How much longer will this bear market go on for?

masonic

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

My being flat YTD seems to have ruffled a few feathers. 

I'm not only in crypto and cash.

I remember you previously saying that you were heavily invested in Gold, so I imagine you are not being totally honest about being flat YTD

Gold is up 7.5% YTD.

Thats fair enough (I have a gold ETF too), but can we agree that on the same basis the S&P500 is only down around -2.5% YTD

Only another -77.5% to go... over the next 100 days or so.

Type_45

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

My being flat YTD seems to have ruffled a few feathers. 

I'm not only in crypto and cash.

I remember you previously saying that you were heavily invested in Gold, so I imagine you are not being totally honest about being flat YTD

Gold is up 7.5% YTD.

Thats fair enough (I have a gold ETF too), but can we agree that on the same basis the S&P500 is only down around -2.5% YTD

No, we can't.  The S&P500 is down about 19% YTD.

aroominyork

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

My being flat YTD seems to have ruffled a few feathers. 

I'm not only in crypto and cash.

I remember you previously saying that you were heavily invested in Gold, so I imagine you are not being totally honest about being flat YTD

Gold is up 7.5% YTD.

Thats fair enough (I have a gold ETF too), but can we agree that on the same basis the S&P500 is only down around -2.5% YTD

No, we can't.  The S&P500 is down about 19% YTD.

Sorry to say but crazy Type is right. It's only down 2.5% on an unhedged fund. Check a hedged fund which reflects the true value and c.19% is correct.

Prism

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

My being flat YTD seems to have ruffled a few feathers. 

I'm not only in crypto and cash.

I remember you previously saying that you were heavily invested in Gold, so I imagine you are not being totally honest about being flat YTD

Gold is up 7.5% YTD.

Thats fair enough (I have a gold ETF too), but can we agree that on the same basis the S&P500 is only down around -2.5% YTD

No, we can't.  The S&P500 is down about 19% YTD.

Hang on, so you want to price gold in pounds even though the rest of the world prices it in dollars but you don't want to do the same for equities? Make your mind up on a currency

Prism

aroominyork said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

My being flat YTD seems to have ruffled a few feathers. 

I'm not only in crypto and cash.

I remember you previously saying that you were heavily invested in Gold, so I imagine you are not being totally honest about being flat YTD

Gold is up 7.5% YTD.

Thats fair enough (I have a gold ETF too), but can we agree that on the same basis the S&P500 is only down around -2.5% YTD

No, we can't.  The S&P500 is down about 19% YTD.

Sorry to say but crazy Type is right. It's only down 2.5% on an unhedged fund. Check a hedged fund which reflects the true value and c.19% is correct.

My true value isn't in dollars - its in pounds. I imagine that is the case for most UK investors. From my perspective the S&P500 has barely dropped. The fact that it has dropped in dollars is heavily related to the dollar rising in value so why ignore it.

Besides, I'm only bringing this up because they want to ignore the fact that the only reason that gold has done well is because of the dollar. I'm just making things fair

masonic

aroominyork said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

My being flat YTD seems to have ruffled a few feathers. 

I'm not only in crypto and cash.

I remember you previously saying that you were heavily invested in Gold, so I imagine you are not being totally honest about being flat YTD

Gold is up 7.5% YTD.

Thats fair enough (I have a gold ETF too), but can we agree that on the same basis the S&P500 is only down around -2.5% YTD

No, we can't.  The S&P500 is down about 19% YTD.

Sorry to say but crazy Type is right. It's only down 2.5% on an unhedged fund. Check a hedged fund which reflects the true value and c.19% is correct.

A hedged fund doesn't reflect the true value. If you'd bought a GBP hedged fund, you'd have done worse than an American investing their USD in the S&P500. You'd be down nearly 40% when they valued your fund in USD. You'd now own fewer underlying Apple, Microsoft, Amazon... shares than someone who'd invested the same amount into the index.

Either:

• Gold is down 9% YTD and S&P500 is down 19%; or
• Gold is up 7.5% YTD and S&P500 is down 2.5%; or even
• S&P500 is down 10% in oz Gold
  

You can't measure one in GBP and the other in USD. Well you can, but you're being dishonest if you do.

snarffie

masonic said:

aroominyork said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

My being flat YTD seems to have ruffled a few feathers. 

I'm not only in crypto and cash.

I remember you previously saying that you were heavily invested in Gold, so I imagine you are not being totally honest about being flat YTD

Gold is up 7.5% YTD.

Thats fair enough (I have a gold ETF too), but can we agree that on the same basis the S&P500 is only down around -2.5% YTD

No, we can't.  The S&P500 is down about 19% YTD.

Sorry to say but crazy Type is right. It's only down 2.5% on an unhedged fund. Check a hedged fund which reflects the true value and c.19% is correct.

A hedged fund doesn't reflect the true value. If you'd bought a GBP hedged fund, you'd have done worse than an American investing their USD in the S&P500. You'd be down nearly 40% when they valued your fund in USD. You'd now own fewer underlying Apple, Microsoft, Amazon... shares than someone who'd invested the same amount into the index.

Either:

• Gold is down 9% YTD and S&P500 is down 19%; or
• Gold is up 7.5% YTD and S&P500 is down 2.5%; or even
• S&P500 is down 10% in oz Gold
  

You can't measure one in GBP and the other in USD. Well you can, but you're being dishonest if you do.

Absolutely correct, and another illustration of crazyType45’s complete misunderstanding of his own alleged investments.  

Please, please, please take his posts as light entertainment and Do Your Own Research. Just like many of us, he was asking for the most basic investment advice on this board only a year or so ago.  Somehow, he has now become so clued up that he believes that with his raft of experience, it is reasonable for him to posit with total conviction that equities are heading for an 80% crash by the end of the year.

As ever, just be careful not to listen too intently to the trolls and narcissists.

Swipe

Weekly unbiased market bottom update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qs14ULAWa4

Type_45

FedEx warns of a global recession, cutting sales forecast by half a billion dollars

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/16/business/fedex-warning/index.html

masonic

Type_45 said:

FedEx warns of a global recession, cutting sales forecast by half a billion dollars

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/16/business/fedex-warning/index.html

"Shares of FedEx (FDX) plunged 21% Friday — the biggest one-day drop in its history — after the company warned late Thursday that a slowing economy will cause it to fall $500 million short of its revenue target."

Oops, somebody else's fault. I wonder what my postie's view on the global economic outlook is.