How many Energy Suppliers Will Survive?

fergie_

Despite the complete lack of competition and general inability to switch suppliers, how many domestic gas and electric billing companies are we currently down to?

What ones do we think will still be here next year and what happens after that?

QrizB

fergie_ said:

Despite the complete lack of competition and general inability to switch suppliers, how many domestic gas and electric billing companies are we currently down to?

Actively trading, 20 or so?

What ones do we think will still be here next year and what happens after that?

If the Gov't apply the current rules, they'll almost all survive.
If they try getting creative, they might all fail.

Vincero

Yep, if the government were to apply rules like in France I could see some being sacrificed or brought under government control like bulb - I suspect there would be several legal cases brought against the government, as is the case with EDF in France.

More worryingly could be potential mergers of some of the big-6 - I suspect whilst the competition watchdog may raise some concerns, if the company survival was at stake then I expect the mergers would be allowed.
Although there is no real competition at the moment, reducing the number of players is not a way to bring it back - even now I expect if one can get one over on a competitor they will gladly do so.

wrf12345

You can have one company but very highly regulated with salary caps, no dividends and a very tight relationship to the wholesale price of gas and electric forcing unusual efficiency and honesty on the industry. You could use national grid to buy gas and electric in bulk and sell directly to the consumer, eliminating a whole sector of the industry, You could use the govn owned energy company to set lower prices but only allow new customers by invitation, using the work and pensions database to invite those on the lowest household income first, So far both the regulator and govn has shown no intelligent thought on the matter, more like headless chickens...

[Deleted User]

Vincero said:

Yep, if the government were to apply rules like in France I could see some being sacrificed or brought under government control like bulb - I suspect there would be several legal cases brought against the government, as is the case with EDF in France.

More worryingly could be potential mergers of some of the big-6 - I suspect whilst the competition watchdog may raise some concerns, if the company survival was at stake then I expect the mergers would be allowed.
Although there is no real competition at the moment, reducing the number of players is not a way to bring it back - even now I expect if one can get one over on a competitor they will gladly do so.

Please God - no more Special Administrators. The cost of Bulb’s ‘failure’ is forecast to reach £2.4Bn. Octopus Energy the sole interested buyer wants £1Bn to take Bulb’s customer base.

Mstty

All the big well established energy suppliers will survive. 

One reason is below

April 2022 £1971 price cap 2% profit = £39.42 per customer

Oct 2022 £3600 predicted price cap 2% profit £72 per customer

Section62

wrf12345 said:

You can have one company but very highly regulated with salary caps, no dividends and a very tight relationship to the wholesale price of gas and electric forcing unusual efficiency and honesty on the industry. You could use national grid to buy gas and electric in bulk and sell directly to the consumer, eliminating a whole sector of the industry, You could use the govn owned energy company to set lower prices but only allow new customers by invitation, using the work and pensions database to invite those on the lowest household income first, So far both the regulator and govn has shown no intelligent thought on the matter, more like headless chickens...

I'd be very surprised if the government haven't already considered an idea like this and dismissed it.

The idea fails because it assumes the government run company could do things more efficiently and cheaper than other companies. And be more open and honest than others.

The idea of public-sector energy suppliers has been tried, and not worked out very well.

A more efficient way to help those most in need is to use existing systems to give them extra money towards their bills.

artyboy

Mstty said:

All the big well established energy suppliers will survive. 

One reason is below

April 2022 £1971 price cap 2% profit = £39.42 per customer

Oct 2022 £3600 predicted price cap 2% profit £72 per customer

Careful... next we'll have someone starting a new thread insisting that if energy prices can be capped, so should the absolute amount of profit that suppliers can make.

So, does £2.50 per customer sound fair, or are they still being too greedy 

Mobtr

Mstty said:

All the big well established energy suppliers will survive. 

One reason is below

April 2022 £1971 price cap 2% profit = £39.42 per customer

Oct 2022 £3600 predicted price cap 2% profit £72 per customer

Where did you get this information from or is it just made up?

t0rt0ise

Mstty said:

All the big well established energy suppliers will survive. 

One reason is below

April 2022 £1971 price cap 2% profit = £39.42 per customer

Oct 2022 £3600 predicted price cap 2% profit £72 per customer

And think of all the VAT the government is raking in! There's no mention of the extra they've already had when talking about how help is going to be paid for.

michaels

t0rt0ise said:

Mstty said:

All the big well established energy suppliers will survive. 

One reason is below

April 2022 £1971 price cap 2% profit = £39.42 per customer

Oct 2022 £3600 predicted price cap 2% profit £72 per customer

And think of all the VAT the government is raking in! There's no mention of the extra they've already had when talking about how help is going to be paid for.

And think how much extras the gov is paying out to heat hospitals, schools and all those office buildings that Mr Rees-Mogg insists are full every day - I suspect the extra VAT on energy barely makes a dent.