Non-partisan mini-budget predictions thread

hallmark

The mini-budget is due next Thursday. If the past is any guide the contents will begin to be leaked from Monday.

Sunak and Hunt (say it quick enough it's almost rhyming slang) have repeatedly said there'll be "eye-wateringly painful decisions".  So without resorting to partisan viewpoints (what you want to happen or what you think should happen), what do you think will be announced.

Bearing in mind the constant reminders that we must address the debt and that there will be lots of pain, my prediction is that there will be zero reductions in MP's salaries or lavish expenses.

ColdIron

Very non-partisan start

Albermarle

 my prediction is that there will be zero reductions in MP's salaries or lavish expenses.

Considering the average Premier League footballer earns £8 million a year for kicking a ball about, then there could be a good case for increasing MP's relatively modest salaries to a more realistic level for the job (most) of them do.

dunstonh

Bearing in mind the constant reminders that we must address the debt and that there will be lots of pain, my prediction is that there will be zero reductions in MP's salaries or lavish expenses.

MPs are woefully underpaid in this country. That is why you either get high net worth individuals at one end or low skilled people at the other.     

hallmark

ColdIron said:

Very non-partisan start

It's an utterly non-partisan start.  I view all MPs as pretty much as bad as each other (read anything I've ever posted).  That's why I'm in favour as as little Government as possible.

westv

So no budget predictions so far then.

ColdIron

I had your 'almost rhyming slang' in mind

hallmark

Albermarle said:

 my prediction is that there will be zero reductions in MP's salaries or lavish expenses.

Considering the average Premier League footballer earns £8 million a year for kicking a ball about, then there could be a good case for increasing MP's relatively modest salaries to a more realistic level for the job (most) of them do.

Thing is, much as I think football is a dull sport, and much as I agree the pay is crazy, the fact is almost none of us could do what even the worst Premiership footballer does.

In contrast, almost any of us could do what most MPs do. You could literally do nothing at all and be better than most purely by doing no harm.

Almost no MPs are there by virtue of integrity, leadership qualities or any real desire to better the lot of their fellow man. Hence you rarely see any policies put in place that will benefit us all in years to come - all you get is policies and soundbites that are designed to give the best chance of re-election.

Most MPs get elected because you can put literally anybody in a red/blue rosette in many constituencies and they're guaranteed to win.

Bobziz

dunstonh said:

Bearing in mind the constant reminders that we must address the debt and that there will be lots of pain, my prediction is that there will be zero reductions in MP's salaries or lavish expenses.

MPs are woefully underpaid in this country. That is why you either get high net worth individuals at one end or low skilled people at the other.     

Plenty are high net worth and low skilled too.

hallmark

MP remuneration aside, some other predictions:

£40k pensions contribution limit and 40% topup (for higher rate taxpayers) unchanged 

£20k ISA contribution limit unchanged and no lifetime ban on ISA pots 

Tax free div threshold reduced from 2k to 1k

CGT rate raise in line with Income Tax

CGT allowance per year lowered

Triple-lock on pensions suspended for this year at least

Likewise on benefits

long freezes on income tax and NI thresholds

freeze on foreign aid

less favourable rules for non-doms

and possible joker in the pack: rise to the top rate of income tax

ColdIron

I agree with all of the above (in a thoroughly non partisan way of course) except for point 3. I would not be surprised to see either 1) the allowance to be removed entirely or 2) the rate to be harmonised with income tax. Dividends have been under attack since 2014 with an ever increasing ratchet on something that had been untaxed for basic rate taxpayers (if we ignore the silly notional credit thing)

I fear this mini budget will be unkind to investors