What's the line for diesel / petrol?

Grumpy_chap

Ditzy_Mitzy said:

macman said:

Above comment is spot-on. The only possible ULEZ change in the next 5 years or so is the upgrading of the petrol car compliancy from Euro 4 to Euro 5. The oldest compliant Euro 4 cars will then be around 20 years old.
Since the average vehicle life expectancy is about 14 years, not many of those will be left.

I can't see any point in doing that.  The Euro 4 and 5 emissions standards for petrol cars are virtually identical, bar a slight cut in the NOX limit.  

Because they need to raise money.
ULEZ is all about money and not air quality.
As per the TFL website "More than four out of five vehicles already meet the emissions standards"
https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/ultra-low-emission-zone/ulez-expansion-2023

Consequently, introducing ULEZ won't make much difference to air quality.  Those vehicles that are non-compliant are either nearing end of life and will go soon anyway, or are some edge case that does a very low mileage (occasional use camper van / OAP doing 2 miles to the shops once a week).

akira181

Goudy said:

Modern diesels tend to be more expensive to repair full stop.

As for a diesel engine lasting longer than a petrol, most cars that rack up record mileages tend to be petrol.
In fact, Hybrids can do some mega mileages with easy as their engines tyically run an Atkinson cycle and are never really stressed.
Your mini cabbers just aren't using diesels any more, they are using Prius and the likes for good reason.

I've had limited experience with petrol cars but having owned four 8-15 year old, 100k+ mile diesel cars in the last 10 years or so, I've never had any major engine issues bar a leaking water pump in a VW Passat and a faulty glow plug in a Seat Ibiza, which weren't particularly expensive.

A friend of mine had a 4 year old Polo TSI and the piston failed, requiring new engine after only 34k miles. Then he had an Octavia and the clutch gave up at 64k. Also a Civic with undiagnosed electrical gremlins. All petrol, doesn't drive particularly hard, and low years/miles.

It's probably luck of the draw but in my experience, diesels engines seem more durable. Parts might be a bit more expensive but it's generally the body of the car has issues before the engine does and labour costs are the bulk of mechanic bills anyhow.

Not sure where you're from but the vast majority of taxi's in Glasgow are diesel Skoda's or VWs. Most of the black cabs haven't swapped over to the new electric models yet either. Very occasionally you see a full electric taxi but I can't remember the last time I saw a hybrid one. ULEZ only started recently though so that might change soon

Goudy

The luck of the draw has gone.

The answer to what is in store for diesels has already been answered.
Can you buy a new Ibiza diesel, Fiesta, Focus or Puma diesel, Corsa diesel, Polo diesel, Clio diesel, Yaris diesel, Sportage diesel or Qashqai diesel?

Out of the list of top ten best sellers in the UK it looks like the Golf is the only one that is still offered with a diesel engine.

At one point some were on the list because they offered a diesel and they all did offer a diesel version until recently.
Now their diesels have been mostly dropped from the line ups and more will follow.

They are now all either petrol and petrol hybrids with perhaps one model that's available as a full EV.

Ok, you can still buy a used diesel and if you bought a later euro 6 you're not likely to get banned from the roads anytime soon, but you really don't have too.
The big advantages of diesels are no longer only available with a diesel, in fact you can still have those advantages without the drawbacks diesels now come with.

akira181

Goudy said:

The luck of the draw has gone.

The answer to what is in store for diesels has already been answered.
Can you buy a new Ibiza diesel, Fiesta, Focus or Puma diesel, Corsa diesel, Polo diesel, Clio diesel, Yaris diesel, Sportage diesel or Qashqai diesel?

Out of the list of top ten best sellers in the UK it looks like the Golf is the only one that is still offered with a diesel engine.

At one point some were on the list because they offered a diesel and they all did offer a diesel version until recently.
Now their diesels have been mostly dropped from the line ups and more will follow.

They are now all either petrol and petrol hybrids with perhaps one model that's available as a full EV.

Ok, you can still buy a used diesel and if you bought a later euro 6 you're not likely to get banned from the roads anytime soon, but you really don't have too.
The big advantages of diesels are no longer only available with a diesel, in fact you can still have those advantages without the drawbacks diesels now come with.

Luck of the draw very much exists when buying a second hand car, especially if it's a private sale. I saw a Golf with 60k miles on the clock from a dealer the last week but the service book said it was last serviced at 84k miles and drove like it had done at least 150k. A work colleague bought a 2020 A class from Cinch, had their mechanic look over it, and promptly returned it due to an undisclosed crash repair that was apparently done poorly. Now imagine if these issues were not so obvious, i.e. luck of the draw when buying second hand.

I disagree with your opinion on diesel engines. I'm not committed to diesel and currently looking at petrols as well, but there are plenty of new diesels still being made. Audi, BMW, Seat, VW, Skoda, Peugeot, Ford (yes, you can get a 2023 Focus Diesel and they stopped Fiesta in all it's forms), etc all still offer 2023 models with a diesel power unit. Don't matter much to me though cause I wouldn't buy a brand new car even if I could afford it.

The advantages of a diesel are still advantages and petrol isn't without it's own drawbacks either. Yeah petrols have gotten more efficient and can return 50+mpg but so have diesels, returning 65-70+mpg and much better torque low down the revs.

But lets be realistic, diesel isn't going to disappear before petrol. All ICE engines, hybrids included, are going to fade around the same time. The governments decision to ban sales of all new ICE cars in 2030 (hybrid 2035) isn't specific to one hydrocarbon fuel type or another.

Herzlos

diesel sales are down massively (~50%), so it could virtually disappear from the used market and then new market as no-one is going to be designing many diesels into new model ranges.

CoastingHatbox

I'm not really pro-petrol/anti-diesel or vice versa, having one of each.

Not only have cars become much more complicated, with vast arrays of sensors, but increasingly you have to plug in a computer  to tell an ECU the vehicle has a new battery or even to change the brake shoes.

Many petrols now have variable vane turbo chargers, variable-valve timing, variable-valve lift, high pressure fuel pumps, two sets of injectors, manifolds with solonoids to change the air flow in order and that's just the things I know about. And that's before adding stop-start, regenerative breaking etc..

Hyper-miling I can get 70 mpg out of the diesel van all day long. It would be closer to 75 mpg if I removed the roof rack and aerial.
The petrol car of similar weight with lower Cd and no external adornments bolted to it, 55 mpg.

Truth be told, we need to kick the personal motorised transport habit and start rebuilding society around the notion of having all the places we need to regularly travel placed more locally.

akira181

Herzlos said:

diesel sales are down massively (~50%), so it could virtually disappear from the used market and then new market as no-one is going to be designing many diesels into new model ranges.

The average model lifecycle is around 6 to 8 years before the next generation comes out, with a facelift in around 3. As it stands, there's 7 years before sales of new ICE cars are banned. So 2023/24 is most likely the last year of new ICE models with maybe a minor facelift before 2030 if tooling and design isn't cost prohibitive.

All companies will be diverting investment from ICE and vehicle platform R&D into EV platforms soon, if not already. Minimal investment is going to be put into hybrids as an additional 5 years isn't going to offer great returns on investment and little long term gain. Diesel sales are down around 50%, petrol down 20%. The end of ICE is in sight and the gap between diesel and petrol fading out is going to be virtually negligible in my view.

Either the charging network needs to get significantly better in the next 7-10 years or a major breakthrough in battery technology needs to happen, otherwise the reports of 20 Tesla's waiting 4 to 6 hours to charge will be a common sight and not just during the festive period.

CoastingHatbox said:

Truth be told, we need to kick the personal motorised transport habit and start rebuilding society around the notion of having all the places we need to regularly travel placed more locally.

I believe the places people travel most regularly to are supermarkets, schools, and work. Schools and supermarkets are as local as they can be. I wouldn't own a car if I didn't need it to commute to work but places of employment, particularly industry, needs to remain in industrial areas. The car club schemes are more than sufficient for weekend motoring needs and I can rent a modern one for longer road trips, which would still work out cheaper than owning a car.

However, I live in the city and my office is in a fairly large industrial area just on the outskirts. It takes me 30 minutes to drive one way. Public transport would require either 3 buses or 2 buses and 1 train, take 2 hours one way assuming all the connections line up, and cost virtually the same as fuel. Glasgow's biggest problem is that public transport is absolutely awful and all the council want to do is build cycle lanes that don't go anywhere useful and are rarely used as a result (rainfall on average 170 days a year, I wonder why...)

Anyhow, to bring this thread back on topic, it seems like the consensus is that a modern petrol engine can return respectable MPGs, and while not as high as diesels, it's enough that the cost is negligible unless you're doing super high (15k+?) motorway miles every year.

Money_Grabber13579

akira181 said:

Herzlos said:

diesel sales are down massively (~50%), so it could virtually disappear from the used market and then new market as no-one is going to be designing many diesels into new model ranges.

The average model lifecycle is around 6 to 8 years before the next generation comes out, with a facelift in around 3. As it stands, there's 7 years before sales of new ICE cars are banned. So 2023/24 is most likely the last year of new ICE models with maybe a minor facelift before 2030 if tooling and design isn't cost prohibitive.

Remember that cars aren’t designed specifically for the UK market and the UK is one of the first countries to introduce a ban. So ICE are likely to continue being developed after 23/24 and perhaps even after 2030 as well - they just won’t be available in the UK.

akira181

Money_Grabber13579 said:

Remember that cars aren’t designed specifically for the UK market and the UK is one of the first countries to introduce a ban. So ICE are likely to continue being developed after 23/24 and perhaps even after 2030 as well - they just won’t be available in the UK.

The EU are also banning ICE in 2035, with China, Japan, Australia, and US indicating they're going to make the same or similar commitment (some Chinese and US states already have iirc). Even if development did continue to 2030 or after, I think it's highly unlikely for them to make it to the UK market as research and purchase of tooling to make right hand drive variants will be unprofitable in a soon-to-be-gone market.

Ford, Audi, Mercedes, Renault, Jaguar, General Motors, Land Rover, Volvo and many others have committed to stop launching new models by 2030, so if there isn't a new model in the next year or two, it's unlikely there will be. That's assuming if there's any more development at all, for example, Nissan who haven't agreed to stop producing ICE cars have already stopped all Euro engine development on the grounds of it being unprofitable.

Herzlos

Market forces could pretty much wipe out ICE car sales before the official ban, as more and more vehicles are only available in battery form and that trend is unlikely to reverse. Why would any car manufacturer spend money on new ICE tech if they'll barely sell any in their next generation?

That's not to say some won't keep ICE models going, but the next 5 years will probably be the last of ICE models being announced outside niche stuff.