The big fat Electric Vehicle bashing thread.

grumiofoundation

DB1904 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

Herzlos said:

DB1904 said:

Herzlos said:

I don't mean travelling over 100 miles without stopping is extreme, just that for most people it's not really an issue as they can have a coffee/lunch/explore or whatever. 

I do get that EVs may not be suited to a once a year trek across the country and back (although many EV owners don't find it a problem), but I'm not sure it's that big a deal to that many people given the inconvenience is twice a year. It's also worth noting that many households have multiple cars, so many people have the option of using the other ICE car for the holiday road trip.


As for freedom, people can already live and visit where they want; they just tend to want to live close to work and shop close to home and so on.

I'm not convinced anyone can get 12p/mile out of an ICE car now.  50mpg at £1.50/l is 14p/mile

Explore a motorway services. Are you serious?

Be a bit more imaginative. You can charge places that aren't motorway services, so break road trips up by stopping at nice places whilst you charge. 

After 2 hours sat in a car then a short walk around a lake or beach or whatever will do everyone good. We usually do that when traveling with the kids anyway.

 But most people can’t be imaginative. If your journey is on a bank holiday down the M6 and M5 for example with your family and all and sundry are also on the road you aren’t going to get people taking detours. They need to get from Cumbria to Cornwall or wherever and they aren’t driving miles out of their way with their young kids in tow. So you need an infrastructure to support the weight of motorway traffic when the majority of it is EVs that allows people either far greater range than exists or simply has charging points in sufficient numbers to support the on road traffic in these sorts of peak scenarios. Service stations each need hundreds and hundreds of working charging points. I don’t think that’s contentious or even necessarily the full extent.

Once that happens I think majority EV ownership might become viable. But it’s an infrastructure issue. And as much as you now talk about ‘oh change your route and lifestyle to accommodate it’ that doesn’t work for most people and also doesn’t work as the number of EVs on the road increases. You aren’t going to want hundreds and hundreds of cars pottering off into Warwick cos they need a charge and it’s better to explore. It’s just backing up problems. People need ready charging on route. I think people can sacrifice charging taking half an hour. Over say 10 minutes to fill up. But they can’t be expected to queue for an hour for a charger then hang around another half hour. Doomed to failure without the infrastructure. 

Obviously that is true but the infrastructure wasn't there for petrol to replace horses. Why didn't that fail?


(I'm not arguing that infrastructure doesn't need improving - it does, and improvement is hit and miss).

Will hundreds of chargers actually be needed at each service station in the long term?
New electric cars have not dissimilar ranges to ICE vehicles. So surely electric cars will only need to charge as regularly* as cars fill up. But as you say takes longer if we use 30 minutes versus 10 minutes would mean 3x the number of rapid chargers needed as petrol pumps?  (Having not been through how many petrol pumps does a service station have 10? 20?) 

*will actually be lower than the number of petrol cars needing to fill up since many cars will charge overnight** and some will never/rarely need to use rapid chargers. 

**this infrastructure needs improving/a solution for those w.o. off-street parking - could argue is actually the bigger issue.

I suspect because the introduction of automobiles was very gradual and had time for the infrastructure to catch up. You now have 30 odd million cars on the road and growing….

I think the problem is bigger than you think. Currently on a long journey like that I’d probably fill up at the services after we’d stopped for a half hour lunch and toilet break. So get to services. Bob in for a sandwich, change and toilet the kids. Back into car, top up at station, which I think on a normal day is under 10 minutes, and then off.

That’s 40 minutes break.

I think you could achieve that in an EV only if there is a charger there and ready waiting for you. Which is obviously the challenge. 

Then you have the problem of what happens when you get where you are going. I’m not convinced that if we are staying with the in laws in rural Devon who don’t have ev charging will be happy for us to plug into their wall sockets…

This is the challenge for infrastructure…it’s fine now for early buyers. It becomes less fine unless the infrastructure improves in line with adoption. And we know already it isn’t. 

As I said I'm not arguing with the need for improved infrastructure (it is improving by the way), but I think you are exaggerating the problems with your claim that 'hundreds and hundreds' of chargers are needed at every service station, maybe I am missing something but I don't see why this many will actually be needed. 

Obviously there is not much anyone can do if the ability to charge a car exists cheaply but people don't take advantage (e.g outside 3-pin plug on a separate circuit costs a few hundred pounds - also useful for any other electric items one might use outside).

How many do you think will be needed to cope with weekend holiday traffic?

I don't know exactly but (as I already tried to explain my above) I would think a logical approach to cope with the situation when the same number of cars are electric as are petrol today with similar ranges to petrol cars* would be to take the number of petrol pumps and multiply by the increased time taken to charge versus fill up. 

So let's say number of petrol pumps x 4? x 5? So for a services thats currently needs 16 petrol pumps would be looking at max. of 64-80 chargers.


Note - I would expect this to be an overestimate if anything as this assumes the the need for petrol and electricity is equally met by pumps vs chargers but as already discussed since a % of electric car 're-fueling' can be done at home. 

*new electric cars already have similar range - by the point being discussed electric cars ranges will likely be greater

Thrugelmir

grumiofoundation said:

DB1904 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

Herzlos said:

DB1904 said:

Herzlos said:

I don't mean travelling over 100 miles without stopping is extreme, just that for most people it's not really an issue as they can have a coffee/lunch/explore or whatever. 

I do get that EVs may not be suited to a once a year trek across the country and back (although many EV owners don't find it a problem), but I'm not sure it's that big a deal to that many people given the inconvenience is twice a year. It's also worth noting that many households have multiple cars, so many people have the option of using the other ICE car for the holiday road trip.


As for freedom, people can already live and visit where they want; they just tend to want to live close to work and shop close to home and so on.

I'm not convinced anyone can get 12p/mile out of an ICE car now.  50mpg at £1.50/l is 14p/mile

Explore a motorway services. Are you serious?

Be a bit more imaginative. You can charge places that aren't motorway services, so break road trips up by stopping at nice places whilst you charge. 

After 2 hours sat in a car then a short walk around a lake or beach or whatever will do everyone good. We usually do that when traveling with the kids anyway.

 But most people can’t be imaginative. If your journey is on a bank holiday down the M6 and M5 for example with your family and all and sundry are also on the road you aren’t going to get people taking detours. They need to get from Cumbria to Cornwall or wherever and they aren’t driving miles out of their way with their young kids in tow. So you need an infrastructure to support the weight of motorway traffic when the majority of it is EVs that allows people either far greater range than exists or simply has charging points in sufficient numbers to support the on road traffic in these sorts of peak scenarios. Service stations each need hundreds and hundreds of working charging points. I don’t think that’s contentious or even necessarily the full extent.

Once that happens I think majority EV ownership might become viable. But it’s an infrastructure issue. And as much as you now talk about ‘oh change your route and lifestyle to accommodate it’ that doesn’t work for most people and also doesn’t work as the number of EVs on the road increases. You aren’t going to want hundreds and hundreds of cars pottering off into Warwick cos they need a charge and it’s better to explore. It’s just backing up problems. People need ready charging on route. I think people can sacrifice charging taking half an hour. Over say 10 minutes to fill up. But they can’t be expected to queue for an hour for a charger then hang around another half hour. Doomed to failure without the infrastructure. 

Obviously that is true but the infrastructure wasn't there for petrol to replace horses. Why didn't that fail?


(I'm not arguing that infrastructure doesn't need improving - it does, and improvement is hit and miss).

Will hundreds of chargers actually be needed at each service station in the long term?
New electric cars have not dissimilar ranges to ICE vehicles. So surely electric cars will only need to charge as regularly* as cars fill up. But as you say takes longer if we use 30 minutes versus 10 minutes would mean 3x the number of rapid chargers needed as petrol pumps?  (Having not been through how many petrol pumps does a service station have 10? 20?) 

*will actually be lower than the number of petrol cars needing to fill up since many cars will charge overnight** and some will never/rarely need to use rapid chargers. 

**this infrastructure needs improving/a solution for those w.o. off-street parking - could argue is actually the bigger issue.

I suspect because the introduction of automobiles was very gradual and had time for the infrastructure to catch up. You now have 30 odd million cars on the road and growing….

I think the problem is bigger than you think. Currently on a long journey like that I’d probably fill up at the services after we’d stopped for a half hour lunch and toilet break. So get to services. Bob in for a sandwich, change and toilet the kids. Back into car, top up at station, which I think on a normal day is under 10 minutes, and then off.

That’s 40 minutes break.

I think you could achieve that in an EV only if there is a charger there and ready waiting for you. Which is obviously the challenge. 

Then you have the problem of what happens when you get where you are going. I’m not convinced that if we are staying with the in laws in rural Devon who don’t have ev charging will be happy for us to plug into their wall sockets…

This is the challenge for infrastructure…it’s fine now for early buyers. It becomes less fine unless the infrastructure improves in line with adoption. And we know already it isn’t. 

As I said I'm not arguing with the need for improved infrastructure (it is improving by the way), but I think you are exaggerating the problems with your claim that 'hundreds and hundreds' of chargers are needed at every service station, maybe I am missing something but I don't see why this many will actually be needed. 

Obviously there is not much anyone can do if the ability to charge a car exists cheaply but people don't take advantage (e.g outside 3-pin plug on a separate circuit costs a few hundred pounds - also useful for any other electric items one might use outside).

How many do you think will be needed to cope with weekend holiday traffic?

*new electric cars already have similar range - by the point being discussed electric cars ranges will likely be greater

At what cost?  The battery and drive motor account for around a third of the cost of building an EV. That's the stumbling block that needs to be overcome.  Tesla didn't recruit a large number of ex Apple employees for nothing. Selling a branded lifestyle to a cult is easier than selling a plain old motor. Far greater profit margins too. 

Petriix

TooManyPoints said:

Petriix said:

I look forward to some further irrational dispute with my figures. 

How do you get a "fuel" cost of just £10 for the the EV when diesel costs you £130. Assuming your £130 worth of diesel gets you around 1,100 miles (£1.70 a litre and 65mpg) where can you get charging for that distance for £10? Or are you including the savings made by running your washing machine during the night in that figure? I don't know much about the costs of charging an electric car (and have little incentive to find out). But just skimming through some basic information I see that to charge a small electric car (with a range of about 200 miles on that charge) would cost about £7, so 1,100 miles would cost about forty quid. Octopus Go (which, incidentally, is 7.5p per kwH and 41.39p per day where I live) suggests you can keep your costs down to 2p per mile. So even if that questionable claim were true, it would still cost you more than twice as much as you have quoted.  

I regularly make a journey of 185 miles from Kent to Dorset to visit a relative. Most of it is on either motorways or decent A roads (until I get to Dorset where there are neither). It can take me as little as three and a bit hours and as much as six hours. I don't usually make a stop unless the traffic is bad and if I do it is at the Rownham Services on the M27. That service area has a grand total of three chargers. In the summer one is lucky to be able to park there at all (once or twice I've had to abandon my stop and drive on), let alone charge up an EV. I doubt I could make that  trip on a single charge, even if all the stars were aligned, but assuming I might, I certainly wouldn't make it back on that single charge so I'm then faced with the problem of charging up to return. My relative doesn't have a charging point (and even if he did I don't expect him to pay to fuel my car). So I would have to seek one out and make my way there and back. In short, the idea of an EV to complete that journey (which is not unique among my travels) is a complete non-starter. This is by no means a long trip; it's certainly not Cumbria to Cornwall which I agree is probably an exceptional distance for mot people.

EVs are a nice gimmick and those with time on their hands will be happy to faff about seeking out charging points before and whilst going about their business or pleasure. Unfortunately, along with domestic heat pumps and anything else associated with the unachievable "Net Zero" concept, the policy has been devised by politicians who have absolutely no idea how their aim will be achieved and who have no concern for the practicalities (mainly because they are unlikely to affect them personally). And like much in the UK, the idea is grand but the implementation is largely ill-thought out (if it is thought out at all). There is no way that adequate public charging facilities will be provided before the number of EVs becomes unmanageable. Advising people to change their habits to accommodate this nonsense will not work because for many people such a change is impossible. The resulting shambles will add to the many which are enveloping this country and hastening its decline into mediocrity. 

£10 per month is the total that charging has cost me to date. This includes approximately 30% from free solar charging and a fair amount of free charging at supermarkets. My current rate on Go is fixed until January 2023.

I can achieve 185 miles without charging for 3 seasons - I drive slower where necessary. My average per full charge is around 200 miles but most of my mileage is within the county. I'm 130 miles from Central London and typically have 30-40% of my battery left on arrival.

Typically friends and relatives are happy to let me plug in (via a 3 pin socket) for a contribution (although many refuse the cash). I don't think I'd be willing to drive 200 miles to visit someone who would refuse.

In cases where it's not practical, there are typically public (or shared private) charging options. Family in Brighton live near Hove Station which has free charging for £7 parking. There are loads of options via Plugshare or similar.

I can honestly say that the cumulative time I've spent faffing with or waiting for chargers is lower than the amount of time it used to take to drive to the petrol station and stand there holding the hose to fill up - what an inelegant solution in comparison to just charging at home.

grumiofoundation

Thrugelmir said:

grumiofoundation said:

DB1904 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

Herzlos said:

DB1904 said:

Herzlos said:

I don't mean travelling over 100 miles without stopping is extreme, just that for most people it's not really an issue as they can have a coffee/lunch/explore or whatever. 

I do get that EVs may not be suited to a once a year trek across the country and back (although many EV owners don't find it a problem), but I'm not sure it's that big a deal to that many people given the inconvenience is twice a year. It's also worth noting that many households have multiple cars, so many people have the option of using the other ICE car for the holiday road trip.


As for freedom, people can already live and visit where they want; they just tend to want to live close to work and shop close to home and so on.

I'm not convinced anyone can get 12p/mile out of an ICE car now.  50mpg at £1.50/l is 14p/mile

Explore a motorway services. Are you serious?

Be a bit more imaginative. You can charge places that aren't motorway services, so break road trips up by stopping at nice places whilst you charge. 

After 2 hours sat in a car then a short walk around a lake or beach or whatever will do everyone good. We usually do that when traveling with the kids anyway.

 But most people can’t be imaginative. If your journey is on a bank holiday down the M6 and M5 for example with your family and all and sundry are also on the road you aren’t going to get people taking detours. They need to get from Cumbria to Cornwall or wherever and they aren’t driving miles out of their way with their young kids in tow. So you need an infrastructure to support the weight of motorway traffic when the majority of it is EVs that allows people either far greater range than exists or simply has charging points in sufficient numbers to support the on road traffic in these sorts of peak scenarios. Service stations each need hundreds and hundreds of working charging points. I don’t think that’s contentious or even necessarily the full extent.

Once that happens I think majority EV ownership might become viable. But it’s an infrastructure issue. And as much as you now talk about ‘oh change your route and lifestyle to accommodate it’ that doesn’t work for most people and also doesn’t work as the number of EVs on the road increases. You aren’t going to want hundreds and hundreds of cars pottering off into Warwick cos they need a charge and it’s better to explore. It’s just backing up problems. People need ready charging on route. I think people can sacrifice charging taking half an hour. Over say 10 minutes to fill up. But they can’t be expected to queue for an hour for a charger then hang around another half hour. Doomed to failure without the infrastructure. 

Obviously that is true but the infrastructure wasn't there for petrol to replace horses. Why didn't that fail?


(I'm not arguing that infrastructure doesn't need improving - it does, and improvement is hit and miss).

Will hundreds of chargers actually be needed at each service station in the long term?
New electric cars have not dissimilar ranges to ICE vehicles. So surely electric cars will only need to charge as regularly* as cars fill up. But as you say takes longer if we use 30 minutes versus 10 minutes would mean 3x the number of rapid chargers needed as petrol pumps?  (Having not been through how many petrol pumps does a service station have 10? 20?) 

*will actually be lower than the number of petrol cars needing to fill up since many cars will charge overnight** and some will never/rarely need to use rapid chargers. 

**this infrastructure needs improving/a solution for those w.o. off-street parking - could argue is actually the bigger issue.

I suspect because the introduction of automobiles was very gradual and had time for the infrastructure to catch up. You now have 30 odd million cars on the road and growing….

I think the problem is bigger than you think. Currently on a long journey like that I’d probably fill up at the services after we’d stopped for a half hour lunch and toilet break. So get to services. Bob in for a sandwich, change and toilet the kids. Back into car, top up at station, which I think on a normal day is under 10 minutes, and then off.

That’s 40 minutes break.

I think you could achieve that in an EV only if there is a charger there and ready waiting for you. Which is obviously the challenge. 

Then you have the problem of what happens when you get where you are going. I’m not convinced that if we are staying with the in laws in rural Devon who don’t have ev charging will be happy for us to plug into their wall sockets…

This is the challenge for infrastructure…it’s fine now for early buyers. It becomes less fine unless the infrastructure improves in line with adoption. And we know already it isn’t. 

As I said I'm not arguing with the need for improved infrastructure (it is improving by the way), but I think you are exaggerating the problems with your claim that 'hundreds and hundreds' of chargers are needed at every service station, maybe I am missing something but I don't see why this many will actually be needed. 

Obviously there is not much anyone can do if the ability to charge a car exists cheaply but people don't take advantage (e.g outside 3-pin plug on a separate circuit costs a few hundred pounds - also useful for any other electric items one might use outside).

How many do you think will be needed to cope with weekend holiday traffic?

*new electric cars already have similar range - by the point being discussed electric cars ranges will likely be greater

At what cost?  The battery and drive motor account for around a third of the cost of building an EV. That's the stumbling block that needs to be overcome.  Tesla didn't recruit a large number of ex Apple employees for nothing. Selling a branded lifestyle to a cult is easier than selling a plain old motor. Far greater profit margins too. 

I don't know what the cost will be, I agree that is a current stumbling block, and will need to improve but as infrastructure improves and more second hand electric cars hit the market will have to see what impact this has on affordability. 


Comments about cults come across a bit silly really and don't really add to the discussion.

Although has to be said 400,000 people in the UK is quite a big cult. 

Benny2020

If you top up and pay for 50 kwh are there actually 50 kwh in your battery? and in winter batteries suffer and its like driving with a hole in your petrol tank.

Ibrahim5

Transfer of battery responsibility on to the owner typically takes place at 8 years old. After this point you would either have to cope with a rubbish battery or pay a big repair bill. I would buy an 8+ years old EV but want a big discount. With current prices owners of new EVs get low fuel & VED costs. If prices remain high they also get low depreciation costs. Buyers of old EVs will then get high depreciation, rubbish battery and lots of risk. It's not clever buying old second hand EVs at top prices. I would question whether the owners of newish EVs on this forum are actually trying to artificially inflate second hand prices for their own benefit and cleverly dumping them before the 8 year deadline.

Grumpy_chap

Herzlos said:

It's also worth noting that the base EV will be higher spec and higher performance than the base ICE, I'd need to do a bit of research to figure out the closest parity point spec wise. 

It is probably valid to allow a bit of balancing for the equipment level, though not all purchasers will be that overly fussed.  

Balancing out for "performance" is likely a red-herring as you really mean acceleration off the line which, for the most part, is of limited real-world benefit.  Cruising at 70 mph is cruising at 70 mph however you cut it.  

grumiofoundation said:

I do see the posters point but it does assume average lifespan of EV/ICE car will be the same. 

With increases in battery technology will this be the case? Is it the case now for older electric vehicles?

Well, I've given a credit for the repurposing potential of the battery in the scrap value in the assessment of whole life depreciation.  It is a bit of a guess as to how realistic that is.  Firstly, home storage battery is already a product that is decreasing in price.  Secondly, that battery removed from an end-of-life EV will need some treatment to make it suitable for repurposing.  In 15 years, that value may well be less than the £3k I allowed.  I doubt it will be more.  Who knows?

Consideration of life for an EV car is less known entity, but I think considering the same life as an ICE car is a fair starting point.

We cannot consider improvements in battery technology for the life-span of current EV cars, unless you expect there would be some retrofit options for fitting a new battery in 15-years time to a 15 yo EV at that point.  That would, presumably, come attached to a fairly hefty bill and the equivalent of fitting a new engine to a 15 yo ICE.  Possible, but not something people regularly chose to do because the financial calculation does not support it.

The life of an ICE is not 15 years and then magic switch off.  In fact, based upon current battery technology, age-degradation of the battery has a real reduction in usability of the vehicles in a way that an ICE vehicle never has.  The biggest reason I think it is fair to consider a similar life-expectancy for current EV with current ICE is that it is not always the engine that causes an ICE to become unacceptable, but can often be other items that are equally as likely to fail on an EV. 

I will use as an example my 2007 Focus.  It is 15 yo, has 146k miles (or more), and the engine is absolutely as reliable as anything, but the things that will cause the car to become uneconomical to repair will be anything from the following:

• one front wing falling apart - rust
• air conditioning does not cool
• clutch will reach end of life
• no longer has a display for the mileage travelled as the LCD module failed
• electric windows are a bit ropey - always concerned one day they just wont go back up again
• non-engine mechanical parts, brakes etc.

I work to the basis that the most I can spend on repairs is £1,200 as that is equivalent to 4-months PCP on a brand new car.  More than that, then the brand new car would be the way to go.  This Focus as a complete car does not have much life left.

I also have a 1997 Fiesta which, without any of that electronics, has far more potential to life on.

I am quite sure that in 2037, someone with a 15 yo Corsa EV will be as reluctant to pay out £2k or any other hefty repair bill as someone with a 15 yo ICE Corsa.  That hefty repair bill could quite easily come from something that is not directly drive-train related.  All the non-drive train items like electronics, and seats wear etc will all be just as bad (or good) in the EV as in the ICE version.

DB1904

ComicGeek said:

DB1904 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

Herzlos said:

DB1904 said:

Herzlos said:

I don't mean travelling over 100 miles without stopping is extreme, just that for most people it's not really an issue as they can have a coffee/lunch/explore or whatever. 

I do get that EVs may not be suited to a once a year trek across the country and back (although many EV owners don't find it a problem), but I'm not sure it's that big a deal to that many people given the inconvenience is twice a year. It's also worth noting that many households have multiple cars, so many people have the option of using the other ICE car for the holiday road trip.


As for freedom, people can already live and visit where they want; they just tend to want to live close to work and shop close to home and so on.

I'm not convinced anyone can get 12p/mile out of an ICE car now.  50mpg at £1.50/l is 14p/mile

Explore a motorway services. Are you serious?

Be a bit more imaginative. You can charge places that aren't motorway services, so break road trips up by stopping at nice places whilst you charge. 

After 2 hours sat in a car then a short walk around a lake or beach or whatever will do everyone good. We usually do that when traveling with the kids anyway.

 But most people can’t be imaginative. If your journey is on a bank holiday down the M6 and M5 for example with your family and all and sundry are also on the road you aren’t going to get people taking detours. They need to get from Cumbria to Cornwall or wherever and they aren’t driving miles out of their way with their young kids in tow. So you need an infrastructure to support the weight of motorway traffic when the majority of it is EVs that allows people either far greater range than exists or simply has charging points in sufficient numbers to support the on road traffic in these sorts of peak scenarios. Service stations each need hundreds and hundreds of working charging points. I don’t think that’s contentious or even necessarily the full extent.

Once that happens I think majority EV ownership might become viable. But it’s an infrastructure issue. And as much as you now talk about ‘oh change your route and lifestyle to accommodate it’ that doesn’t work for most people and also doesn’t work as the number of EVs on the road increases. You aren’t going to want hundreds and hundreds of cars pottering off into Warwick cos they need a charge and it’s better to explore. It’s just backing up problems. People need ready charging on route. I think people can sacrifice charging taking half an hour. Over say 10 minutes to fill up. But they can’t be expected to queue for an hour for a charger then hang around another half hour. Doomed to failure without the infrastructure. 

Obviously that is true but the infrastructure wasn't there for petrol to replace horses. Why didn't that fail?


(I'm not arguing that infrastructure doesn't need improving - it does, and improvement is hit and miss).

Will hundreds of chargers actually be needed at each service station in the long term?
New electric cars have not dissimilar ranges to ICE vehicles. So surely electric cars will only need to charge as regularly* as cars fill up. But as you say takes longer if we use 30 minutes versus 10 minutes would mean 3x the number of rapid chargers needed as petrol pumps?  (Having not been through how many petrol pumps does a service station have 10? 20?) 

*will actually be lower than the number of petrol cars needing to fill up since many cars will charge overnight** and some will never/rarely need to use rapid chargers. 

**this infrastructure needs improving/a solution for those w.o. off-street parking - could argue is actually the bigger issue.

I suspect because the introduction of automobiles was very gradual and had time for the infrastructure to catch up. You now have 30 odd million cars on the road and growing….

I think the problem is bigger than you think. Currently on a long journey like that I’d probably fill up at the services after we’d stopped for a half hour lunch and toilet break. So get to services. Bob in for a sandwich, change and toilet the kids. Back into car, top up at station, which I think on a normal day is under 10 minutes, and then off.

That’s 40 minutes break.

I think you could achieve that in an EV only if there is a charger there and ready waiting for you. Which is obviously the challenge. 

Then you have the problem of what happens when you get where you are going. I’m not convinced that if we are staying with the in laws in rural Devon who don’t have ev charging will be happy for us to plug into their wall sockets…

This is the challenge for infrastructure…it’s fine now for early buyers. It becomes less fine unless the infrastructure improves in line with adoption. And we know already it isn’t. 

As I said I'm not arguing with the need for improved infrastructure (it is improving by the way), but I think you are exaggerating the problems with your claim that 'hundreds and hundreds' of chargers are needed at every service station, maybe I am missing something but I don't see why this many will actually be needed. 

Obviously there is not much anyone can do if the ability to charge a car exists cheaply but people don't take advantage (e.g outside 3-pin plug on a separate circuit costs a few hundred pounds - also useful for any other electric items one might use outside).

How many do you think will be needed to cope with weekend holiday traffic?

The furthest I've travelled on holiday in the UK is 220 miles - I wouldn't need to charge on the way for that, just charge when I get there. Same on the way back. If I'm travelling to see family then the furthest is a 160miles round trip - I don't even have to charge for that.

How many people actually travel those distances on a regular basis? If it's one day a year then building in a short stop isn't really much of an issue. I just don't believe that, at a time when there will be that many EVs on the road, a significant proportion of them will need to charge at exactly the same time.

I can certainly see charging stations providing bookable time slots for a premium rate in the future. Those who aren't in a hurry, or want to save money, will queue up for the cheaper ones.

And how many EV's have a Range in excess of 220 miles, how many will do north of England to the south coast on one charge?

Petriix

DB1904 said:

ComicGeek said:

DB1904 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

grumiofoundation said:

iwb100 said:

Herzlos said:

DB1904 said:

Herzlos said:

I don't mean travelling over 100 miles without stopping is extreme, just that for most people it's not really an issue as they can have a coffee/lunch/explore or whatever. 

I do get that EVs may not be suited to a once a year trek across the country and back (although many EV owners don't find it a problem), but I'm not sure it's that big a deal to that many people given the inconvenience is twice a year. It's also worth noting that many households have multiple cars, so many people have the option of using the other ICE car for the holiday road trip.


As for freedom, people can already live and visit where they want; they just tend to want to live close to work and shop close to home and so on.

I'm not convinced anyone can get 12p/mile out of an ICE car now.  50mpg at £1.50/l is 14p/mile

Explore a motorway services. Are you serious?

Be a bit more imaginative. You can charge places that aren't motorway services, so break road trips up by stopping at nice places whilst you charge. 

After 2 hours sat in a car then a short walk around a lake or beach or whatever will do everyone good. We usually do that when traveling with the kids anyway.

 But most people can’t be imaginative. If your journey is on a bank holiday down the M6 and M5 for example with your family and all and sundry are also on the road you aren’t going to get people taking detours. They need to get from Cumbria to Cornwall or wherever and they aren’t driving miles out of their way with their young kids in tow. So you need an infrastructure to support the weight of motorway traffic when the majority of it is EVs that allows people either far greater range than exists or simply has charging points in sufficient numbers to support the on road traffic in these sorts of peak scenarios. Service stations each need hundreds and hundreds of working charging points. I don’t think that’s contentious or even necessarily the full extent.

Once that happens I think majority EV ownership might become viable. But it’s an infrastructure issue. And as much as you now talk about ‘oh change your route and lifestyle to accommodate it’ that doesn’t work for most people and also doesn’t work as the number of EVs on the road increases. You aren’t going to want hundreds and hundreds of cars pottering off into Warwick cos they need a charge and it’s better to explore. It’s just backing up problems. People need ready charging on route. I think people can sacrifice charging taking half an hour. Over say 10 minutes to fill up. But they can’t be expected to queue for an hour for a charger then hang around another half hour. Doomed to failure without the infrastructure. 

Obviously that is true but the infrastructure wasn't there for petrol to replace horses. Why didn't that fail?


(I'm not arguing that infrastructure doesn't need improving - it does, and improvement is hit and miss).

Will hundreds of chargers actually be needed at each service station in the long term?
New electric cars have not dissimilar ranges to ICE vehicles. So surely electric cars will only need to charge as regularly* as cars fill up. But as you say takes longer if we use 30 minutes versus 10 minutes would mean 3x the number of rapid chargers needed as petrol pumps?  (Having not been through how many petrol pumps does a service station have 10? 20?) 

*will actually be lower than the number of petrol cars needing to fill up since many cars will charge overnight** and some will never/rarely need to use rapid chargers. 

**this infrastructure needs improving/a solution for those w.o. off-street parking - could argue is actually the bigger issue.

I suspect because the introduction of automobiles was very gradual and had time for the infrastructure to catch up. You now have 30 odd million cars on the road and growing….

I think the problem is bigger than you think. Currently on a long journey like that I’d probably fill up at the services after we’d stopped for a half hour lunch and toilet break. So get to services. Bob in for a sandwich, change and toilet the kids. Back into car, top up at station, which I think on a normal day is under 10 minutes, and then off.

That’s 40 minutes break.

I think you could achieve that in an EV only if there is a charger there and ready waiting for you. Which is obviously the challenge. 

Then you have the problem of what happens when you get where you are going. I’m not convinced that if we are staying with the in laws in rural Devon who don’t have ev charging will be happy for us to plug into their wall sockets…

This is the challenge for infrastructure…it’s fine now for early buyers. It becomes less fine unless the infrastructure improves in line with adoption. And we know already it isn’t. 

As I said I'm not arguing with the need for improved infrastructure (it is improving by the way), but I think you are exaggerating the problems with your claim that 'hundreds and hundreds' of chargers are needed at every service station, maybe I am missing something but I don't see why this many will actually be needed. 

Obviously there is not much anyone can do if the ability to charge a car exists cheaply but people don't take advantage (e.g outside 3-pin plug on a separate circuit costs a few hundred pounds - also useful for any other electric items one might use outside).

How many do you think will be needed to cope with weekend holiday traffic?

The furthest I've travelled on holiday in the UK is 220 miles - I wouldn't need to charge on the way for that, just charge when I get there. Same on the way back. If I'm travelling to see family then the furthest is a 160miles round trip - I don't even have to charge for that.

How many people actually travel those distances on a regular basis? If it's one day a year then building in a short stop isn't really much of an issue. I just don't believe that, at a time when there will be that many EVs on the road, a significant proportion of them will need to charge at exactly the same time.

I can certainly see charging stations providing bookable time slots for a premium rate in the future. Those who aren't in a hurry, or want to save money, will queue up for the cheaper ones.

And how many EV's have a Range in excess of 220 miles, how many will do north of England to the south coast on one charge?

Almost all current models have range greater than 220 miles. Almost no one needs to drive from the north of England to the south coast without charging. 

Herzlos

Ibrahim5 said:

Transfer of battery responsibility on to the owner typically takes place at 8 years old. After this point you would either have to cope with a rubbish battery or pay a big repair bill. I would buy an 8+ years old EV but want a big discount. With current prices owners of new EVs get low fuel & VED costs. If prices remain high they also get low depreciation costs. Buyers of old EVs will then get high depreciation, rubbish battery and lots of risk. It's not clever buying old second hand EVs at top prices. I would question whether the owners of newish EVs on this forum are actually trying to artificially inflate second hand prices for their own benefit and cleverly dumping them before the 8 year deadline.

An 8 year warranty doesn't make the battery junk the day after, just like a 3 year mechanical warranty doesn't mean the engine will blow after 37 months. 

The remaining range will be priced in, though at some point it'd degrade below a usable point for everyone. 

It'd certainly be wise for anyone buying an out of warranty EV to test the battery condition before payment though.

11 year old Leafs (which have a pretty primitive battery monitoring system and no cooling) have about half of their original range, so more modern cars with better battery management will likely see less depreciation that that - maybe 3%/year.

I actually suspect it'll be something other than the battery that'll cause most EVs to be scrapped.