New National Analysis on E7 Price Increase - Ave 7.6%

Scot_39

See 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64332617


By one Analysis an average 7.6% increase - this year it says - but assume that is purely Jan 1st.

If that 7.6% rise had applied to all fuels, including those on nominal df dd cap of £2500 - it would make it £ 2700.

And the average cost - on E7 - £2964 vs DFDD £2500 headline EPG figure.

And of course its not just E7, but other restricted metering multirate tariffs like E10, 20:20 based on Ofgem RMI tariff cap seeing these sort of changes.

My own off peak heating rate up over 11% on E10, my peak up as well, so on predicted annual use, 9.8% total.
Just in time for normally coldest months of year, when impact is over 10.5% as more off peak with NSH when heat on.

And another example of someone leaving an off peak encouraging tariff to save money.  At a time when peak use offsetting paying users back to reduce use to avoid evening demand peaks.

My E10 already encourages avoiding those times  - by charging 13p more than SR - e.g. from 4pm to 8pm.

Seems sadly from comments both Ofgem and govt think that those price rises for multirate users are reasonable despite the EPG supposedly being fixed until April.

I disagree.

And sadly no HYS to comment.

EssexHebridean

About an 8% increase here - which thank goodness we can cope with, but there are a worrying number of people out there who can’t. 

MattMattMattUK

The percentage increase is largely irrelevant, though I notice the article seems to jump around between increase in amount, percentage and then comparison to dual fuel.

Based on the Ofgem profiles an average E7 user (4,200kWh pa) would have a bill of £1,351.25 based on EDF's South East rates and a high user (7,100 kWh pa) would have a bill of £2,163.68, to get to the figures mentioned in the article they would either need to be using 40% more than the high users or they would need to have usage badly skewed towards peak rate.

Scot_39 said:

Seems sadly from comments both Ofgem and govt think that those price rises for multirate users are reasonable despite the EPG supposedly being fixed until April.

I disagree.

The EPG is fixed, but some people misunderstands how it interacts with the underlying price cap.

Scot_39 said:

And sadly no HYS to comment.

HYS is awful, most often the top voted answers are factually wrong, little point in promoting views which are demonstrably wrong.

EssexHebridean

MattMattMattUK said:

The percentage increase is largely irrelevant, though I notice the article seems to jump around between increase in amount, percentage and then comparison to dual fuel.

Based on the Ofgem profiles an average E7 user (4,200kWh pa) would have a bill of £1,351.25 based on EDF's South East rates and a high user (7,100 kWh pa) would have a bill of £2,163.68, to get to the figures mentioned in the article they would either need to be using 40% more than the high users or they would need to have usage badly skewed towards peak rate.

Scot_39 said:

Seems sadly from comments both Ofgem and govt think that those price rises for multirate users are reasonable despite the EPG supposedly being fixed until April.

I disagree.

The EPG is fixed, but some people misunderstands how it interacts with the underlying price cap.

Scot_39 said:

And sadly no HYS to comment.

HYS is awful, most often the top voted answers are factually wrong, little point in promoting views which are demonstrably wrong.

This. If you are using more electricity during the day than you are during the off peak period then E7 is probably not for you. In the same way as a super bargainous subscription offer for coffee beans is not for me as a non coffee drinker.  There seems to be an expectation these days that everything has to be for everyone - but that’s not the case. If it doesn’t suit you because it’s more expensive, then make your choices accordingly! 

In fairness the Ofgem suggestions of average use are probably too low for modern standards - I’m not sure when they were set? We don’t heat to what I’d consider an abnormally high level - we aim for around 19° most of the time in the living areas, lower in the bedroom. We use very slightly more than the alleged “average” figure, but not even close to the high one. And we also skew very heavily towards off peak use. That’s for a reasonably sized 2 bed flat. Clearly someone in a large house will use more, but then they are also likely to not fall within the EPG “typical user” figures either. 

Scot_39

Ofgem cap and so EPG by default allows a duel fuel user 2900kWh I guess assuming heating and hot water predominantly by gas.

The GCH pump and boiler electrics overhead tiny fraction of it.

And allows 12000 kWh purely for gas.

It is inconceivable the same average user - in a similar household / property - for cooking and heating from electric is only an additional 1300 kWh annually above the 2900 kWh.

That's almost a 10th of the energy input.

Which is why some energy price forecasting sites add the 2900 + 4200 for all electric.

pochase

The problem was that the E7 rates for October were cheaper than the EPG when they were calculated on the 42/58 split in many cases.

Now for January they have been increased to the EPG single rate level, so the correct statement would be that E7 users got a price below the EPG for the last three month.

MattMattMattUK

Scot_39 said:

Ofgem cap and so EPG by default allows a duel fuel user 2900kWh I guess assuming heating and hot water predominantly by gas.

The GCH pump and boiler electrics overhead tiny fraction of it.

And allows 12000 kWh purely for gas.

It is inconceivable the same average user - in a similar household / property - for cooking and heating from electric is only an additional 1300 kWh annually above the 2900 kWh.

That's almost a 10th of the energy input.

Which is why some energy price forecasting sites add the 2900 + 4200 for all electric.

The thing with the profiles is they are averages, even the higher figures are averages of higher users, they do not directly account for different living circumstances in the way they are designed.

The Profile 2 user is all electric, all electric properties are generally flats, they are usually smaller than houses, they often end up being insulated by virtue of being surrounded by other properties in the same building so are only open on one or two sides and only the top floor will have a roof etc. Whilst all electric houses do exist they tend not to be that numerous and those that do are often now using heat pumps and have solar installed which further complicates things. Profile 1 properties are generally larger, on average more than twice the size and remember that includes duel fuel flats. A Profile 1 property generally has more people living in it than a profile 2 property, I cannot find the reference but from memory the average in a P1 is 3.8 people and it is 1.6 for P2 which also impacts the wider electricity usage.

Scot_39

Me and others have seen their price increase by similar - to rates in that report - peak and off peak.

And for many in Jan - that has significantly changed the split required day vs night to break even.  In my case by over 10%.

Others have also seen that degree of change, so are no longer viable E7 users - and so many are now switching to flat rate.

Perversely at a time when off peak tariffs like E7, and even more so legacy tariffs like E10, should actively be being encouraged.

To reduce need for others to be paid rebates for not using power c6pm etc.

dunstonh

Rubbish reporting by the BBC.  And no referencing to the fact you can shop around and pick suppliers as pricing is different across the suppliers with some targetting higher off peak ratios than others.

My E7 costs are going down thanks to EDF going to 7p off peak and I have over 70% ratio to off peak.  If I was just 20% then it would be going up and I would be better with another supplier but it would still not be right to go single rate.

mmmmikey

dunstonh said:

Rubbish reporting by the BBC.  And no referencing to the fact you can shop around and pick suppliers as pricing is different across the suppliers with some targetting higher off peak ratios than others.

My E7 costs are going down thanks to EDF going to 7p off peak and I have over 70% ratio to off peak.  If I was just 20% then it would be going up and I would be better with another supplier but it would still not be right to go single rate.

Yes indeed - shockingly bad reporting and a misleading and unhelpful article. Makes you wonder how good their reporting is on other issues. There was a time when the BBC was a reliable source of news but sadly those days seem to have gone.

Scot_39

dunstonh said:

Rubbish reporting by the BBC.  And no referencing to the fact you can shop around and pick suppliers as pricing is different across the suppliers with some targetting higher off peak ratios than others.

My E7 costs are going down thanks to EDF going to 7p off peak and I have over 70% ratio to off peak.  If I was just 20% then it would be going up and I would be better with another supplier but it would still not be right to go single rate.

You are lucky.

But the report and the 7.6% is an average. 

Edit 2"And whilst you have seen a drop, others have seen others quote upto 18% increases in off peak rates.  My own up 11.1%, so year ave 9.8%, winter over 10.5%."

And whilst E7 users can switch more freely, the fact is millions never have, and probably never will.

Including many poor and the elderly - and amongst those disadvantaged by changes.

Edit "And if anything the recent history shows that the industry advice to switch for cheapest deals is a failed model. Look" at the chaos over the last year as the companies many switched to failed.  Meaning all electric users now pay SofLR penalties for the false discounts given to many of those who switched.

The same price rises are occurring on other RMI dual rate legacy tariffs - like E10 - who cannot so easily move - without downside risks.

As their heating system - older generation NSH included - really aren't that good on E7 for many users (either overly hot in am or cold in evenings etc).  And would cost £1000s to replace.

A problem my neighbour had, when thought E7s lower off peak rates were going to work out better for them.