Am I Silly to buy a petrol or diesel car now, to hold for the next 5yrs+?

seatbeltnoob

macman said:

seatbeltnoob said:

macman said:

I see no evidence that residuals will 'fall off a cliff' after 2030. ICE vehicles after that date can continue to be driven until they reach the end of their natural lives, and, if built from now onwards are likely to be clean enough to pass any future ULEZ standards. With more EV's on the road, air quality should improve, even with a proportion of 'dirty' ICE cars still on the road. So ULEZ zones may become irrelevant in time.
The only unknown is what might happen to fuel prices, both in terms of the world price for oil, and what increase in fuel duty the govt might impose once the tipping point has been reached for the no. of EV's on the roads, and the need to decide how to replace the missing £26bn in fuel duty. 
Servicing, spares and repairs to ICE cars will probably get proportionally more expensive as their numbers dwindle, with EV's requiring far less maintenance. 
There is sufficient capacity in the grid to deal with overnight charging, which will account for the bulk of demand.

yas, driving a 20 year car now.

So carry on driving it. You don't nee to be concerned about ULEZ unless you intend to drive within the zone. 
Yes, there are a few cars on the road that are 20 years old or more, but  they are in a tiny minority and that can't determine policy for the majority.
Cars of that vintage tend to be low mileage anyway.

I live in ulez and my 20 year old car complies, it meets euro 4 (petrol)

Herzlos

Grumpy_chap said:

macman said:

So carry on driving it. You don't nee to be concerned about ULEZ unless you intend to drive within the zone. 
Yes, there are a few cars on the road that are 20 years old or more, but  they are in a tiny minority and that can't determine policy for the majority.
Cars of that vintage tend to be low mileage anyway.

I am also currently using a >20yo car (25 yo actually).
I live in the area that is being drawn into the ULEZ zone, so knackered there.

My FiL drives a 2014 diesel, also lives in the future ULEZ zone so also knackered.

I agree with your comment that the cars are a small number and generally driven fewer miles.  However, presumably, the cars that are caught can't be that small a minority as there has been a massive investment to catch them and apply a charge.  If the numbers of vehicles were that small, then they could be allowed to just dwindle out with time.
Although I agree with you, we could both be wrong.

I suspect they want to make it much stricter, but need to set the bar pretty low in order to keep people from getting too upset.

macman

I believe that TFL are claiming that there is already 82% compliancy in the expanded zone. Though quite how they can measure this before the cameras are actually installed and activated is rather beyond me.

Grumpy_chap

macman said:

I believe that TFL are claiming that there is already 82% compliancy in the expanded zone. Though quite how they can measure this before the cameras are actually installed and activated is rather beyond me.

I assume they mean 82% of vehicles with registered keeper in the area are compliant.
That would not be unduly surprising - it is petrol cars from 2004 and diesel cars from late 2015

SHEILA54

My daughter owns a diesel car which does not meet ULEZ requirements.  She lives inside the M25 so will have to pay the charge form next August but the car is old and probably needs replacing.  She is on working tax credit and child tax credit so will she be able to claim the £2000 scrappage from the end of January?  Also the Car is due an MOT in 3 weeks time and may ned some work to get it through so it is a case of working out what to do as she is paying off a loan already and doesn't have much spare cash.  I will put in a bit if she gets the scrappage but I can't afford lots myself

Thanks

Herzlos

SHEILA54 said:

My daughter owns a diesel car which does not meet ULEZ requirements.  She lives inside the M25 so will have to pay the charge form next August but the car is old and probably needs replacing.  She is on working tax credit and child tax credit so will she be able to claim the £2000 scrappage from the end of January?  Also the Car is due an MOT in 3 weeks time and may ned some work to get it through so it is a case of working out what to do as she is paying off a loan already and doesn't have much spare cash.  I will put in a bit if she gets the scrappage but I can't afford lots myself

Thanks

It sounds like it, though you need to apply and get approval first, then scrap it, submit the certification of destruction and then get paid, so it could mean going a few weeks without the car.

How much is the car worth?

Grumpy_chap

The full rules of the ULEZ scrappage scheme are here:
https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/terms-and-conditions/car-and-motorcycle-scrappage-scheme

That is quite a read and I could not see a simplified version anywhere with the "headline" requirements.

Some parts that seem relevant to the question from @SHEILA54

5.1 - don't scrap the vehicle before TFL say you can
Schedule 1 - lists the eligibility for the individual (qualifying benefits)
Vehicle Eligibility Criteria - insured, MOT, taxed

seatbeltnoob

macman said:

seatbeltnoob said:

macman said:

I see no evidence that residuals will 'fall off a cliff' after 2030. ICE vehicles after that date can continue to be driven until they reach the end of their natural lives, and, if built from now onwards are likely to be clean enough to pass any future ULEZ standards. With more EV's on the road, air quality should improve, even with a proportion of 'dirty' ICE cars still on the road. So ULEZ zones may become irrelevant in time.
The only unknown is what might happen to fuel prices, both in terms of the world price for oil, and what increase in fuel duty the govt might impose once the tipping point has been reached for the no. of EV's on the roads, and the need to decide how to replace the missing £26bn in fuel duty. 
Servicing, spares and repairs to ICE cars will probably get proportionally more expensive as their numbers dwindle, with EV's requiring far less maintenance. 
There is sufficient capacity in the grid to deal with overnight charging, which will account for the bulk of demand.

yas, driving a 20 year car now.

So carry on driving it. You don't nee to be concerned about ULEZ unless you intend to drive within the zone. 
Yes, there are a few cars on the road that are 20 years old or more, but  they are in a tiny minority and that can't determine policy for the majority.
Cars of that vintage tend to be low mileage anyway.

Lot of presumptions. My car is a petrol and is compliant. I live in the ulez zone. It has practically wiped out all non compliant cars from the zone.

seatbeltnoob

There are a lot of ULEZ exemptions scam-like messages floating about. I dont know if there is something in the small print that allows people under economic distress who rely on their old car for work to get an exemption.

It could be a complete scam or some provisions in place that they're exploiting.

macman

seatbeltnoob said:

macman said:

seatbeltnoob said:

macman said:

I see no evidence that residuals will 'fall off a cliff' after 2030. ICE vehicles after that date can continue to be driven until they reach the end of their natural lives, and, if built from now onwards are likely to be clean enough to pass any future ULEZ standards. With more EV's on the road, air quality should improve, even with a proportion of 'dirty' ICE cars still on the road. So ULEZ zones may become irrelevant in time.
The only unknown is what might happen to fuel prices, both in terms of the world price for oil, and what increase in fuel duty the govt might impose once the tipping point has been reached for the no. of EV's on the roads, and the need to decide how to replace the missing £26bn in fuel duty. 
Servicing, spares and repairs to ICE cars will probably get proportionally more expensive as their numbers dwindle, with EV's requiring far less maintenance. 
There is sufficient capacity in the grid to deal with overnight charging, which will account for the bulk of demand.

yas, driving a 20 year car now.

So carry on driving it. You don't nee to be concerned about ULEZ unless you intend to drive within the zone. 
Yes, there are a few cars on the road that are 20 years old or more, but  they are in a tiny minority and that can't determine policy for the majority.
Cars of that vintage tend to be low mileage anyway.

Lot of presumptions. My car is a petrol and is compliant. I live in the ulez zone. It has practically wiped out all non compliant cars from the zone.

What are my presumptions? How do you know it has 'wiped out practically all non compliant cars from the zone'?  Which, of course, was the intended purpose.