they perceive is its "true value". The vast majority CAN afford the monthly debt payments, but they may have had to make alterations elsewhere in their lives.

No-one is denying sales have dropped, but you're constant insistence that the current rates will result in a house price crashy (see what I did there?) is futile (and, IMO, tedious).

MeteredOut

ReadySteadyPop said:

So the BOE press conference; They waffled quite a bit as usual and basically said - The World is Changeable - We might cut rates, but we might also hold them or put them up! LOL, they were even accused of "damaging the economy" by one journalist, he got short shrift though. Not much comfort there I`m afraid if you are carrying heavy debt loads, is is just me or is there an element of relishing these higher borrowing costs in some way coming from Bailey?

Yep, just you. I suspect the bad financial decision you made a few years ago has tainted your objectivity.

ReadySteadyPop

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

Please don't take this personally, but since exiting the property market a few years ago, you're now starting to sound desperate for a house price crash (not just this post, but the underlying message across most of your posts).

I doubt its going to happen - people will just not move. It's not like 2008 where so many people we overleveraged on their property and had to sell. This time, the affordability rules have ensured that the majority can still cope their mortgage payments and will accept a squeeze elsewhere in their lives rather than selling for below what they perceive is the true value of their house.

Not sure what you mean by that, in the run up to 2008 houses were much cheaper than they are now!

Do you know what the current affordability tests are? I'm talking in relative terms. People had mortgages repayments that were not tested against what could be a significant increase in mortgage rates, so when rates went up, they could no longer afford the new monthly payments.

Despite all the media noise around the recent increases in mortgage rates, there is no evidence that is happening to any similar extent today.

Back on subject, I predict no cut in the next announcement.

 Sales have dropped considerably, that is where the effects are being seen so far, but it seems obvious that if houses are much more expensive than 2008 but interest rates are about the same that some people are going to struggle? It is the long period in-between 2008 and now, the zero interest rate period, that caused the problems.

You weren't talking about sales dropping. You said "People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now."

I pointed out that this is not like 2008. The number of people who will have to sell, or have their homes repossessed will be nothing like what happened then; people will simply not sell their house below what they perceive is its "true value". The vast majority CAN afford the monthly debt payments, but they may have had to make alterations elsewhere in their lives.

No-one is denying sales have dropped, but you're constant insistence that the current rates will result in a house price crashy (see what I did there?) is futile (and, IMO, tedious).

I was talking about new buyers, not people who already have mortgage debt, how would a price cut help them?

ReadySteadyPop

Hoenir said:

BarelySentientAI said:

It's just you.

We want to see the evidence more clearly before making a decision is a legitimate stance.

Borrowers are only interested in today while the BOE focusses on the future. Very different perspectives at work. 

New borrowers will probably defer their decisions into the future, to give higher rates time to do their job.

MeteredOut

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

Please don't take this personally, but since exiting the property market a few years ago, you're now starting to sound desperate for a house price crash (not just this post, but the underlying message across most of your posts).

I doubt its going to happen - people will just not move. It's not like 2008 where so many people we overleveraged on their property and had to sell. This time, the affordability rules have ensured that the majority can still cope their mortgage payments and will accept a squeeze elsewhere in their lives rather than selling for below what they perceive is the true value of their house.

Not sure what you mean by that, in the run up to 2008 houses were much cheaper than they are now!

Do you know what the current affordability tests are? I'm talking in relative terms. People had mortgages repayments that were not tested against what could be a significant increase in mortgage rates, so when rates went up, they could no longer afford the new monthly payments.

Despite all the media noise around the recent increases in mortgage rates, there is no evidence that is happening to any similar extent today.

Back on subject, I predict no cut in the next announcement.

 Sales have dropped considerably, that is where the effects are being seen so far, but it seems obvious that if houses are much more expensive than 2008 but interest rates are about the same that some people are going to struggle? It is the long period in-between 2008 and now, the zero interest rate period, that caused the problems.

You weren't talking about sales dropping. You said "People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now."

I pointed out that this is not like 2008. The number of people who will have to sell, or have their homes repossessed will be nothing like what happened then; people will simply not sell their house below what they perceive is its "true value". The vast majority CAN afford the monthly debt payments, but they may have had to make alterations elsewhere in their lives.

No-one is denying sales have dropped, but you're constant insistence that the current rates will result in a house price crashy (see what I did there?) is futile (and, IMO, tedious).

I was talking about new buyers, not people who already have mortgage debt, how would a price cut help them?

You never stated that, nor could it realistically be inferred from the context of the post to which you responded. And the posts thereafter were clearly referring to owners with existing mortgage debt.

But, since you tried to time the market, and got it drastically wrong, it does make sense that you're looking at it from the perspective of someone who is buying but has no property to sell.

ReadySteadyPop

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

MeteredOut said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RelievedSheff said:

The BOE will not cut rates this month. 

Media speculation does nothing to help the situation.

If interest rate and mortgage rate "articles" were not in the media every ten minutes people would just be going about their lives as normal instead of putting off major purchases because there "may" be a rate cut on the way.

People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now.

Please don't take this personally, but since exiting the property market a few years ago, you're now starting to sound desperate for a house price crash (not just this post, but the underlying message across most of your posts).

I doubt its going to happen - people will just not move. It's not like 2008 where so many people we overleveraged on their property and had to sell. This time, the affordability rules have ensured that the majority can still cope their mortgage payments and will accept a squeeze elsewhere in their lives rather than selling for below what they perceive is the true value of their house.

Not sure what you mean by that, in the run up to 2008 houses were much cheaper than they are now!

Do you know what the current affordability tests are? I'm talking in relative terms. People had mortgages repayments that were not tested against what could be a significant increase in mortgage rates, so when rates went up, they could no longer afford the new monthly payments.

Despite all the media noise around the recent increases in mortgage rates, there is no evidence that is happening to any similar extent today.

Back on subject, I predict no cut in the next announcement.

 Sales have dropped considerably, that is where the effects are being seen so far, but it seems obvious that if houses are much more expensive than 2008 but interest rates are about the same that some people are going to struggle? It is the long period in-between 2008 and now, the zero interest rate period, that caused the problems.

You weren't talking about sales dropping. You said "People can`t afford the monthly debt payments anymore, one or two small rate cuts won`t solve that, it is a price cut that is required now."

I pointed out that this is not like 2008. The number of people who will have to sell, or have their homes repossessed will be nothing like what happened then; people will simply not sell their house below what they perceive is its "true value". The vast majority CAN afford the monthly debt payments, but they may have had to make alterations elsewhere in their lives.

No-one is denying sales have dropped, but you're constant insistence that the current rates will result in a house price crashy (see what I did there?) is futile (and, IMO, tedious).

I was talking about new buyers, not people who already have mortgage debt, how would a price cut help them?

You never stated that, nor could it realistically be inferred from the context of the post to which you responded. And the posts thereafter were clearly referring to owners with existing mortgage debt.

But, since you tried to time the market, and got it drastically wrong, it does make sense that you're looking at it from the perspective of someone who is buying but has no property to sell.

Some people seem concerned about existing mortgage debt, but as you say the two sides of the coin are very different.

https://propertyindustryeye.com/bank-of-england-urged-to-cut-interest-rates-as-mortgage-costs-rise/

Martico

The BoE have made policy mistakes, but I'll trust them over some Tufton Street think-tank

sevenhills

naf123 said:

Interesting how the economy has coped with the increase in rates, e.g mortgage approvals are on the up. In a way high interest rates should weed out unproductive businesses and boost productivity in the economy in general. So I imagine there is no incentive to cut rates again until the next real economic "crisis", 

Therefore going to predict , no cuts until 2025

Surely the political need for an interest rate cut will see another small cut before 2025

naf123

sevenhills said:

naf123 said:

Interesting how the economy has coped with the increase in rates, e.g mortgage approvals are on the up. In a way high interest rates should weed out unproductive businesses and boost productivity in the economy in general. So I imagine there is no incentive to cut rates again until the next real economic "crisis", 

Therefore going to predict , no cuts until 2025

Surely the political need for an interest rate cut will see another small cut before 2025

On the contrary , I think no . BoE need to be seen as independent.....