New National Analysis on E7 Price Increase - Ave 7.6%

pensionpawn

MattMattMattUK said:

pensionpawn said:

EssexHebridean said:

pensionpawn said:

dunstonh said:

I think you might be missing the point. Historically the ratio was more like 70:30, or even 80:20 decades ago. The point being that historically these "currently frustrated" E7 customers were on a suitable tariff for their usage profile in the past. 

In 2022, you could get as low as 10% night use to be better on E7 with a certain supplier but 20% upwards was more typical.

Some suppliers have certainly pushed their pricing to favour those with much higher night ratios. However, that suggests the market is more efficient than single price as it still provides choice.

. You're not wrong that the E7 tariff is inappropriate for them now, that isn't being contended. So what is the impact of the changing E7 ratio, well it's migration to the single tariff and an increasing daytime demand on the grid / energy generators during an energy crisis. Surely not what Ofgen should be encouraging?

E7 may still be appropriate.  Just not the E7 supplier they are using.  If one has a business model that wants to price for a high ratio of night use and you are a low night user then single rate may be the best option but so could be moving to a supplier that prices on a lower nigh rate ratio.

Changing from multi-rate to single rate wont change how these people use their electricity.   It will just change the price they pay.

I've checked a few energy firms for Wiltshire and I can't find one with a 70:30 split, or better. If anyone can point me in the right direction then please do let me know.
Changing from multi to single rate can change how people use their electricity based on their circumstances. I now run my appliances when it is convenient to me, which is now during the day.

So perhaps this should indicate that you’re no longer the right customer for E7. Think about it this way - if you’d always bought a particular brand of bread, but they changed the recipe so you no longer enjoyed eating it, would you just insist that you should continue to buy it because it’s what you’ve always done? Of course not - you’d have a look around and find a different product that suited your needs. Energy tariffs are the same - sometimes things change, and sometimes your use changes. Either should prompt a review and changes if needed. 

I have looked around and changed, to single rate! However the point I am trying to make is that changing the ratio of the E7 tariff in a way that persuades customers to abandon E7, in the middle of an energy crisis, is not sensible for the country as a whole, let alone irritating to the individuals concerned. 

The largest part of the "energy crisis" is cost rather than a shortage.

pensionpawn said:
If anything the E7 ratio should be changing to encourage more customers to move to E7 and hence reduce demand during the daytime peaks, which are nearing 100% of generating capacity!

We have not got close to nearing maximum generation capacity for some time, there was a notice at the back end of last year which the media picked up on but we still had 8% spare capacity in generation that was already online, with the notice being that if that fell further then coal plants should be ready to be brought online which would add further capacity. E7 in marginal cases where people only use a low percentage at night is generally not going to work and those people with their low usage at night are not improving grid balance anyway.

So engineers in telecoms companies working with the grid / energy companies to incentivise timeshifting of day (peak) time energy use was just an exercise in case a worse case scenario presents itself?

E7 has benefited me for the majority of the last 26 years and I would argue that running my high power appliances over night, along with all the other E7 customers, has suppressed demand, especially during day time peak hours. This E7 ratio change will (is / has, read some other posters comments) move some demand from night to day. Time will tell whether this is just noise or a few straws on a camels back.

MattMattMattUK

pensionpawn said:

MattMattMattUK said:

pensionpawn said:

EssexHebridean said:

pensionpawn said:

dunstonh said:

I think you might be missing the point. Historically the ratio was more like 70:30, or even 80:20 decades ago. The point being that historically these "currently frustrated" E7 customers were on a suitable tariff for their usage profile in the past. 

In 2022, you could get as low as 10% night use to be better on E7 with a certain supplier but 20% upwards was more typical.

Some suppliers have certainly pushed their pricing to favour those with much higher night ratios. However, that suggests the market is more efficient than single price as it still provides choice.

. You're not wrong that the E7 tariff is inappropriate for them now, that isn't being contended. So what is the impact of the changing E7 ratio, well it's migration to the single tariff and an increasing daytime demand on the grid / energy generators during an energy crisis. Surely not what Ofgen should be encouraging?

E7 may still be appropriate.  Just not the E7 supplier they are using.  If one has a business model that wants to price for a high ratio of night use and you are a low night user then single rate may be the best option but so could be moving to a supplier that prices on a lower nigh rate ratio.

Changing from multi-rate to single rate wont change how these people use their electricity.   It will just change the price they pay.

I've checked a few energy firms for Wiltshire and I can't find one with a 70:30 split, or better. If anyone can point me in the right direction then please do let me know.
Changing from multi to single rate can change how people use their electricity based on their circumstances. I now run my appliances when it is convenient to me, which is now during the day.

So perhaps this should indicate that you’re no longer the right customer for E7. Think about it this way - if you’d always bought a particular brand of bread, but they changed the recipe so you no longer enjoyed eating it, would you just insist that you should continue to buy it because it’s what you’ve always done? Of course not - you’d have a look around and find a different product that suited your needs. Energy tariffs are the same - sometimes things change, and sometimes your use changes. Either should prompt a review and changes if needed. 

I have looked around and changed, to single rate! However the point I am trying to make is that changing the ratio of the E7 tariff in a way that persuades customers to abandon E7, in the middle of an energy crisis, is not sensible for the country as a whole, let alone irritating to the individuals concerned. 

The largest part of the "energy crisis" is cost rather than a shortage.

pensionpawn said:
If anything the E7 ratio should be changing to encourage more customers to move to E7 and hence reduce demand during the daytime peaks, which are nearing 100% of generating capacity!

We have not got close to nearing maximum generation capacity for some time, there was a notice at the back end of last year which the media picked up on but we still had 8% spare capacity in generation that was already online, with the notice being that if that fell further then coal plants should be ready to be brought online which would add further capacity. E7 in marginal cases where people only use a low percentage at night is generally not going to work and those people with their low usage at night are not improving grid balance anyway.

So engineers in telecoms companies working with the grid / energy companies to incentivise timeshifting of day (peak) time energy use was just an exercise in case a worse case scenario presents itself?

Large industrial users can receive significant discounts for night usage, they can also be subject to load shedding contracts covering the day and have backups in place for that. However yes it is largely based around a worse case scenario, very cold days in winter which are still and heavily overcast, so demand is high and wind and solar generation are both low. The panic in the media last year was a potential scenario where gas supplies might run low meaning that gas power plants had to be taken offline to preserve supplies so the gas network did not depressurise, that was a potential but highly unlikely scenario.

pensionpawn said:

E7 has benefited me for the majority of the last 26 years and I would argue that running my high power appliances over night, along with all the other E7 customers, has suppressed demand, especially during day time peak hours. This E7 ratio change will (is / has, read some other posters comments) move some demand from night to day. Time will tell whether this is just noise or a few straws on a camels back.

The thing is we have established from your other posts that you were probably always a marginal case for E7. The peak is not so much all day but 07:00-08:00 and 17:00-20:00, much of those who have stopped using E7 will have moved from night to day, but much of that will not have moved to peak periods. Most of it is a lot of noise, in time we will all have proper ToU tariffs on smart meters and those who refuse smart meters will have permanent peak rate prices. 

littleteapot

Regarding industrial users, I used to work for a large telecoms company. Not sure if it still happens, but as most of the major sites had diesel generators the national grid actually paid the company to run the generators to reduce load on the grid in areas where the demand at peak times was expected to exceed the available capacity. This typically happened 3--4 times a year. The added benefit of this to the company is it made sure the now very old generators got regular full-load use to ensure no nasty surprises when they were occasionally needed in an emergency blackout!

Dandytf

Scot_39 said:

Dandytf said:

Surprised today's new report doesn't mention White Meter Areas.
I have storage heaters 2 rate in WM area, and witnessed increase through Day use.

There are several multi-rate tariffs available historically.  Most - other than E7 - almost entirely abandoned for new customers with most suppliers (unless inherit an old meter on moving into a property)

White meter as I remember it from my parents day - used to be a form of E7 metering at one stage - at least for the Scottish Power version in central Scotland - which gave 8 continuous hours - not 7 - off peak.  The version for the WM / another supplier ?

But certainly if it is a conventional multi-rate tariff (x hours off peak / x hours peak etc ) - it is (or at least the maximum price) determined by the same Ofgem cap table as E7.

Most of the now failed new suppliers only ever supported SR and E7 - as did price comparison/switching sites.

The last data I saw from Ofgem - c2020/21 consultation paperwork - was iirc 4m multirate users - with c0.5m spread amongst the non E7 legacy/older tariffs.

E7 covers the majority of remaining multi-rate meters - and most suppliers are more open at producing the rates and actually support it - the BBC article refers to 2.5 million E7 metered customers. 

The Cap itself - actually not just one cap

There are essentially a set of 2 domestic cap tables - on for gas / one for electric - Ofgem calculates and issues to domestec suppliers - for each of the 3 main different payment methods.

Tabled by Ofgem as annual Standing Charge (the NIL rate) and total price for unit allowance

Gas 12000kWh

Electric - Single Rate 3100 kWh and Multi-rate Electric 4200kWh

The latest set are available as PDF via top link at bottom of

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/default-tariff-cap-level-1-january-2023-31-march-2023 

Itself linked from the main cap announcement

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/latest-energy-price-cap-announced-ofgem 

The current duel fuel cap quoted total price - and so the EPG - allows for 2900kWh (not 3100kWh as tabled) of SR electric and the 12000kWh gas.

PS  Direct debit is actually labelled "other payment method" in these Ofgem tables. 

Paying at bank or by cheque after receipt of bill = standard credit etc.

The EPG / discounting I believe sits relative to gas and regional average single rate electric pricing - but am willing to be proven wrong.

Scot_39 said:

Dandytf said:

Surprised today's new report doesn't mention White Meter Areas.
I have storage heaters 2 rate in WM area, and witnessed increase through Day use.

White meter as I remember it from my parents day - used to be a form of E7 metering at one stage - at least for the Scottish Power version in central Scotland - which gave 8 continuous hours - not 7 - off peak.  The version for the WM / another supplier ?

The Cap itself - actually not just one cap

There are essentially a set of 2 domestic cap tables - on for gas / one for electric - Ofgem calculates and issues to domestec suppliers - for each of the 3 main different payment methods.

Tabled by Ofgem as annual Standing Charge (the NIL rate) and total price for unit allowance

Gas 12000kWh

Electric - Single Rate 3100 kWh and Multi-rate Electric 4200kWh

The latest set are available as PDF via top link at bottom of

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/default-tariff-cap-level-1-january-2023-31-march-2023 

Itself linked from the main cap announcement

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/latest-energy-price-cap-announced-ofgem 

The current duel fuel cap quoted total price - and so the EPG - allows for 2900kWh (not 3100kWh as tabled) of SR electric and the 12000kWh gas.

PS  Direct debit is actually labelled "other payment method" in these Ofgem tables. 

Paying at bank or by cheque after receipt of bill = standard credit etc.

The EPG / discounting I believe sits relative to gas and regional average single rate electric pricing - but am willing to be proven wrong.

I'm Scottish SP Are 18-White Meter as per SP Tariff Label.
thanks, don't have table read time, only noticed via Smart meter that day cost is much higher in recent months for very little early morning use.

thanks

SnakePlissken

Dandytf said:

Scot_39 said:

Dandytf said:

Surprised today's new report doesn't mention White Meter Areas.
I have storage heaters 2 rate in WM area, and witnessed increase through Day use.

There are several multi-rate tariffs available historically.  Most - other than E7 - almost entirely abandoned for new customers with most suppliers (unless inherit an old meter on moving into a property)

White meter as I remember it from my parents day - used to be a form of E7 metering at one stage - at least for the Scottish Power version in central Scotland - which gave 8 continuous hours - not 7 - off peak.  The version for the WM / another supplier ?

But certainly if it is a conventional multi-rate tariff (x hours off peak / x hours peak etc ) - it is (or at least the maximum price) determined by the same Ofgem cap table as E7.

Most of the now failed new suppliers only ever supported SR and E7 - as did price comparison/switching sites.

The last data I saw from Ofgem - c2020/21 consultation paperwork - was iirc 4m multirate users - with c0.5m spread amongst the non E7 legacy/older tariffs.

E7 covers the majority of remaining multi-rate meters - and most suppliers are more open at producing the rates and actually support it - the BBC article refers to 2.5 million E7 metered customers. 

The Cap itself - actually not just one cap

There are essentially a set of 2 domestic cap tables - on for gas / one for electric - Ofgem calculates and issues to domestec suppliers - for each of the 3 main different payment methods.

Tabled by Ofgem as annual Standing Charge (the NIL rate) and total price for unit allowance

Gas 12000kWh

Electric - Single Rate 3100 kWh and Multi-rate Electric 4200kWh

The latest set are available as PDF via top link at bottom of

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/default-tariff-cap-level-1-january-2023-31-march-2023 

Itself linked from the main cap announcement

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/latest-energy-price-cap-announced-ofgem 

The current duel fuel cap quoted total price - and so the EPG - allows for 2900kWh (not 3100kWh as tabled) of SR electric and the 12000kWh gas.

PS  Direct debit is actually labelled "other payment method" in these Ofgem tables. 

Paying at bank or by cheque after receipt of bill = standard credit etc.

The EPG / discounting I believe sits relative to gas and regional average single rate electric pricing - but am willing to be proven wrong.

Scot_39 said:

Dandytf said:

Surprised today's new report doesn't mention White Meter Areas.
I have storage heaters 2 rate in WM area, and witnessed increase through Day use.

White meter as I remember it from my parents day - used to be a form of E7 metering at one stage - at least for the Scottish Power version in central Scotland - which gave 8 continuous hours - not 7 - off peak.  The version for the WM / another supplier ?

The Cap itself - actually not just one cap

There are essentially a set of 2 domestic cap tables - on for gas / one for electric - Ofgem calculates and issues to domestec suppliers - for each of the 3 main different payment methods.

Tabled by Ofgem as annual Standing Charge (the NIL rate) and total price for unit allowance

Gas 12000kWh

Electric - Single Rate 3100 kWh and Multi-rate Electric 4200kWh

The latest set are available as PDF via top link at bottom of

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/default-tariff-cap-level-1-january-2023-31-march-2023 

Itself linked from the main cap announcement

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/latest-energy-price-cap-announced-ofgem 

The current duel fuel cap quoted total price - and so the EPG - allows for 2900kWh (not 3100kWh as tabled) of SR electric and the 12000kWh gas.

PS  Direct debit is actually labelled "other payment method" in these Ofgem tables. 

Paying at bank or by cheque after receipt of bill = standard credit etc.

The EPG / discounting I believe sits relative to gas and regional average single rate electric pricing - but am willing to be proven wrong.

I'm Scottish SP Are 18-White Meter as per SP Tariff Label.
thanks, don't have table read time, only noticed via Smart meter that day cost is much higher in recent months for very little early morning use.

thanks

In north of Scotland white meter was similar to E7 in rates charged, but lasted 8 hours from 11:30 to 07:30 .

The extra hour was probably to reflect the cooler temperatures there during day as well as at night. With extra hour giving storage heaters an extra hours charge, which helped them last until next charge.

markin

E7 is a legacy of Coal and nuclear when the price was steady every day, now its wind or Gas so the average over a week or year is simply far higher. ToU may eventually replace it but if it remains it will be at a higher cost than the past. 

pensionpawn

MattMattMattUK said:

pensionpawn said:

MattMattMattUK said:

pensionpawn said:

EssexHebridean said:

pensionpawn said:

dunstonh said:

I think you might be missing the point. Historically the ratio was more like 70:30, or even 80:20 decades ago. The point being that historically these "currently frustrated" E7 customers were on a suitable tariff for their usage profile in the past. 

In 2022, you could get as low as 10% night use to be better on E7 with a certain supplier but 20% upwards was more typical.

Some suppliers have certainly pushed their pricing to favour those with much higher night ratios. However, that suggests the market is more efficient than single price as it still provides choice.

. You're not wrong that the E7 tariff is inappropriate for them now, that isn't being contended. So what is the impact of the changing E7 ratio, well it's migration to the single tariff and an increasing daytime demand on the grid / energy generators during an energy crisis. Surely not what Ofgen should be encouraging?

E7 may still be appropriate.  Just not the E7 supplier they are using.  If one has a business model that wants to price for a high ratio of night use and you are a low night user then single rate may be the best option but so could be moving to a supplier that prices on a lower nigh rate ratio.

Changing from multi-rate to single rate wont change how these people use their electricity.   It will just change the price they pay.

I've checked a few energy firms for Wiltshire and I can't find one with a 70:30 split, or better. If anyone can point me in the right direction then please do let me know.
Changing from multi to single rate can change how people use their electricity based on their circumstances. I now run my appliances when it is convenient to me, which is now during the day.

So perhaps this should indicate that you’re no longer the right customer for E7. Think about it this way - if you’d always bought a particular brand of bread, but they changed the recipe so you no longer enjoyed eating it, would you just insist that you should continue to buy it because it’s what you’ve always done? Of course not - you’d have a look around and find a different product that suited your needs. Energy tariffs are the same - sometimes things change, and sometimes your use changes. Either should prompt a review and changes if needed. 

I have looked around and changed, to single rate! However the point I am trying to make is that changing the ratio of the E7 tariff in a way that persuades customers to abandon E7, in the middle of an energy crisis, is not sensible for the country as a whole, let alone irritating to the individuals concerned. 

The largest part of the "energy crisis" is cost rather than a shortage.

pensionpawn said:
If anything the E7 ratio should be changing to encourage more customers to move to E7 and hence reduce demand during the daytime peaks, which are nearing 100% of generating capacity!

We have not got close to nearing maximum generation capacity for some time, there was a notice at the back end of last year which the media picked up on but we still had 8% spare capacity in generation that was already online, with the notice being that if that fell further then coal plants should be ready to be brought online which would add further capacity. E7 in marginal cases where people only use a low percentage at night is generally not going to work and those people with their low usage at night are not improving grid balance anyway.

So engineers in telecoms companies working with the grid / energy companies to incentivise timeshifting of day (peak) time energy use was just an exercise in case a worse case scenario presents itself?

Large industrial users can receive significant discounts for night usage, they can also be subject to load shedding contracts covering the day and have backups in place for that. However yes it is largely based around a worse case scenario, very cold days in winter which are still and heavily overcast, so demand is high and wind and solar generation are both low. The panic in the media last year was a potential scenario where gas supplies might run low meaning that gas power plants had to be taken offline to preserve supplies so the gas network did not depressurise, that was a potential but highly unlikely scenario.

pensionpawn said:

E7 has benefited me for the majority of the last 26 years and I would argue that running my high power appliances over night, along with all the other E7 customers, has suppressed demand, especially during day time peak hours. This E7 ratio change will (is / has, read some other posters comments) move some demand from night to day. Time will tell whether this is just noise or a few straws on a camels back.

The thing is we have established from your other posts that you were probably always a marginal case for E7. The peak is not so much all day but 07:00-08:00 and 17:00-20:00, much of those who have stopped using E7 will have moved from night to day, but much of that will not have moved to peak periods. Most of it is a lot of noise, in time we will all have proper ToU tariffs on smart meters and those who refuse smart meters will have permanent peak rate prices. 

Not getting close to maximum capacity....? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64367504

EssexHebridean

The article even confirms it. 

National Grid ESO said the measures were "precautionary" and it did not mean electricity supplies were at risk.

MattMattMattUK

pensionpawn said:

MattMattMattUK said:

pensionpawn said:

MattMattMattUK said:

pensionpawn said:

EssexHebridean said:

pensionpawn said:

dunstonh said:

I think you might be missing the point. Historically the ratio was more like 70:30, or even 80:20 decades ago. The point being that historically these "currently frustrated" E7 customers were on a suitable tariff for their usage profile in the past. 

In 2022, you could get as low as 10% night use to be better on E7 with a certain supplier but 20% upwards was more typical.

Some suppliers have certainly pushed their pricing to favour those with much higher night ratios. However, that suggests the market is more efficient than single price as it still provides choice.

. You're not wrong that the E7 tariff is inappropriate for them now, that isn't being contended. So what is the impact of the changing E7 ratio, well it's migration to the single tariff and an increasing daytime demand on the grid / energy generators during an energy crisis. Surely not what Ofgen should be encouraging?

E7 may still be appropriate.  Just not the E7 supplier they are using.  If one has a business model that wants to price for a high ratio of night use and you are a low night user then single rate may be the best option but so could be moving to a supplier that prices on a lower nigh rate ratio.

Changing from multi-rate to single rate wont change how these people use their electricity.   It will just change the price they pay.

I've checked a few energy firms for Wiltshire and I can't find one with a 70:30 split, or better. If anyone can point me in the right direction then please do let me know.
Changing from multi to single rate can change how people use their electricity based on their circumstances. I now run my appliances when it is convenient to me, which is now during the day.

So perhaps this should indicate that you’re no longer the right customer for E7. Think about it this way - if you’d always bought a particular brand of bread, but they changed the recipe so you no longer enjoyed eating it, would you just insist that you should continue to buy it because it’s what you’ve always done? Of course not - you’d have a look around and find a different product that suited your needs. Energy tariffs are the same - sometimes things change, and sometimes your use changes. Either should prompt a review and changes if needed. 

I have looked around and changed, to single rate! However the point I am trying to make is that changing the ratio of the E7 tariff in a way that persuades customers to abandon E7, in the middle of an energy crisis, is not sensible for the country as a whole, let alone irritating to the individuals concerned. 

The largest part of the "energy crisis" is cost rather than a shortage.

pensionpawn said:
If anything the E7 ratio should be changing to encourage more customers to move to E7 and hence reduce demand during the daytime peaks, which are nearing 100% of generating capacity!

We have not got close to nearing maximum generation capacity for some time, there was a notice at the back end of last year which the media picked up on but we still had 8% spare capacity in generation that was already online, with the notice being that if that fell further then coal plants should be ready to be brought online which would add further capacity. E7 in marginal cases where people only use a low percentage at night is generally not going to work and those people with their low usage at night are not improving grid balance anyway.

So engineers in telecoms companies working with the grid / energy companies to incentivise timeshifting of day (peak) time energy use was just an exercise in case a worse case scenario presents itself?

Large industrial users can receive significant discounts for night usage, they can also be subject to load shedding contracts covering the day and have backups in place for that. However yes it is largely based around a worse case scenario, very cold days in winter which are still and heavily overcast, so demand is high and wind and solar generation are both low. The panic in the media last year was a potential scenario where gas supplies might run low meaning that gas power plants had to be taken offline to preserve supplies so the gas network did not depressurise, that was a potential but highly unlikely scenario.

pensionpawn said:

E7 has benefited me for the majority of the last 26 years and I would argue that running my high power appliances over night, along with all the other E7 customers, has suppressed demand, especially during day time peak hours. This E7 ratio change will (is / has, read some other posters comments) move some demand from night to day. Time will tell whether this is just noise or a few straws on a camels back.

The thing is we have established from your other posts that you were probably always a marginal case for E7. The peak is not so much all day but 07:00-08:00 and 17:00-20:00, much of those who have stopped using E7 will have moved from night to day, but much of that will not have moved to peak periods. Most of it is a lot of noise, in time we will all have proper ToU tariffs on smart meters and those who refuse smart meters will have permanent peak rate prices. 

Not getting close to maximum capacity....? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64367504

Not really, it is a fairly standard notification, however the media always misinterpret these, just as they did with the December one. There is a low risk that they might be needed, if the wind falls lower than expected, demand is higher than expected and demand cannot be fed from the interconnectors. As an example yesterday and today max usage peaked at roughly 40GW, UK max theoretical generation capacity is 76.6 GW, however some of that is offline, some is solar so does not generate at night, wind that is weather dependant etc. Some of the the offline capacity is in that power plant, approximately 4 MW of generation capacity (6% of max peak, around 66 GW). Sometimes this is also to mitigate the risk of a currently generating facility going offline as well, hence why in December even though the Drax plants have been put on standby they got nowhere near to being used and were taken back offline on the Monday lunchtime, well before the peak at 17:00.

pensionpawn

MattMattMattUK said:

pensionpawn said:

MattMattMattUK said:

pensionpawn said:

MattMattMattUK said:

pensionpawn said:

EssexHebridean said:

pensionpawn said:

dunstonh said:

I think you might be missing the point. Historically the ratio was more like 70:30, or even 80:20 decades ago. The point being that historically these "currently frustrated" E7 customers were on a suitable tariff for their usage profile in the past. 

In 2022, you could get as low as 10% night use to be better on E7 with a certain supplier but 20% upwards was more typical.

Some suppliers have certainly pushed their pricing to favour those with much higher night ratios. However, that suggests the market is more efficient than single price as it still provides choice.

. You're not wrong that the E7 tariff is inappropriate for them now, that isn't being contended. So what is the impact of the changing E7 ratio, well it's migration to the single tariff and an increasing daytime demand on the grid / energy generators during an energy crisis. Surely not what Ofgen should be encouraging?

E7 may still be appropriate.  Just not the E7 supplier they are using.  If one has a business model that wants to price for a high ratio of night use and you are a low night user then single rate may be the best option but so could be moving to a supplier that prices on a lower nigh rate ratio.

Changing from multi-rate to single rate wont change how these people use their electricity.   It will just change the price they pay.

I've checked a few energy firms for Wiltshire and I can't find one with a 70:30 split, or better. If anyone can point me in the right direction then please do let me know.
Changing from multi to single rate can change how people use their electricity based on their circumstances. I now run my appliances when it is convenient to me, which is now during the day.

So perhaps this should indicate that you’re no longer the right customer for E7. Think about it this way - if you’d always bought a particular brand of bread, but they changed the recipe so you no longer enjoyed eating it, would you just insist that you should continue to buy it because it’s what you’ve always done? Of course not - you’d have a look around and find a different product that suited your needs. Energy tariffs are the same - sometimes things change, and sometimes your use changes. Either should prompt a review and changes if needed. 

I have looked around and changed, to single rate! However the point I am trying to make is that changing the ratio of the E7 tariff in a way that persuades customers to abandon E7, in the middle of an energy crisis, is not sensible for the country as a whole, let alone irritating to the individuals concerned. 

The largest part of the "energy crisis" is cost rather than a shortage.

pensionpawn said:
If anything the E7 ratio should be changing to encourage more customers to move to E7 and hence reduce demand during the daytime peaks, which are nearing 100% of generating capacity!

We have not got close to nearing maximum generation capacity for some time, there was a notice at the back end of last year which the media picked up on but we still had 8% spare capacity in generation that was already online, with the notice being that if that fell further then coal plants should be ready to be brought online which would add further capacity. E7 in marginal cases where people only use a low percentage at night is generally not going to work and those people with their low usage at night are not improving grid balance anyway.

So engineers in telecoms companies working with the grid / energy companies to incentivise timeshifting of day (peak) time energy use was just an exercise in case a worse case scenario presents itself?

Large industrial users can receive significant discounts for night usage, they can also be subject to load shedding contracts covering the day and have backups in place for that. However yes it is largely based around a worse case scenario, very cold days in winter which are still and heavily overcast, so demand is high and wind and solar generation are both low. The panic in the media last year was a potential scenario where gas supplies might run low meaning that gas power plants had to be taken offline to preserve supplies so the gas network did not depressurise, that was a potential but highly unlikely scenario.

pensionpawn said:

E7 has benefited me for the majority of the last 26 years and I would argue that running my high power appliances over night, along with all the other E7 customers, has suppressed demand, especially during day time peak hours. This E7 ratio change will (is / has, read some other posters comments) move some demand from night to day. Time will tell whether this is just noise or a few straws on a camels back.

The thing is we have established from your other posts that you were probably always a marginal case for E7. The peak is not so much all day but 07:00-08:00 and 17:00-20:00, much of those who have stopped using E7 will have moved from night to day, but much of that will not have moved to peak periods. Most of it is a lot of noise, in time we will all have proper ToU tariffs on smart meters and those who refuse smart meters will have permanent peak rate prices. 

Not getting close to maximum capacity....? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64367504

Not really, it is a fairly standard notification, however the media always misinterpret these, just as they did with the December one. There is a low risk that they might be needed, if the wind falls lower than expected, demand is higher than expected and demand cannot be fed from the interconnectors. As an example yesterday and today max usage peaked at roughly 40GW, UK max theoretical generation capacity is 76.6 GW, however some of that is offline, some is solar so does not generate at night, wind that is weather dependant etc. Some of the the offline capacity is in that power plant, approximately 4 MW of generation capacity (6% of max peak, around 66 GW). Sometimes this is also to mitigate the risk of a currently generating facility going offline as well, hence why in December even though the Drax plants have been put on standby they got nowhere near to being used and were taken back offline on the Monday lunchtime, well before the peak at 17:00.

I admire your confidence! I'm sceptical of anyone who feels that they have to publicly announce that they have everything under control and there's no need to be concerned. Hopefully this will also not be necessary "A scheme that offers discounts for households who cut peak-time energy use is also set to be triggered."