Non-partisan mini-budget predictions thread

noclaf

Rather selfishly my main concern is on Sal sac and 40% pension tax relief, hoping they don't change that and would be surprised if they did go there....but you just never know. I assume no change to LTA....as a 'halfway house' do wonder if they would consider lowering the LTA further, no idea if it would be a worthwhile measure but am sure.they are considering all the various stealth measures that can be used.

I think sal sacing the pension whilst I can is my primary means to supporting a 'reasonable' retirement (not lavish, just manageable) and having come to the party late in terms of taking advantage of sal sac for the pension I will need a few more years to get to a safe place etc

Millyonare

dunstonh said:

Bearing in mind the constant reminders that we must address the debt and that there will be lots of pain, my prediction is that there will be zero reductions in MP's salaries or lavish expenses.

MPs are woefully underpaid in this country. That is why you either get high net worth individuals at one end or low skilled people at the other.     

MPs can double their base salaries with expense accounts, subsidies, mortgage / rent pay, family assistants, etc. The total pay is better than it looks.

But their base salary is low because of MP oversupply. The UK has more MPs (lower house) and Lords (upper house) per-head than almost any other country on Earth. We're stuffed to the gills with them.

Millyonare

CGT tax = up
Divvy tax = up
Pension tax = up
Income tax (fiscal drag) = up
NI tax = up

Tax on tax on tax on tax on tax.

cricidmuslibale

Millyonare said:

CGT tax = up
Divvy tax = up
Pension tax = up
Income tax (fiscal drag) = up
NI tax = up

Tax on tax on tax on tax on tax.

Well done! You’ve successfully laid out the lyrics for an angry rap track with all that!

Millyonare

cricidmuslibale said:

Millyonare said:

CGT tax = up
Divvy tax = up
Pension tax = up
Income tax (fiscal drag) = up
NI tax = up

Tax on tax on tax on tax on tax.

Well done! You’ve successfully laid out the lyrics for an angry rap track with all that!

😄

War on wealth... not good for health... max the tax... vampire squid... pickpocket for yer quid... 🤘

hallmark

Going back to the whole non-partisan and all-MPs-are-useless theme, it's a shame it's impossible to treat any subject like adults anymore.

Specifically, if we had 650 adults in charge, instead of 650 power-hungry narcissists, the Tories could have said

"clearly manifesto commitments to not raising income tax, NI or VAT were made prior to Covid and the ruinously expensive policy of lockdown.  Therefore we're chucking those in the bin."

Labour in turn, could have replied "we fully supported lockdown, so that's fair enough".

But we don't have that, so instead we have the Tories desperately scrabbling around raising everything EXCEPT those (like there's any difference in practice to most people - £50 billion of extra tax is gonna be felt however they do it).  And however they do it, Labour will attack them.

The whole lot of them are worthless and has been pointed out, 650 is way too many.  About 650 too many in my opinion but i'm willing to compromise. Lets start by abolishing the House Of Lords.

ColdIron

I didn't hold out much hope for the non-partisan nature of this thread given how it started. So I'm out before it becomes a predictable bun fight

Albermarle

Specifically, if we had 650 adults in charge, instead of 650 power-hungry narcissists, the Tories could have said
"clearly manifesto commitments to not raising income tax, NI or VAT were made prior to Covid and the ruinously expensive policy of lockdown.  Therefore we're chucking those in the bin."
Labour in turn, could have replied "we fully supported lockdown, so that's fair enough".

The problem is that when politicians tell the unvarnished truth to the voters, they tend to get turfed out.

The public has unrealistic expectations ( less tax and more public services at the same time) and the politicians are forced into this game of clouding the issue all the time. This guy had it about right.

The eighteenth century political philosopher, Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821), once remarked that “people get the government they deserve.” In other words, when we look at our leaders we are really looking at our own reflection in a mirror, especially in a democracy, where leaders are elected into office by the people they lead.

talexuser

I find it hard to understand how we have gone from a position of Osbourne austerity went too far and was self defeating which was widely said until recently, to now we need the same again. But then I don't understand Kwarteng saying his budget was not responsible for the present situation.

dunstonh

talexuser said:

I find it hard to understand how we have gone from a position of Osbourne austerity went too far and was self defeating which was widely said until recently, to now we need the same again. But then I don't understand Kwarteng saying his budget was not responsible for the present situation.

That period wasnt real austerity.  It was austerity in name only.   They announced things then backtracked or delayed.  There were cuts but they were not at a level to genuinely be classed as austerity.