Non-partisan mini-budget predictions thread

NedS

dunstonh said:

Millyonare said:

Today's budget is a disaster. As bad as feared.

Tax and axe.

A middle manager on ~£60k is set to pay ~£15k more tax over 5 years.

The war on wealth has just begun 😒

A company owner on a similar amount is around £5000 a year worse off just from Corp tax and dividend changes.

and how about if they choose to pay themselves by PAYE instead of by dividends?

Prism

Millyonare said:

dunstonh said:

Millyonare said:

Today's budget is a disaster. As bad as feared.

Tax and axe.

A middle manager on ~£60k is set to pay ~£15k more tax over 5 years.

The war on wealth has just begun 😒

A company owner on a similar amount is around £5000 a year worse off just from Corp tax and dividend changes.

Ouch.

The red Tories have just taxed themselves out of power in 2024.

I reckon what they have done is give themselves a slim chance of staying in power. Previously there was no chance

talexuser

An example of fiscal drag puts it into perspective:

At an individual level, if a person is making £51,000 and receives an annual pay rise of 3%, without adjusting personal allowances and thresholds to take account of inflation they will have paid an additional £8,632 in income tax after the six years, with their annual tax bill rising from £8,444 this year to £11,791 in the 2027-28 tax year, according to the advisory firm Blick Rothenberg.

MK62

I would point out that the allowance/threshold freeze isn't new, it's already policy, and has been since April 2021........it wasn't introduced today, it was just extended........the "fiscal drag" was already happening, and would continue to happen for the next 3 years even if there had been no Autumn Statement today.....on this point, the only change the Autumn Statement made was to extend this policy for a further 2 years......

sevenhills

talexuser said:

Personally I would not complain about more tax if I could see benefits in no food banks needed, no homeless on the streets, burglary and car crime actually prosecuted, pot holes repaired etc, but it all just seems to get worse not better.

We all want to live in a country with good public services, they should be cutting handouts instead of the NHS, police and local authorities.

Millyonare

MK62 said:

I would point out that the allowance/threshold freeze isn't new, it's already policy, and has been since April 2021........it wasn't introduced today, it was just extended........the "fiscal drag" was already happening, and would continue to happen for the next 3 years even if there had been no Autumn Statement today.....on this point, the only change the Autumn Statement made was to extend this policy for a further 2 years......

Yup, it's "only" a bit of fiscal drag here, a bit of drag there, a little tweak on the % over there... Before you know it, we're up to the highest tax burden since WW2...

sevenhills

MA260 said:

The Living wage is rising to £10.42 per an hour. This would mean someone on full week would be earning over 20K per Year. There will be a lot of people who will now be affected by the minimum wage increase that were just 3/4 years ago well above it, even though they will have received average salary increases in the meantime. How does anyone see this affecting the labour market given smaller pay differentials on these salary levels, especially given the 32% tax on earnings at this level meaning a lot more people will be earning similar amounts . For instance someone 3/4 years ago would have been earning say 3-4K less than another person , but this gap likely to be closed to a much smaller amount. 

Also Public sector pay levels such as in Health are going to be a lot lower than 10%. Might they come under more staffing pressure for people content to earn slightly less money outside the sector with smaller differentials in pay?

It doesn't help that my local authority employer gave us a £2,000 across the board pay rise. The numbers of low paid workers means the deal was accepted. But large pay rises affect local authority badly. But this is around inflation.
Local authorities should be allowed to increase council tax inline with inflation, without a referendum. Rather strange to limit them to 3%, did they believe inflation would never be high again, when that target was set?

MK62

Millyonare said:

MK62 said:

I would point out that the allowance/threshold freeze isn't new, it's already policy, and has been since April 2021........it wasn't introduced today, it was just extended........the "fiscal drag" was already happening, and would continue to happen for the next 3 years even if there had been no Autumn Statement today.....on this point, the only change the Autumn Statement made was to extend this policy for a further 2 years......

Yup, it's "only" a bit of fiscal drag here, a bit of drag there, a little tweak on the % over there... Before you know it, we're up to the highest tax burden since WW2...

....but you're the one saying everything is rosy and it's all hysteria.......better be careful in case you talk us into a recession.....

Bobziz

High tax levels don't seem to be doing Denmark any harm. Fantastic public services, higher per capita productivity, better average salaries.

fizio

Overall it was a pretty well balanced budget given the constraints. Bottom end ‘looked after’, middle ‘squeezed’, well off ‘squeezed more’..  freezing and reducing various allowances doing most of the hard work.. Some areas could have been done differently but mostly at the margins..
My vote heading back towards tory’s after a 7 year absence