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How much longer will this bear market go on for?
Comments
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masonic said:
What does 'pivot' mean to you? If it means any change at all, then it is a pivot. What is being done isn't a move in the opposite direction, however, which is what I would classify as a pivot in this context.Type_45 said:
Well it looks like a pivot to me.masonic said:Even the UK is not intending to 'pivot'.
They stopped buying. (Did they start selling?)
And then they restarted buying.
It's not a subtle step change. It's a pivot in policy. It really can't be dressed up in any other way.0 -
Type_45 said:masonic said:
What does 'pivot' mean to you? If it means any change at all, then it is a pivot. What is being done isn't a move in the opposite direction, however, which is what I would classify as a pivot in this context.Type_45 said:
Well it looks like a pivot to me.masonic said:Even the UK is not intending to 'pivot'.
They stopped buying. (Did they start selling?)
And then they restarted buying.
It's not a subtle step change. It's a pivot in policy. It really can't be dressed up in any other way.The only thing they started doing was letting their portfolio run down as bonds matured. I've seen nothing to suggest that won't continue. Separately they have made an announcement that they will be temporarily providing liquidity at the long end of the market, only to the extent necessary to stop excessive margin calls on pension funds due to the steep rises in yield they've been subjected to. The mere announcement will have gone a long way to achieving their objective. This is the equivalent of offering to pay for the goods appropriated by your shoplifting friend in the hope the shopkeeper calms down and doesn't press charges.Even if you describe it as a pivot, you can't seriously describe it as a pivot in policy. Their policy is clear, and it will continue, despite them acquiring a new enemy with designs on thwarting their efforts. If you think this is the start of mass QE and interest rates plummeting then you will be disappointed. Work on the short end of the market will continue in earnest. This could be achieved in an overall neutral manner selling from the short end to balance out purchases at the long end - thereby reshaping the yield curve.4 -
masonic said:Type_45 said:masonic said:
What does 'pivot' mean to you? If it means any change at all, then it is a pivot. What is being done isn't a move in the opposite direction, however, which is what I would classify as a pivot in this context.Type_45 said:
Well it looks like a pivot to me.masonic said:Even the UK is not intending to 'pivot'.
They stopped buying. (Did they start selling?)
And then they restarted buying.
It's not a subtle step change. It's a pivot in policy. It really can't be dressed up in any other way.The only thing they started doing was letting their portfolio run down as bonds matured. I've seen nothing to suggest that won't continue. Separately they have made an announcement that they will be temporarily providing liquidity at the long end of the market, only to the extent necessary to stop excessive margin calls on pension funds due to the steep rises in yield they've been subjected to. The mere announcement will have gone a long way to achieving their objective. This is the equivalent of offering to pay for the goods appropriated by your shoplifting friend in the hope the shopkeeper calms down and doesn't press charges.Even if you describe it as a pivot, you can't seriously describe it as a pivot in policy. Their policy is clear, and it will continue, despite them acquiring a new enemy with designs on thwarting their efforts. If you think this is the start of mass QE and interest rates plummeting then you will be disappointed. Work on the short end of the market will continue in earnest. This could be achieved in an overall neutral manner selling from the short end to balance out purchases at the long end - thereby reshaping the yield curve.
Plenty of talk about rate rises. What do you make of that?0 -
Rate rises will need to accelerate. Whether we have an emergency MPC meeting shortly remains to be seen. There are far simpler ways out of this mess...Type_45 said:
Plenty of talk about rate rises. What do you make of that?masonic said:Type_45 said:masonic said:
What does 'pivot' mean to you? If it means any change at all, then it is a pivot. What is being done isn't a move in the opposite direction, however, which is what I would classify as a pivot in this context.Type_45 said:
Well it looks like a pivot to me.masonic said:Even the UK is not intending to 'pivot'.
They stopped buying. (Did they start selling?)
And then they restarted buying.
It's not a subtle step change. It's a pivot in policy. It really can't be dressed up in any other way.The only thing they started doing was letting their portfolio run down as bonds matured. I've seen nothing to suggest that won't continue. Separately they have made an announcement that they will be temporarily providing liquidity at the long end of the market, only to the extent necessary to stop excessive margin calls on pension funds due to the steep rises in yield they've been subjected to. The mere announcement will have gone a long way to achieving their objective. This is the equivalent of offering to pay for the goods appropriated by your shoplifting friend in the hope the shopkeeper calms down and doesn't press charges.Even if you describe it as a pivot, you can't seriously describe it as a pivot in policy. Their policy is clear, and it will continue, despite them acquiring a new enemy with designs on thwarting their efforts. If you think this is the start of mass QE and interest rates plummeting then you will be disappointed. Work on the short end of the market will continue in earnest. This could be achieved in an overall neutral manner selling from the short end to balance out purchases at the long end - thereby reshaping the yield curve.
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masonic said:
Rate rises will need to accelerate. Whether we have an emergency MPC meeting shortly remains to be seen. There are far simpler ways out of this mess...Type_45 said:
Plenty of talk about rate rises. What do you make of that?masonic said:Type_45 said:masonic said:
What does 'pivot' mean to you? If it means any change at all, then it is a pivot. What is being done isn't a move in the opposite direction, however, which is what I would classify as a pivot in this context.Type_45 said:
Well it looks like a pivot to me.masonic said:Even the UK is not intending to 'pivot'.
They stopped buying. (Did they start selling?)
And then they restarted buying.
It's not a subtle step change. It's a pivot in policy. It really can't be dressed up in any other way.The only thing they started doing was letting their portfolio run down as bonds matured. I've seen nothing to suggest that won't continue. Separately they have made an announcement that they will be temporarily providing liquidity at the long end of the market, only to the extent necessary to stop excessive margin calls on pension funds due to the steep rises in yield they've been subjected to. The mere announcement will have gone a long way to achieving their objective. This is the equivalent of offering to pay for the goods appropriated by your shoplifting friend in the hope the shopkeeper calms down and doesn't press charges.Even if you describe it as a pivot, you can't seriously describe it as a pivot in policy. Their policy is clear, and it will continue, despite them acquiring a new enemy with designs on thwarting their efforts. If you think this is the start of mass QE and interest rates plummeting then you will be disappointed. Work on the short end of the market will continue in earnest. This could be achieved in an overall neutral manner selling from the short end to balance out purchases at the long end - thereby reshaping the yield curve.
Raised to what #?0 -
I'm not one for making specific predictions. If I was a voting member of the MPC, I'd be going for 1% rises from here on in.Type_45 said:
Raised to what #?masonic said:
Rate rises will need to accelerate. Whether we have an emergency MPC meeting shortly remains to be seen. There are far simpler ways out of this mess...Type_45 said:
Plenty of talk about rate rises. What do you make of that?masonic said:Type_45 said:masonic said:
What does 'pivot' mean to you? If it means any change at all, then it is a pivot. What is being done isn't a move in the opposite direction, however, which is what I would classify as a pivot in this context.Type_45 said:
Well it looks like a pivot to me.masonic said:Even the UK is not intending to 'pivot'.
They stopped buying. (Did they start selling?)
And then they restarted buying.
It's not a subtle step change. It's a pivot in policy. It really can't be dressed up in any other way.The only thing they started doing was letting their portfolio run down as bonds matured. I've seen nothing to suggest that won't continue. Separately they have made an announcement that they will be temporarily providing liquidity at the long end of the market, only to the extent necessary to stop excessive margin calls on pension funds due to the steep rises in yield they've been subjected to. The mere announcement will have gone a long way to achieving their objective. This is the equivalent of offering to pay for the goods appropriated by your shoplifting friend in the hope the shopkeeper calms down and doesn't press charges.Even if you describe it as a pivot, you can't seriously describe it as a pivot in policy. Their policy is clear, and it will continue, despite them acquiring a new enemy with designs on thwarting their efforts. If you think this is the start of mass QE and interest rates plummeting then you will be disappointed. Work on the short end of the market will continue in earnest. This could be achieved in an overall neutral manner selling from the short end to balance out purchases at the long end - thereby reshaping the yield curve.
0 -
masonic said:
I'm not one for making specific predictions. If I was a voting member of the MPC, I'd be going for 1% rises from here on in.Type_45 said:
Raised to what #?masonic said:
Rate rises will need to accelerate. Whether we have an emergency MPC meeting shortly remains to be seen. There are far simpler ways out of this mess...Type_45 said:
Plenty of talk about rate rises. What do you make of that?masonic said:Type_45 said:masonic said:
What does 'pivot' mean to you? If it means any change at all, then it is a pivot. What is being done isn't a move in the opposite direction, however, which is what I would classify as a pivot in this context.Type_45 said:
Well it looks like a pivot to me.masonic said:Even the UK is not intending to 'pivot'.
They stopped buying. (Did they start selling?)
And then they restarted buying.
It's not a subtle step change. It's a pivot in policy. It really can't be dressed up in any other way.The only thing they started doing was letting their portfolio run down as bonds matured. I've seen nothing to suggest that won't continue. Separately they have made an announcement that they will be temporarily providing liquidity at the long end of the market, only to the extent necessary to stop excessive margin calls on pension funds due to the steep rises in yield they've been subjected to. The mere announcement will have gone a long way to achieving their objective. This is the equivalent of offering to pay for the goods appropriated by your shoplifting friend in the hope the shopkeeper calms down and doesn't press charges.Even if you describe it as a pivot, you can't seriously describe it as a pivot in policy. Their policy is clear, and it will continue, despite them acquiring a new enemy with designs on thwarting their efforts. If you think this is the start of mass QE and interest rates plummeting then you will be disappointed. Work on the short end of the market will continue in earnest. This could be achieved in an overall neutral manner selling from the short end to balance out purchases at the long end - thereby reshaping the yield curve.
Raising rates into a recession (at best) and likely economic collapse.0 -
Type_45 said:masonic said:
I'm not one for making specific predictions. If I was a voting member of the MPC, I'd be going for 1% rises from here on in.Type_45 said:
Raised to what #?masonic said:
Rate rises will need to accelerate. Whether we have an emergency MPC meeting shortly remains to be seen. There are far simpler ways out of this mess...Type_45 said:
Plenty of talk about rate rises. What do you make of that?masonic said:Type_45 said:masonic said:
What does 'pivot' mean to you? If it means any change at all, then it is a pivot. What is being done isn't a move in the opposite direction, however, which is what I would classify as a pivot in this context.Type_45 said:
Well it looks like a pivot to me.masonic said:Even the UK is not intending to 'pivot'.
They stopped buying. (Did they start selling?)
And then they restarted buying.
It's not a subtle step change. It's a pivot in policy. It really can't be dressed up in any other way.The only thing they started doing was letting their portfolio run down as bonds matured. I've seen nothing to suggest that won't continue. Separately they have made an announcement that they will be temporarily providing liquidity at the long end of the market, only to the extent necessary to stop excessive margin calls on pension funds due to the steep rises in yield they've been subjected to. The mere announcement will have gone a long way to achieving their objective. This is the equivalent of offering to pay for the goods appropriated by your shoplifting friend in the hope the shopkeeper calms down and doesn't press charges.Even if you describe it as a pivot, you can't seriously describe it as a pivot in policy. Their policy is clear, and it will continue, despite them acquiring a new enemy with designs on thwarting their efforts. If you think this is the start of mass QE and interest rates plummeting then you will be disappointed. Work on the short end of the market will continue in earnest. This could be achieved in an overall neutral manner selling from the short end to balance out purchases at the long end - thereby reshaping the yield curve.
Raising rates into a recession (at best) and likely economic collapse.
Recession, almost certainly - we're probably there already. Economic collapse, I think not, even despite the best efforts of the chancellor.
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Inducing a recession is now a necessary evil. May as well get on with it, 1.5% in November. Let’s go!4
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A recession of retail investors' portfolios is a necessary evil too.0
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