How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

Rumours of a ceasefire in Ukraine...

Russia has won, Europe has winter looming and needs energy...

Will likely spur an equities rally...  but is priced in.

masonic

Type_45 said:

Rumours of a ceasefire in Ukraine...

Russia has won, Europe has winter looming and needs energy...

Will likely spur an equities rally...  but is priced in.

The latest rumours I could find suggest quite the opposite: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-hoping-for-a-political-settlement-in-ukraine-stop/

"There’s currently no sign either party seeks a deal, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon."

A ceasefire clearly isn't priced into markets. Markets price in expected outcomes.

Adyinvestment

Type_45 said:

Rumours of a ceasefire in Ukraine...

Russia has won, Europe has winter looming and needs energy...

Will likely spur an equities rally...  but is priced in.

Source? I can't find anything.

sevenhills

Linton said:

The only closures of small businesses in our area I have noticed are a couple which have folded because they were unable to find the staff they needed to continue after Covid.  It is difficult to see a recession happening whilst there is work  to do but not the people to do it.

With high inflation and wages way behind, high interest rates, confidence in spending has a massive effect on our economy.

GSP

sevenhills said:

Linton said:

The only closures of small businesses in our area I have noticed are a couple which have folded because they were unable to find the staff they needed to continue after Covid.  It is difficult to see a recession happening whilst there is work  to do but not the people to do it.

With high inflation and wages way behind, high interest rates, confidence in spending has a massive effect on our economy.

High interest rates? I would have said a base rate of 1.75% is still much too low and will create bubbles that will have to be unwound or corrected.

Rates used to be something like c5% with fluctuations up and down, but were mostly on the move. Here, the past one to two decades of stupidly low rates is going to hurt us the most.

Type_45

GSP said:

sevenhills said:

Linton said:

The only closures of small businesses in our area I have noticed are a couple which have folded because they were unable to find the staff they needed to continue after Covid.  It is difficult to see a recession happening whilst there is work  to do but not the people to do it.

With high inflation and wages way behind, high interest rates, confidence in spending has a massive effect on our economy.

High interest rates? I would have said a base rate of 1.75% is still much too low and will create bubbles that will have to be unwound or corrected.

Rates used to be something like c5% with fluctuations up and down, but were mostly on the move. Here, the past one to two decades of stupidly low rates is going to hurt us the most.

"Will create bubbles"?

We don't have asset bubbles now then?

GSP

Type_45 said:

GSP said:

sevenhills said:

Linton said:

The only closures of small businesses in our area I have noticed are a couple which have folded because they were unable to find the staff they needed to continue after Covid.  It is difficult to see a recession happening whilst there is work  to do but not the people to do it.

With high inflation and wages way behind, high interest rates, confidence in spending has a massive effect on our economy.

High interest rates? I would have said a base rate of 1.75% is still much too low and will create bubbles that will have to be unwound or corrected.

Rates used to be something like c5% with fluctuations up and down, but were mostly on the move. Here, the past one to two decades of stupidly low rates is going to hurt us the most.

"Will create bubbles"?

We don't have asset bubbles now then?

Yep my typo,

”have created bubbles”.

Prism

GSP said:

sevenhills said:

Linton said:

The only closures of small businesses in our area I have noticed are a couple which have folded because they were unable to find the staff they needed to continue after Covid.  It is difficult to see a recession happening whilst there is work  to do but not the people to do it.

With high inflation and wages way behind, high interest rates, confidence in spending has a massive effect on our economy.

High interest rates? I would have said a base rate of 1.75% is still much too low and will create bubbles that will have to be unwound or corrected.

Rates used to be something like c5% with fluctuations up and down, but were mostly on the move. Here, the past one to two decades of stupidly low rates is going to hurt us the most.

They have been low because there has been little inflation - they haven't needed to be high. I don't reckon there is an asset bubble but probably too much debt floating around.

sevenhills

The average worker earning £20,000 with a 5% pay rise will be £1,000 worse off in real terms in 12 months.
Do you think average wage increases will match inflation?

Type_45

sevenhills said:

The average worker earning £20,000 with a 5% pay rise will be £1,000 worse off in real terms in 12 months.
Do you think average wage increases will match inflation?

An average worker is getting a 5% pay rise?