Non-partisan mini-budget predictions thread

Millyonare

EthicsGradient said:

Millyonare said:

NedS said:

Millyonare said:

Today's budget is a disaster. As bad as feared.

Tax and axe.

A middle manager on ~£60k is set to pay ~£15k more tax over 5 years.

The war on wealth has just begun 😒

So who would you prefer to see paying for the cost of Covid, furlough and the war in Ukraine? Those with the broadest shoulders should expect to pay more. The more you earn, the more you will pay - that's always been how PAYE tax systems work.

I earn less than half that, and worked throughout Covid in an essential service keeping the country going whilst many were paid to sit at home. Any hope of a decent pay rise has been capped and I will be paying more tax as a result, but we always knew someone would have to pay for the handouts eventually. The time of reckoning has come - time to pay up buttercup.

Need to check the stats.

UK has the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (for 2 years straight), the second-lowest debt in the whole G7, state debt payments are relatively near their lowest levels in the past century, no other major country on Earth is raising major taxes after Covid, many are cutting them.

This is a reckless budget, with a reckless tax raid, shoving the country toward (needless) self-inflicted recession.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the median debt in the G7, compared to GDP (https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm - Germany, France and Canada are smaller), and our "2 year fast growing economy" is because we're recovering from a bigger fall at the start of Covid - take the 3 year figure, which takes us back to pre-covid, and we're 6th out of 7 (Japan is lower - both of us are still below the GDP 3 years ago - Japan 2.4% down, us 0.4% down - from https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=350 ; the other 5 have grown over the 3 years).

I'm not sure what this unrealistic boosterism is meant to achieve on this board.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the second-lowest debt in the G7, compared to GDP.

And our "2 year fast growing economy" is because UK has outgrown all its major G7 rivals in 2021 and again in 2022. Two years in a row. A strong uptrend now.

I'm not sure what this unrealistic defeatism is meant to achieve on this board.

mark_cycling00

Rory Sutherland has an amusing suggestion about HS2. Instead of spending £100billion to reduce the journey time to Birmingham by 30mins, just spend £1billion employing supermodels to walk up and down the aisles serving drinks, and the public would be arguing for the journey time to be even longer...

EthicsGradient

Millyonare said:

EthicsGradient said:

Millyonare said:

NedS said:

Millyonare said:

Today's budget is a disaster. As bad as feared.

Tax and axe.

A middle manager on ~£60k is set to pay ~£15k more tax over 5 years.

The war on wealth has just begun 😒

So who would you prefer to see paying for the cost of Covid, furlough and the war in Ukraine? Those with the broadest shoulders should expect to pay more. The more you earn, the more you will pay - that's always been how PAYE tax systems work.

I earn less than half that, and worked throughout Covid in an essential service keeping the country going whilst many were paid to sit at home. Any hope of a decent pay rise has been capped and I will be paying more tax as a result, but we always knew someone would have to pay for the handouts eventually. The time of reckoning has come - time to pay up buttercup.

Need to check the stats.

UK has the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (for 2 years straight), the second-lowest debt in the whole G7, state debt payments are relatively near their lowest levels in the past century, no other major country on Earth is raising major taxes after Covid, many are cutting them.

This is a reckless budget, with a reckless tax raid, shoving the country toward (needless) self-inflicted recession.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the median debt in the G7, compared to GDP (https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm - Germany, France and Canada are smaller), and our "2 year fast growing economy" is because we're recovering from a bigger fall at the start of Covid - take the 3 year figure, which takes us back to pre-covid, and we're 6th out of 7 (Japan is lower - both of us are still below the GDP 3 years ago - Japan 2.4% down, us 0.4% down - from https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=350 ; the other 5 have grown over the 3 years).

I'm not sure what this unrealistic boosterism is meant to achieve on this board.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the second-lowest debt in the G7, compared to GDP.

And our "2 year fast growing economy" is because UK has outgrown all its major G7 rivals in 2021 and again in 2022. Two years in a row. A strong uptrend now.

I'm not sure what this unrealistic defeatism is meant to achieve on this board.

I've never heard of "countryeconomy.com" before, and they say about their sources:

"Our data are collected in the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, National Statistics Offices, World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, etc.)

We revised our data but users are advised that country data may differ in terms of definitions, data collection methods, population coverage and estimation methods used and the source can change old data to adjust them."

The OECD, on the other hand, is a major organization whose data collection is designed to compare national economies fairly, using the same methods. It is inherently more reliable than "countryeconomy.com".

The UK does not have a "strong uptrend" now; we're starting a recession, with shrinking GDP. We are now the only G7 country with a smaller GDP than Q4 2019: https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/gdp-growth-third-quarter-2022-oecd.htm

The outlook is:

"A sharp downgrade for the UK economy — which is expected to shrink by 0.4 per cent in 2023 and grow by only 0.2 cent in 2024 — is forecast by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Growth is also predicted to flatten out in September 2023.

Germany is the only other G7 country set for a contraction in gross domestic product next year, with a 0.3 per cent drop, the report says.

Italy will see only paltry growth of 0.2 per cent, while the US will eke out 0.5 per cent expansion. GDP is set to rise by 0.6 cent in France, 1 per cent in Canada and 1.8 per cent in Japan."

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2022/11/21/energy-crisis-to-affect-uk-economy-most-among-g7-nations/

Millyonare

EthicsGradient said:

Millyonare said:

EthicsGradient said:

Millyonare said:

NedS said:

Millyonare said:

Today's budget is a disaster. As bad as feared.

Tax and axe.

A middle manager on ~£60k is set to pay ~£15k more tax over 5 years.

The war on wealth has just begun 😒

So who would you prefer to see paying for the cost of Covid, furlough and the war in Ukraine? Those with the broadest shoulders should expect to pay more. The more you earn, the more you will pay - that's always been how PAYE tax systems work.

I earn less than half that, and worked throughout Covid in an essential service keeping the country going whilst many were paid to sit at home. Any hope of a decent pay rise has been capped and I will be paying more tax as a result, but we always knew someone would have to pay for the handouts eventually. The time of reckoning has come - time to pay up buttercup.

Need to check the stats.

UK has the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (for 2 years straight), the second-lowest debt in the whole G7, state debt payments are relatively near their lowest levels in the past century, no other major country on Earth is raising major taxes after Covid, many are cutting them.

This is a reckless budget, with a reckless tax raid, shoving the country toward (needless) self-inflicted recession.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the median debt in the G7, compared to GDP (https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm - Germany, France and Canada are smaller), and our "2 year fast growing economy" is because we're recovering from a bigger fall at the start of Covid - take the 3 year figure, which takes us back to pre-covid, and we're 6th out of 7 (Japan is lower - both of us are still below the GDP 3 years ago - Japan 2.4% down, us 0.4% down - from https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=350 ; the other 5 have grown over the 3 years).

I'm not sure what this unrealistic boosterism is meant to achieve on this board.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the second-lowest debt in the G7, compared to GDP.

And our "2 year fast growing economy" is because UK has outgrown all its major G7 rivals in 2021 and again in 2022. Two years in a row. A strong uptrend now.

I'm not sure what this unrealistic defeatism is meant to achieve on this board.

I've never heard of "countryeconomy.com" before, and they say about their sources:

"Our data are collected in the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, National Statistics Offices, World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, etc.)

We revised our data but users are advised that country data may differ in terms of definitions, data collection methods, population coverage and estimation methods used and the source can change old data to adjust them."

The OECD, on the other hand, is a major organization whose data collection is designed to compare national economies fairly, using the same methods. It is inherently more reliable than "countryeconomy.com".

The UK does not have a "strong uptrend" now; we're starting a recession, with shrinking GDP. We are now the only G7 country with a smaller GDP than Q4 2019: https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/gdp-growth-third-quarter-2022-oecd.htm

The outlook is:

"A sharp downgrade for the UK economy — which is expected to shrink by 0.4 per cent in 2023 and grow by only 0.2 cent in 2024 — is forecast by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Growth is also predicted to flatten out in September 2023.

Germany is the only other G7 country set for a contraction in gross domestic product next year, with a 0.3 per cent drop, the report says.

Italy will see only paltry growth of 0.2 per cent, while the US will eke out 0.5 per cent expansion. GDP is set to rise by 0.6 cent in France, 1 per cent in Canada and 1.8 per cent in Japan."

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2022/11/21/energy-crisis-to-affect-uk-economy-most-among-g7-nations/

Have another G7 debt source, from the IMF and UN. The UK is no.2 best.

Two years straight at the very summit of the G7 GDP growth rankings is a strong uptrend. You cannot do more than be no.1.

The post illustrates perfectly the entire point... UK today has low-G7 debt and a best-in-G7 GDP uptrend... but the irresistible urge to "forecast" a relentless doom-loop of future decline is embedded in our national psyche. We love to predict misery. We don't care if it is wrong. Brexit was going to cause a mega recession in 2017 (it didn't). Covid was going to cause a mega house crash in 2021 (it didn't). We're now in the hysteria of temporary Covid inflation causing the longest UK recession in a century in 2023 (it won't). The OBR quietly manipulated its debt definition for the budget to magically turn a previous debt surplus into a huge deficit by 2027-8 (it won't). Example after example of forecasted misery and hysteria. We cannot help ourselves!

Short version = we revel in talking down the future UK.

It is (very) bizarre behaviour 😕

cricidmuslibale

mark_cycling00 said:

Rory Sutherland has an amusing suggestion about HS2. Instead of spending £100billion to reduce the journey time to Birmingham by 30mins, just spend £1billion employing supermodels to walk up and down the aisles serving drinks, and the public would be arguing for the journey time to be even longer...

These days you would have to have at least approximately an equal number of male and female supermodels, they would have to come from a fair number of diverse ethnic, cultural and/or religious backgrounds, and a fair few of them would have to be from the LGBTQ+ community in order to counter any accusations of sexual, racial, cultural, religious discrimination, homophobia, transphobia etc. Even then, there would probably be a very significant number of people (not just passengers), human rights campaigners, politicians and leading figures in the media complaining vociferously and regularly that using supermodels in this way was offensive because it was reducing drinks waiters to sexual objects of desire.

It's not the 1970s or 1980s anymore!

sevenhills

Millyonare said:

EthicsGradient said:

Millyonare said:

NedS said:

Millyonare said:

Today's budget is a disaster. As bad as feared.

Tax and axe.

A middle manager on ~£60k is set to pay ~£15k more tax over 5 years.

The war on wealth has just begun 😒

So who would you prefer to see paying for the cost of Covid, furlough and the war in Ukraine? Those with the broadest shoulders should expect to pay more. The more you earn, the more you will pay - that's always been how PAYE tax systems work.

I earn less than half that, and worked throughout Covid in an essential service keeping the country going whilst many were paid to sit at home. Any hope of a decent pay rise has been capped and I will be paying more tax as a result, but we always knew someone would have to pay for the handouts eventually. The time of reckoning has come - time to pay up buttercup.

Need to check the stats.

UK has the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (for 2 years straight), the second-lowest debt in the whole G7, state debt payments are relatively near their lowest levels in the past century, no other major country on Earth is raising major taxes after Covid, many are cutting them.

This is a reckless budget, with a reckless tax raid, shoving the country toward (needless) self-inflicted recession.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the median debt in the G7, compared to GDP (https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm - Germany, France and Canada are smaller), and our "2 year fast growing economy" is because we're recovering from a bigger fall at the start of Covid - take the 3 year figure, which takes us back to pre-covid, and we're 6th out of 7 (Japan is lower - both of us are still below the GDP 3 years ago - Japan 2.4% down, us 0.4% down - from https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=350 ; the other 5 have grown over the 3 years).

I'm not sure what this unrealistic boosterism is meant to achieve on this board.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the second-lowest debt in the G7, compared to GDP.

And our "2 year fast growing economy" is because UK has outgrown all its major G7 rivals in 2021 and again in 2022. Two years in a row. A strong uptrend now.

I'm not sure what this unrealistic defeatism is meant to achieve on this board.

The debt figures from that website are different from the Governments own figures.

MK62

Millyonare said:

EthicsGradient said:

Millyonare said:

EthicsGradient said:

Millyonare said:

NedS said:

Millyonare said:

Today's budget is a disaster. As bad as feared.

Tax and axe.

A middle manager on ~£60k is set to pay ~£15k more tax over 5 years.

The war on wealth has just begun 😒

So who would you prefer to see paying for the cost of Covid, furlough and the war in Ukraine? Those with the broadest shoulders should expect to pay more. The more you earn, the more you will pay - that's always been how PAYE tax systems work.

I earn less than half that, and worked throughout Covid in an essential service keeping the country going whilst many were paid to sit at home. Any hope of a decent pay rise has been capped and I will be paying more tax as a result, but we always knew someone would have to pay for the handouts eventually. The time of reckoning has come - time to pay up buttercup.

Need to check the stats.

UK has the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (for 2 years straight), the second-lowest debt in the whole G7, state debt payments are relatively near their lowest levels in the past century, no other major country on Earth is raising major taxes after Covid, many are cutting them.

This is a reckless budget, with a reckless tax raid, shoving the country toward (needless) self-inflicted recession.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the median debt in the G7, compared to GDP (https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm - Germany, France and Canada are smaller), and our "2 year fast growing economy" is because we're recovering from a bigger fall at the start of Covid - take the 3 year figure, which takes us back to pre-covid, and we're 6th out of 7 (Japan is lower - both of us are still below the GDP 3 years ago - Japan 2.4% down, us 0.4% down - from https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=350 ; the other 5 have grown over the 3 years).

I'm not sure what this unrealistic boosterism is meant to achieve on this board.

Well, if we do check the stats, we find that the UK has the second-lowest debt in the G7, compared to GDP.

And our "2 year fast growing economy" is because UK has outgrown all its major G7 rivals in 2021 and again in 2022. Two years in a row. A strong uptrend now.

I'm not sure what this unrealistic defeatism is meant to achieve on this board.

I've never heard of "countryeconomy.com" before, and they say about their sources:

"Our data are collected in the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, National Statistics Offices, World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, etc.)

We revised our data but users are advised that country data may differ in terms of definitions, data collection methods, population coverage and estimation methods used and the source can change old data to adjust them."

The OECD, on the other hand, is a major organization whose data collection is designed to compare national economies fairly, using the same methods. It is inherently more reliable than "countryeconomy.com".

The UK does not have a "strong uptrend" now; we're starting a recession, with shrinking GDP. We are now the only G7 country with a smaller GDP than Q4 2019: https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/gdp-growth-third-quarter-2022-oecd.htm

The outlook is:

"A sharp downgrade for the UK economy — which is expected to shrink by 0.4 per cent in 2023 and grow by only 0.2 cent in 2024 — is forecast by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Growth is also predicted to flatten out in September 2023.

Germany is the only other G7 country set for a contraction in gross domestic product next year, with a 0.3 per cent drop, the report says.

Italy will see only paltry growth of 0.2 per cent, while the US will eke out 0.5 per cent expansion. GDP is set to rise by 0.6 cent in France, 1 per cent in Canada and 1.8 per cent in Japan."

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2022/11/21/energy-crisis-to-affect-uk-economy-most-among-g7-nations/

Have another G7 debt source, from the IMF and UN. The UK is no.2 best.

....this figure of 80.7% directly contradicts (by a large margin) the UK govt's own ONS' latest figure, which suggests

UK general government gross debt was £2,436.7 billion at the end of Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022, equivalent to 101.9% of gross domestic product (GDP).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/june2022

It's quite a discrepancy.......which possibly suggests the use of old data, different methodology, or error (in one or both).....(not an exhaustive list)

talexuser

One person's "talking down the economy" becomes another person's "unjustified boosterism" 

plumb1_2

cricidmuslibale said:

It's not the 1970s or 1980s anymore!

Sadly that’s true, it’s a case of who shouts the loudest and how much disruption they cause now a days. And what ever 3rd rated celebrities jump on the bandwagon.
Another 20 yrs the country will be run by the producers of Love island.

EdSwippet

plumb1_2 said:

Another 20 yrs the country will be run by the producers of Love island.

And who will probably make a better job of it than the current mob.